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MontyB said:
It really is hard to get a read on this campaign, given that the Russians have been fighting in East Ukraine for the last eight years I find it hard to believe they didn't have a better understanding of the combat capability of Ukraine's military.
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I think Putin and the Russian military expected to be viewed as liberators, especially among the Russian speaking population. That didn't happen

We have a Ukrainian member here, He is usually posting pictures of WWII sites. I wonder if we will see him again
 
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BritinBritain said:
What a target for a Vulcan with parachute retarding bombs, as I saw on Salisbury Plain in 1966 on a mocked up convoy.
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That line up would be a sitting target for guy on a hangglider and a Molotov cocktail.

The rumours remain that the Russians are suffering food, fuel shortages and lack functioning secure communication, whether that is a known or just speculation I don't know.
 
There are so many rumors and the propaganda. I took a closer look at the casualties, we can't trust these numbers, the Russians have suffered about 6000 KIAs (yesterday) in almost a week. The Soviets suffered about 13 000 to 15 000 KIAs during the Afghanistan war and that war lasted for nine years. Let us assume these numbers are correct, this will be a painful affair for the Russians.

The convoy seems to be stalled by Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainians have UAV's, the same used in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. If a few of these can be armed with cluster munition and hit some of the vehicles. The trucks loaded with ammunition will create a chain reaction among other vehicles if they continue to park and drive bumper to bumper
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
There are so many rumors and the propaganda. I took a closer look at the casualties, we can't trust these numbers, the Russians have suffered about 6000 KIAs (yesterday) in almost a week. The Soviets suffered about 13 000 to 15 000 KIAs during the Afghanistan war and that war lasted for nine years. Let us assume these numbers are correct, this will be a painful affair for the Russians.

The convoy seems to be stalled by Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainians have UAV's, the same used in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. If a few of these can be armed with cluster munition and hit some of the vehicles. The trucks loaded with ammunition will create a chain reaction among other vehicles if they continue to park and drive bumper to bumper
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For what it is worth I found this interesting....

https://youtu.be/poXV-cwbQDA
 
MontyB said:
That line up would be a sitting target for guy on a hangglider and a Molotov cocktail.

The rumours remain that the Russians are suffering food, fuel shortages and lack functioning secure communication, whether that is a known or just speculation I don't know.
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No doubt but a Vulcan bomber is much more interesting to watch:smil:

From what Russia has revealed the amount of kit on hand and the number of troops armed and ready, they should have rolled over the whole of Ukraine in less then a week, possibility propaganda? I must admit I'm not very impressed with Russia's military capability so far, especially their logistical resupply and as reported, Russian troops are surrendering and damaging their equipment.
 
BritinBritain said:
No doubt but a Vulcan bomber is much more interesting to watch:smil:

From what Russia has revealed the amount of kit on hand and the number of troops armed and ready, they should have rolled over the whole of Ukraine in less then a week, possibility propaganda? I must admit I'm not very impressed with Russia's military capability so far, especially their logistical resupply and as reported, Russian troops are surrendering and damaging their equipment.
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The problem is we don't know the extent of the propaganda, if Ukraine says it killed 1000 Russians, Russia says it lost 10 from that at best we can determine the casualties most likely as more than 10 but less than 1000.
I am dubious about equipment losses as they both have similar vehicles so a burnt out Ukrainian truck looks the same as a burnt out Russian truck unless you can see it markings.
I have seen a few captured Russian troops (or at least reported as Russian) but nothing on a scale to indicate large numbers so at this point I generally regard it as propaganda.

That said the slow speed of the advance and the inability capture anything of significance is rather telling, it is about a 150km drive from the Russian border to Kiev and less from Belarus and a week into it they still aren't there it does indicate something is wrong, but then why aren't the Ukrainians throwing the kitchen sink at it, it would be the perfect target for their drones.

While I agree about the Vulcan I still would have preferred a couple of Warthogs.
 
Another thing that surprises me is; why aren't the Russian trying to use their air force to reduce the amount of military aid that entering the country. I assume the aid is coming in from Poland.

All these years we talked about the steamrolling Russians....
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Another thing that surprises me is; why aren't the Russian trying to use their air force to reduce the amount of military aid that entering the country. I assume the aid is coming in from Poland.

All these years we talked about the steamrolling Russians....
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Hard to say, we know they have received more UAVs from Turkey and Slovakia has provided aircraft, I guess Poland would be the most logical route for equipment via Sweden, Lithuania and Germany, Hungary is the only bordering country that won't allow weapons to transit?

We weren't entirely wrong they seem to be moving at the speed of a steam roller.

Anyway another point of view.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03...l-a-40-mile-russian-army-convoy-a-big-target/
 
That's another thing we hear a lot about the Russian plans seem to not be working well, but they have had months and maybe years to plan for an invasion of Ukraine. It seems to be working better in the south. Can the convoy be a decoy? The Russians want the Ukrainians to come out to attack it, but it seems the Ukrainians aren't biting, mostly because they probably lack the resources to do so.

I have noticed another thing about the convoy. When I was in the army; every time we stopped a vehicle march, we turned off the roads and put out our camouflage nets around the vehicles. We didn't park our vehicles like we were at a shopping mall either
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
That's another thing we hear a lot about the Russian plans seem to not be working well, but they have had months and maybe years to plan for an invasion of Ukraine. It seems to be working better in the south. Can the convoy be a decoy? The Russians want the Ukrainians to come out to attack it, but it seems the Ukrainians aren't biting, mostly because they probably lack the resources to do so.

I have noticed another thing about the convoy. When I was in the army; every time we stopped a vehicle march, we turned off the roads and put out our camouflage nets around the vehicles. We didn't park our vehicles like we were at a shopping mall either
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I wondered that myself, there is just something not quite right with this convoy.
It makes no sense that there is a giant pile of vehicles crawling along a road with no apparent purpose, if it isn't under attack why has it taken a week to carry out a 3 hour road trip.
 
MontyB said:
The problem is we don't know the extent of the propaganda, if Ukraine says it killed 1000 Russians, Russia says it lost 10 from that at best we can determine the casualties most likely as more than 10 but less than 1000.
I am dubious about equipment losses as they both have similar vehicles so a burnt out Ukrainian truck looks the same as a burnt out Russian truck unless you can see it markings.
I have seen a few captured Russian troops (or at least reported as Russian) but nothing on a scale to indicate large numbers so at this point I generally regard it as propaganda.

That said the slow speed of the advance and the inability capture anything of significance is rather telling, it is about a 150km drive from the Russian border to Kiev and less from Belarus and a week into it they still aren't there it does indicate something is wrong, but then why aren't the Ukrainians throwing the kitchen sink at it, it would be the perfect target for their drones.

While I agree about the Vulcan I still would have preferred a couple of Warthogs.
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There's nothing like the ""Vulcan Howl"" when she's on full chat, amazing aeroplane.

I read today that the Russian advance has staled because they have run out of fuel. I must admit I am wondering why the Ukrainians are not going all out against the Russians, could they be having supply problems or lack of effective kit?
 
BritinBritain said:
There's nothing like the ""Vulcan Howl"" when she's on full chat, amazing aeroplane.

I read today that the Russian advance has staled because they have run out of fuel. I must admit I am wondering why the Ukrainians are not going all out against the Russians, could they be having supply problems or lack of effective kit?
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My guess is that the lack of air support has relegated them to fixed positions, that said the Russian air force is conspicuous by its absense as well but that may be due to the presence of large numbers of stingers.
I have been listening to some reports that the rasputitsa has set in making travel in the north more difficult but it is less of an issue in the south where the Russians are have more success.

Still Putin assures us that everything is going to plan and on schedule.

Regarding the Vulcan I had to laugh when watching a documentary on the raid on Port Stanley and the lead Vulcan couldn't fix a leak in the cabin window, they tried to fix it with a jacket and the plastic wrap from the crews sandwiches after which they turned back.
 
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I am curious how long will last the enthusiasm in the West to support Ukraine : very soon a lot of parents will have to decide if they will heat their children or if they will give them food .
The German minister of economy, energy and also climate action ( he is a Green ) Robert Habeck said Thursday that he was not in favor of banning energy imports from Russia .And he gave the following figures :
Russia provides Germany with
55 % of its natural gas (Germany's production of natural gas is meaningless )
50 % of its coal ( the German coal production has stopped )
and 35 % of the oil (Germany has no oil )
consumed by its inhabitants .
Source is :telesurenglish.net
And maybe senator Graham (GOP SC ) should stop its exhortations to kill Putin .
After all, there is a strong possibility that after the war, US will still have to do business with Putin .
Meanwhile Biden is asking Congress to take an additional 10 billion dollar from the American people to give it to Ukraine .
He forgets that there are in November mid term elections .
 
MontyB said:
Regarding the Vulcan I had to laugh when watching a documentary on the raid on Port Stanley and the lead Vulcan couldn't fix a leak in the cabin window, they tried to fix it with a jacket and the plastic wrap from the crews sandwiches after which they turned back.
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From what I heard that crew were highly peeved they had to turn back. I bet the ground crew were in for a proper rocket when she returned to station.

As a matter of interest from the first flight of the AVRO Lancaster to the first flight of the Vulcan was only 11 years.

I was in the Air Training Corps with a cadet who fished up captaining a Vulcan, I ran into him and one of his crew in a pub when I came back from the Far East, he said that the Vulcan flew like a fighter.
 
Fighting around nuclear reactors....yikes.


Russia is really losing the information/propaganda war. Younger Russians seem to be much lesser happy about the war.
 
Every morning when I read about the war and check the map of where the Russians are, it look more or less the same as it did after day two or three. Except for the Russian progress in the south.

I wonder if the Russians are viewing their BMP's, BTR's, MBT's, and other vehicles as death traps. They did that during the Afghan war and the Ukrainians have better anti-tank weapons than what the Afghans had.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Every morning when I read about the war and check the map of where the Russians are, it look more or less the same as it did after day two or three. Except for the Russian progress in the south.

I wonder if the Russians are viewing their BMP's, BTR's, MBT's, and other vehicles as death traps. They did that during the Afghan war and the Ukrainians have better anti-tank weapons than what the Afghans had.
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The big problem in trying to analyse things is the amount of deception/propaganda/misinformation floating around, when you have two armies with the almost identical equipment it becomes messy.
 
MontyB said:
The big problem in trying to analyse things is the amount of deception/propaganda/misinformation floating around, when you have two armies with the almost identical equipment it becomes messy.
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The Russians advance is still pretty slow and they should have solved the logistical problems by now. Maybe there are other reasons for why they are not moving very fast. The Ukrainian resistance, I read a report claiming the Russians are trying to disguise their fuel trucks as regular trucks. True or not, I don't know. But it might explain why the Russians can walk faster than what their vehicles move.

Yes, the information is contradicting; shall Poland and other NATO countries give Ukraine fighter jets or not. First the Ukraine should get them, a few hours later, No jets for the Ukrainians. Now I hear they are getting jets.
 
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