Discussions

[MontyB]

The Russians advance is still pretty slow and they should have solved the logistical problems by now. Maybe there are other reasons for why they are not moving very fast. The Ukrainian resistance, I read a report claiming the Russians are trying to disguise their fuel trucks as regular trucks. True or not, I don't know. But it might explain why the Russians can walk faster than what their vehicles move.

Yes, the information is contradicting; shall Poland and other NATO countries give Ukraine fighter jets or not. First the Ukraine should get them, a few hours later, No jets for the Ukrainians. Now I hear they are getting jets.

I found this interesting but it creates more questions than answers...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t4OhtZKHalU

It seems Ukraine is getting the aircraft, wonder if this will see Poland move to westernize it's equipment further.

Some other interesting stuff...
https://www.euractiv.com/section/de...out-abandoning-opt-out-from-european-defence/

And

https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/03/07/vladimir-putin-agrees-to-end-war-in-ukraine-on-conditions/?amp

Regarding Russian vehicles I have noticed that there are a lot of non-military vehicles in their supply convoys and they seem to be trying to up armour them with anything they can get their hands on, I also notice that a lot of the destroyed MBT's seem to have been hit in the top of the turret which I assume is the javelins top attack capability or does Ukraine have other ATGMs with that capacity?

 

[MontyB]

So here is what confuses me, this cannot be the Russian "standing" army, the professional core if you will.
Certainly they were used in the early phases in the south but it seems they are relying on some half trained conscript force for the rest.
So where are the best/trained Russian troops, where is the air force?

 

[BritinBritain]

It was said that the May Day Parade during the Soviet Era, Missle launchers, tanks, bombers fighters and other kit just went round and round in a big circle, to give the impression they have more equipment then they truly had.

 

[MontyB]

It was said that the May Day Parade during the Soviet Era, Missle launchers, tanks, bombers fighters and other kit just went round and round in a big circle, to give the impression they have more equipment then they truly had.

They wouldn't be the first, Rommel did that during his arrival parade in Tripoli.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

So here is what confuses me, this cannot be the Russian "standing" army, the professional core if you will.
Certainly they were used in the early phases in the south but it seems they are relying on some half trained conscript force for the rest.
So where are the best/trained Russian troops, where is the air force?

I have asked myself that since the war began; where is the air force? The Russian should have achieved air superiority early in the war, but they haven't. The first strikes against air bases, air defenses, command/control, and naval bases just stopped.

The other question; where are the well trained troops. Have they suffered a high number of casualties so they have been pulled back to be saved if the war escalate to a war between NATO and Russia?

I heard something strange; the reason for why the Russian offensive has stalled is; the Russian army bought cheap Chinese tires for their trucks.

 

[MontyB]

I have asked myself that since the war began; where is the air force? The Russian should have achieved air superiority early in the war, but they haven't. The first strikes against air bases, air defenses, command/control, and naval bases just stopped.

The other question; where are the well trained troops. Have they suffered a high number of casualties so they have been pulled back to be saved if the war escalate to a war between NATO and Russia?

I heard something strange; the reason for why the Russian offensive has stalled is; the Russian army bought cheap Chinese tires for their trucks.

It is possible that they have suffered a high number of casualties, if you recall on day one they were reporting landings near Odessa and that parts of it were in Russian hands, what happened there, they also reported that one transport containing airborne troops had been shot down in the area and that another had crashed on the border.
It seems that Russia lost a lot of it's early encounters in the south and that it's airborne troops failed to capture or hold almost all of it's objectives.

As for tyres, I read that as well but even the cheapest of Chinese tyres should be good for 500km, but none of this covers why or how people are listening to Russian units looking to swap food and fuel and why they seem lost.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

It is possible that they have suffered a high number of casualties, if you recall on day one they were reporting landings near Odessa and that parts of it were in Russian hands, what happened there, they also reported that one transport containing airborne troops had been shot down in the area and that another had crashed on the border.
It seems that Russia lost a lot of it's early encounters in the south and that it's airborne troops failed to capture or hold almost all of it's objectives.

As for tyres, I read that as well but even the cheapest of Chinese tyres should be good for 500km, but none of this covers why or how people are listening to Russian units looking to swap food and fuel and why they seem lost.

I heard about the Ukrainians were able to shoot down two IL-76 outside Kyiv and showed pictures of the wrecks. But that can be pics from the Ukrainian IL-76 that got shot down outside Luhansk. If the Ukrainians downed two IL-76 with airborne troops inside. The Russian lost a lot of airborne soldiers in one blow. If I remember correctly an IL-76 can carry about 200 paratroopers.

 

[MontyB]

I heard about the Ukrainians were able to shoot down two IL-76 outside Kyiv and showed pictures of the wrecks. But that can be pics from the Ukrainian IL-76 that got shot down outside Luhansk. If the Ukrainians downed two IL-76 with airborne troops inside. The Russian lost a lot of airborne soldiers in one blow. If I remember correctly an IL-76 can carry about 200 paratroopers.

The speculation was that they had lost two companies in the air plus whatever ground casualties they had incurred.

Here is an interesting article on the cost so far...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ru...-than-a-fortnight/FPLDQLOGS6K672272FWSBB2C4M/

Hopefully the link will work.

This also seemed interesting...
https://www.independent.ie/world-ne...-ukraine-as-army-suffers-losses-41421844.html

https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/...iles-in-six-days-here-s-the-result-1.10657786

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

When this war commenced, I believed the Russians would attack airbases, air defenses, command/control, and naval bases. They did so, but suddenly they stopped doing that and the Russian air force disappeared. The Russian military doctrine focus a lot on the use of indirect fire to massively hit the enemy before attacking with mechanized forces in echelons. The Russian focus a lot on deep operations to get Russian forces deep behind the enemy's area to interrupt supply lines. The Russian committed the second echelon quite early. Did the first echelon with airborne forces and other better trained units a lot of casualties that forced the Russians to commit the conscripts to save the best trained forces if this escalate to a much bigger war?

I thought this would a pretty fast war and the Russians would come out of it as the successful one. I have for the last three-four days changed my mind. The Ukrainians may pull this off. The time is working for them, not for the Russians. As long as the Ukrainians receive the military aid and continue to hit the Russian supply lines. It seems the Ukrainians are really going for the Russian tank trucks. I have also noticed the Russian communications are not that good and probably being jammed.

 

[MontyB]

When this war commenced, I believed the Russians would attack airbases, air defenses, command/control, and naval bases. They did so, but suddenly they stopped doing that and the Russian air force disappeared. The Russian military doctrine focus a lot on the use of indirect fire to massively hit the enemy before attacking with mechanized forces in echelons. The Russian focus a lot on deep operations to get Russian forces deep behind the enemy's area to interrupt supply lines. The Russian committed the second echelon quite early. Did the first echelon with airborne forces and other better trained units a lot of casualties that forced the Russians to commit the conscripts to save the best trained forces if this escalate to a much bigger war?

I thought this would a pretty fast war and the Russians would come out of it as the successful one. I have for the last three-four days changed my mind. The Ukrainians may pull this off. The time is working for them, not for the Russians. As long as the Ukrainians receive the military aid and continue to hit the Russian supply lines. It seems the Ukrainians are really going for the Russian tank trucks. I have also noticed the Russian communications are not that good and probably being jammed.

I admit I thought it would all be over in 3-4 days, the Russians would roll over the border and under a relentless armour and air bombardment be in Kiev in 3-4 days.

According to US figures casualties are not the issue, they are talking 2000-4000...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...s-likely-have-died-in-ukraine-us-general-says

The communications discussion is interesting, apparently the armies encrypted communications has failed because they have taken out their own towers...

https://news.sky.com/story/russians...ations-system-during-kharkiv-assault-12560577

There is some grade A incompetence going on in the Russian military and it isn't helped by the number of senior officers KIA.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/nine-russian-generals-killed-war-26417757

 

[BritinBritain]

As I mentioned before, with the amount of kit and troops the Russians supposedly have on hand, they should have rolled over the Ukraine in four or five days, a week tops. So whats happening, are the assets on theatre substandard, are the troops on theatre substandard along with their commanders?

As any battlefield commander will tell you, logistics is the key, supply and resupply, without efficient logistics in place they may as well give up and go home

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Monty; I missed your question about anti-tank weapons. I think the NLAW can also strike the top of the vehicle as well.

I wonder what Zhukov and Konjev should say if they saw performance of the Russian army in this war.

 

[MontyB]

Monty; I missed your question about anti-tank weapons. I think the NLAW can also strike the top of the vehicle as well.

I wonder what Zhukov and Konjev should say if they saw performance of the Russian army in this war.

Looking at the specs, it has top attack mode and comes with a 20-year warranty for extra value.

My guess is that if Zhukov and the team took a look at what their army became they probably would have said "we quit", this has to be a major embarrassment for Putin and the Russian military command.

As I mentioned before, with the amount of kit and troops the Russians have supposedly have on hand, they should have rolled over the Ukraine in four or five days, a week tops. So whats happening, are the assets on theatre substandard, are the troops on theatre substandard along with their commanders?

As any battlefield commander will tell you, logistics is the key, supply and resupply, without efficient logistics in place they may as well give up and go home

Another thing I am having trouble with is the makeup of Russian forces as the MBTs that are being destroyed are mostly T-72s, they have roughly 5000 T-80s and T-90s why aren't they appearing on the battlefield?

It is this that leads me to believe that it is mostly second-tier troops, conscripts and reservist formations that are being used.

There is no doubt that if you are barely a 2-hour drive from your border and are already having logistics problems you probably should have just stayed home, Russian logistics seem to almost be nonexistent but at the moment Russian tactics don't seem to have evolved much further than 12th-century siege warfare so maybe they don't "do" logistics?

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Looking at the specs, it has top attack mode and comes with a 20-year warranty for extra value.

My guess is that if Zhukov and the team took a look at what their army became they probably would have said "we quit", this has to be a major embarrassment for Putin and the Russian military command.



Another thing I am having trouble with is the makeup of Russian forces as the MBTs that are being destroyed are mostly T-72s, they have roughly 5000 T-80s and T-90s why aren't they appearing on the battlefield?

It is this that leads me to believe that it is mostly second-tier troops, conscripts and reservist formations that are being used.

There is no doubt that if you are barely a 2-hour drive from your border and are already having logistics problems you probably should have just stayed home, Russian logistics seem to almost be nonexistent but at the moment Russian tactics don't seem to have evolved much further than 12th-century siege warfare so maybe they don't "do" logistics?

I haven't seen any Armata tanks either, but they are few Armata tanks. Maybe it still has issues like most new things have.

I remember when I watched the first Gulf War on the news and many years later the second Gulf war. I didn't get the same amount of WTF?? and WTH?? when I watched those wars, but now I get....surprises on a daily bases.

I begin to think the entire northern front being a decoy and used to "fix" the Ukrainian forces in one place. The major attack against Ukraine comes later from the south. The Russian doctrine stipulate to focus on successful sectors and they are deploying their forces to those sectors

 

[lljadw]

Several important points are missing
1 The Russians had only a small force available
2 Russia can afford only a fast,short war with few casualties and fighting between small forces ( Russian and Ukrainian ) : the longer the war,the more Ukrainian victims and thus the bigger the hostility of the Ukrainians .
These points limited Russia's possibilities which were down to eliminate Zelensky and hoping that the Ukrainians would applaud the invading Russian army .
Zelensky rules still Ukraine and every day Ukraine is becoming stronger .
Even if the Ukrainian army is defeated, the war will go on : partisans will kill every Russian they can kill and Russia has not the forces to secure the country .
The future is black for the Kremlin .
And logistics are not decisive, neither are ''bad '' tactics .
It is not : how to defeat the Ukrainian army, but how to make docile a country of 45 million people .

 

[MontyB]

I haven't seen any Armata tanks either, but they are few Armata tanks. Maybe it still has issues like most new things have.

I remember when I watched the first Gulf War on the news and many years later the second Gulf war. I didn't get the same amount of WTF?? and WTH?? when I watched those wars, but now I get....surprises on a daily bases.

I begin to think the entire northern front being a decoy and used to "fix" the Ukrainian forces in one place. The major attack against Ukraine comes later from the south. The Russian doctrine stipulate to focus on successful sectors and they are deploying their forces to those sectors

That may be the case but if it is it failed as well because from what I can gather the bulk of the Ukrainian army is still on station in eastern Ukraine.

An interesting write up...
https://defence-blog.com/improved-armor-doesnt-work-on-russian-tanks/

Several important points are missing
1 The Russians had only a small force available
2 Russia can afford only a fast,short war with few casualties and fighting between small forces ( Russian and Ukrainian ) : the longer the war,the more Ukrainian victims and thus the bigger the hostility of the Ukrainians .
These points limited Russia's possibilities which were down to eliminate Zelensky and hoping that the Ukrainians would applaud the invading Russian army .
Zelensky rules still Ukraine and every day Ukraine is becoming stronger .
Even if the Ukrainian army is defeated, the war will go on : partisans will kill every Russian they can kill and Russia has not the forces to secure the country .
The future is black for the Kremlin .
And logistics are not decisive, neither are ''bad '' tactics .
It is not : how to defeat the Ukrainian army, but how to make docile a country of 45 million people .

1. I am not sure I would describe 170000 troops a small force.
2. I think most of us thought the war would be over in 3-5 days with Russian forces in Kiev and that they would employ a three front strategy, Crimea up to Kiev, Belarus down to Kiev and an offensive in eastern Ukraine to hold the Ukrainian army in place, essentially it would involve fast moving armoured columns operating under an air umbrella.

I guess Putin will get his wish to keep Ukraine out of NATO as it is fast becoming apparent that all the Ukraine needs from the west is it's weapons.

The problem in ending this is that Putin has achieved nothing to allow a face saving exit from Ukraine and if he just calls it off with nothing to show and having put Russia's economy in the trash he will probably receive a polonium enema by the end of the week.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

That may be the case but if it is it failed as well because from what I can gather the bulk of the Ukrainian army is still on station in eastern Ukraine.

An interesting write up...
https://defence-blog.com/improved-armor-doesnt-work-on-russian-tanks/



1. I am not sure I would describe 170000 troops a small force.
2. I think most of us thought the war would be over in 3-5 days with Russian forces in Kiev and that they would employ a three front strategy, Crimea up to Kiev, Belarus down to Kiev and an offensive in eastern Ukraine to hold the Ukrainian army in place, essentially it would involve fast moving armoured columns operating under an air umbrella.

I guess Putin will get his wish to keep Ukraine out of NATO as it is fast becoming apparent that all the Ukraine needs from the west is it's weapons.

The problem in ending this is that Putin has achieved nothing to allow a face saving exit from Ukraine and if he just calls it off with nothing to show and having put Russia's economy in the trash he will probably receive a polonium enema by the end of the week.

I don't know if the Russians are "fixing" the Ukrainian forces in the north and the main attack against Kiev comes from the south. I am trying to find an explanation for why the Russians got huge logistical problems very early. These problems usually appear within four-five days into the conflict.

 

[MontyB]

I don't know if the Russians are "fixing" the Ukrainian forces in the north and the main attack against Kiev comes from the south. I am trying to find an explanation for why the Russians got huge logistical problems very early. These problems usually appear within four-five days into the conflict.

I am as stumped and confused as you are on the Russian campaign to date, nothing they are doing makes any sense.
Maybe lljadw is right in that for some reason the Russians thought they would be welcomed and that they genuinely thought the Ukrainian military were hopeless.

One aspect we haven't really discussed is the affect of western intelligence on Ukraine's operations, it is pretty obvious Russian forces can't sneeze without the west knowing about it.

Another set of images...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...russia-tanks-ambushed-ukraine-forces-kyiv-war

And a confirmation of the previous link...

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-s-commander-of-tank-regiment-was-killed-near-brovary/

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I am as stumped and confused as you are on the Russian campaign to date, nothing they are doing makes any sense.
Maybe lljadw is right in that for some reason the Russians thought they would be welcomed and that they genuinely thought the Ukrainian military were hopeless.

One aspect we haven't really discussed is the affect of western intelligence on Ukraine's operations, it is pretty obvious Russian forces can't sneeze without the west knowing about it.

Another set of images...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...russia-tanks-ambushed-ukraine-forces-kyiv-war

And a confirmation of the previous link...

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-s-commander-of-tank-regiment-was-killed-near-brovary/

Yes, some Russian soldiers have said they thought they were on an exercise. It has a significant importance for the Ukrainians to get the intel from the west. From what I have heard through media, the intel has so far being really good.

The Russian are now accusing the Ukrainians for being Nazis/drug addicts, preparing to get Nukes, and the latest I heard was something about B-weapons, which are in all practical terms diseases, did some Russian got a cold while invading Ukraine. Pathogens (B-weapons) are quite unpractical to use at this stage of the war.

 

[lljadw]

That may be the case but if it is it failed as well because from what I can gather the bulk of the Ukrainian army is still on station in eastern Ukraine.

An interesting write up...
https://defence-blog.com/improved-armor-doesnt-work-on-russian-tanks/



1. I am not sure I would describe 170000 troops a small force.
2. I think most of us thought the war would be over in 3-5 days with Russian forces in Kiev and that they would employ a three front strategy, Crimea up to Kiev, Belarus down to Kiev and an offensive in eastern Ukraine to hold the Ukrainian army in place, essentially it would involve fast moving armoured columns operating under an air umbrella.

I guess Putin will get his wish to keep Ukraine out of NATO as it is fast becoming apparent that all the Ukraine needs from the west is it's weapons.

The problem in ending this is that Putin has achieved nothing to allow a face saving exit from Ukraine and if he just calls it off with nothing to show and having put Russia's economy in the trash he will probably receive a polonium enema by the end of the week.

1 170000 men is not enough to defeat the Ukrainian army AND to occupy and pacify Ukraine . It is 10 western divisions to defeat,occupy and pacify a country of 40 million + people.
2 Putin has not more men ( total Russian manpower is 1 million ).
3 Even if he had more men,he could not use them, as the bigger the army means the slower the advance .
From all this,my guess is that the invasion was a repetition of the invasion of Afghanistan: they invaded Afghanistan with 25000 men,killed the local Quisling and replaced him by another one,hoping that this would be enough .
It wasn't .
Now,they tried to kill the ruler of Ukraine ,they failed and invaded with 170000 men ,hoping that these would be at the western borders of Ukraine in a week ,and that everything would occur without much casualties ( the less Ukrainian casualties the less Ukrainian opposition and the less whining by the Western media ):but they failed .
Why did they use these tactics ? Simply :because they knew that a full-scale war would fail and because they hoped that the only alternative ( a police action ) would succeed .
That's why I am still convinced that failure or success depended more on what the Ukrainians would and could do .
Three other questions are still avoided by our media ,who as usual,spread only propaganda .
1 WHY did the Russians invade Ukraine ?
2 WHY did the invasion happen at the end of February ,with the Rasputitza looming,
and not in December or January?
3 WHY took the Russian build-up so long ? Why took it weeks to concentrate 170000 men on Russia's western border ?

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