The West should exclude Russia from the international Banking system swift. But Germany, Hungary, and Italy don't want that.

I heard Russia has agreed upon a meeting in Minsk to negotiate the neutrality of Ukraine after the Ukrainian president offered to discuss a ceasefire. That can be interpreted as the Ukrainians are inflicting a higher amount of casualties than what the Russians have anticipated or the Ukrainian defense has reached its breaking point.

Originally Posted by MontyB

I can't answer why he has taken 20 years to attack Ukraine, I assume it is because for a sizable amount of that time he thought he could coerce the Ukraine into his sphere of influence without an invasion.

I don't share your views on a viable partisan movement forming as unlike WW2 this is an electronic world, drones, satellites and aircraft remove the ability to operate that type of movement on the terrain they have.

Ukraine will become a second Afghanistan ,and the partisan war in Afghanistan resulted in the retreat of the Soviets and of the US .
Russia can't afford a second defeat .
The difference with Afghanistan is that the Ukrainian partisans will chase and kill Russions over the whole world .
There is a strong Ukrainian diaspora in Canada which is growing up with the myths of the Holodomor . How long will it take them to kill the Russian ambassador,to attack the Russian embassy ?
What would be the reactions in Boston and New York if Britain invaded Ireland?
And, if Zelensky would accept to go to Minsk (which is a modern Canossa ) ,he will be considered as a traitor and suffer the fate of a traitor .
There are millions of Ukrainians waiting to see a Russian and to kill him .

Originally Posted by lljadw

Ukraine will become a second Afghanistan ,and the partisan war in Afghanistan resulted in the retreat of the Soviets and of the US .
Russia can't afford a second defeat .
The difference with Afghanistan is that the Ukrainian partisans will chase and kill Russions over the whole world .
There is a strong Ukrainian diaspora in Canada which is growing up with the myths of the Holodomor . How long will it take them to kill the Russian ambassador,to attack the Russian embassy ?
What would be the reactions in Boston and New York if Britain invaded Ireland?
And, if Zelensky would accept to go to Minsk (which is a modern Canossa ) ,he will be considered as a traitor and suffer the fate of a traitor .
There are millions of Ukrainians waiting to see a Russian and to kill him .

You may be right but I feel there is a lot of speculation in those statements.

Ukraine realistically cannot win this their only hope is to inflict enough damage/casualties on the Russians to weaken them militarily and weaken Putin enough for the Russians to ditch him.

However, if I was in the Russian military I would be exceedingly worried about having to go up against anyone with a modern well trained military as they are performing extremely badly given their overwhelming firepower and the fact that the west can clearly track Russian forces with relative ease.

I don't see why the Russian Army should have to go against a well trained army,as there is no possibility,no danger of a war between the West and Russia : the West is openly abandoning Ukraine ,which makes its sanctions against Russia very hypocritical .
The socialists and greens in Germany will not fight against Russia (besides Germany has no border with Russia ) and without Germany, NATO can do nothing .

Originally Posted by MontyB

I think it is fairly simple, why does any dictator do anything.
Dictators are all the same, Putin is no different to Hitler, Stalin, Mao or that sad little wannabe Trump, they all have thin skins and large egos.
I also think it would be a stretch to claim Kazakhstan is an Allie given that there are already thousands of Russian troops there propping up another unpopular dictator.

1 Putin is not a dictator (Kim from NK is a dictator ) but an authoritarian ruler.
2 Trump was not an authoritarian ruler .
3 That Hitler,etc had big egos is irrelevant, unless one can prove that their ego dictated their decisions . FDR, De Gaulle, Churchill also had big egos .
4 The position of Hitler, Stalin, Mao ,who were labelled by the Western liberal media as almighty dictators,was weaker in reality, much weaker .
Hitler : his generals refused openly to execute a lot of his orders
Stalin : he was forced to admit that a big part of the Soviet agriculture remained privatized and he was powerless against the secession of Tito .
Mao :after the failure of the Great Leap Forward,he lost a big part of his power and influence .
6 About Kazakhstan : is there any proof that the thousands ( how many ? ) of Russian troops there ,are there to prop up an unpopular dictator ?

Originally Posted by lljadw

I don't see why the Russian Army should have to go against a well trained army,as there is no possibility,no danger of a war between the West and Russia : the West is openly abandoning Ukraine ,which makes its sanctions against Russia very hypocritical .
The socialists and greens in Germany will not fight against Russia (besides Germany has no border with Russia ) and without Germany, NATO can do nothing .

They won't have a choice if Putin has a go at Poland or the Baltic states and there are already reports of another Russian troop build up around Brest in Belarus which is closer to the Polish border than the Ukrainian one, however that may just be the current war hysteria talking.

Originally Posted by lljadw

6 About Kazakhstan : is there any proof that the thousands ( how many ? ) of Russian troops there ,are there to prop up an unpopular dictator ?

Well he deployed the 98th Guards Airborne Division, 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade, depending on the state of readiness of those units it could be as little 3000 and as high as 12000, my guess would be somewhere in between.

I would also guess that the fact that it is called Bloody January or the January tragedy in Kazakhstan means that it didn't enhance his popularity.

Originally Posted by MontyB

They won't have a choice if Putin has a go at Poland or the Baltic states and there are already reports of another Russian troop build up around Brest in Belarus which is closer to the Polish border than the Ukrainian one, however that may just be the current war hysteria talking.

IF : even Stalin knew that he had to be very careful in Poland ,and his repression in Poland did not go as far as in other satellite countries .
And, there is also the fact ( wisely hidden by our media ) that Russia is only a shadow of the former USSR .The Russian active manpower is 1 million men , mostly professionals,because of the strong demographic crisis in Russia .1 million, including navy and air force .190000 are already committed in Ukraine . Where will Putin get additional boots on the ground ?
US active manpower is 1,38 million .All professionals .

Originally Posted by MontyB

Well he deployed the 98th Guards Airborne Division, 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade and the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade, depending on the state of readiness of those units it could be as little 3000 and as high as 12000, my guess would be somewhere in between.

I would also guess that the fact that it is called Bloody January or the January tragedy in Kazakhstan means that it didn't enhance his popularity.

12 000 men for a country of 3 million square km with a population of 19 million people !

Originally Posted by lljadw

12 000 men for a country of 3 million square km with a population of 19 million people !

I would be inclined to think that they were low readiness formations so closer to 3000 than 12000, but either way still thousands.