BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
The Russians are losing so much kit, it wouldn't surprise me if they did field those T34's, even if only as a kind of pill box.
Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?
The Russians are losing so much kit, it wouldn't surprise me if they did field those T34's, even if only as a kind of pill box.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
We have a T-34/85 at our tank museum, they might want it back
The reasons are obvious(as they are for the Germans )
1 Sweden had (has ) no operational tanks
2 Sweden wanted ( wants ) not to be involved in this war
3 Ukraine did not ( does not ) need these tanks :what Zelensky said is irrelevant .
The Russians failed with 3000 tanks, why should they now succeed with less tanks ?
Ukraine stopped the Russians with few tanks, why should Ukraine now need 300 tanks ( Zelensky asked for 300 tanks ) to stop the Russians ?
The more tanks you have the less the percent that is operational .
This happened in WW2 , it happens again :in June/July 1941 the Soviets advanced to the border with Germany and lost 12000 tanks ,most of them by non combat losses ;whole tank divisions collapsed BEFORE seeing one German .
Mutatis mutandis, the same happened with the 3000 Russian tanks in 2022 .
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
No, have you completely missed the Germans prevented every military equipment with the text "Made in Germany" to be delivered to Ukraine. That was the reason for why the Polish government said it would deliver the Leo2s to Ukraine with or without the Germans permission
And why did the Germans do this ?
Poland could no deliver tanks it leased from Germany to Ukraine, or it would be condemned by an international court . the Polish Leos are German propriety. And Germany knew this ,besides Poland said it would deliver only 14 Leos,something which would not help Ukraine,and as far as I know these 14 Leos are still in Poland .
The Polish threat is an empty threat .And the German threat to send 14 Leos is also meaningless .
Seeing is believing . And there is no reason to believe what German and Polish politicians are saying .
If Poland was serious in its threat, it would have sent not 15 but 100 Leos ,not somewhere this year, but in 2022.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Again you are hung up on numbers, at this stage Ukraine does not operate this equipment as such maintenance systems and crews will have to be set up, logistics lines will need to be built and staffed, tank crews will need to be trained, there is absolutely no point in shipping 1000 L2's if they don't know how to use, maintain and can't supply them.
My guess is that currently the first group of Ukrainian tankers, mechanics and logisticians are in Poland, Germany and UK learning to use what they have been given, they will head back once they pass and become the trainers for the next generation of Ukrainian armoured and support crews who will only know what a Russian tank looks like through a western gun sight.
Essentially this is training the trainers.
Think of it as a Lego kit, you don't buy the entire range initially, you buy a few items to get you started and then keep adding to it until it becomes an obsession.
And all this will take time, a lot of time,and meanwhile the Russians will start their Spring offensive .
Poland, Germany, etc have had a full year of time to send tanks to Ukraine and they did nothing .
One of the reasons is that sending tanks in 2022 would not help Ukraine ( it is very doubtful that sending tanks in 2023 would help Ukraine .
Besides, now that the West has promised tanks (they did not say when they would arrive :it will take a year for the Abrams and 8 months for the Leos ),Zelensky is now demanding fighters and if the answer is positive ,he will ask the intervention of NATO aircraft against targets in Russia, etc ,:he will never be satisfied .
If he wins,he will minimize the role of the West;if he loses he will blame the West .
And, even if the Ukrainian tankers and mechanics are trained,why would this help Ukraine ? Opposite what the media are telling us (by ignorance and by fear to lose the bribe money of General Dynamics ) the war in Ukraine is not a war of tanks fighting against tanks,but of infantry fighting against infantry supported by tanks and artillery .
And Leos are as vulnerable as were WW2 tanks : see what happened to them in Syria when Turkey invaded this country .ISIS which had no tanks destroyed/damaged 10 Leo2s of the Turkish army .
Why would the NATO Leo2s do better faced by the Russian infantry and artillery ?
Poland, Germany, etc have had a full year of time to send tanks to Ukraine and they did nothing .
One of the reasons is that sending tanks in 2022 would not help Ukraine ( it is very doubtful that sending tanks in 2023 would help Ukraine .
Besides, now that the West has promised tanks (they did not say when they would arrive :it will take a year for the Abrams and 8 months for the Leos ),Zelensky is now demanding fighters and if the answer is positive ,he will ask the intervention of NATO aircraft against targets in Russia, etc ,:he will never be satisfied .
If he wins,he will minimize the role of the West;if he loses he will blame the West .
And, even if the Ukrainian tankers and mechanics are trained,why would this help Ukraine ? Opposite what the media are telling us (by ignorance and by fear to lose the bribe money of General Dynamics ) the war in Ukraine is not a war of tanks fighting against tanks,but of infantry fighting against infantry supported by tanks and artillery .
And Leos are as vulnerable as were WW2 tanks : see what happened to them in Syria when Turkey invaded this country .ISIS which had no tanks destroyed/damaged 10 Leo2s of the Turkish army .
Why would the NATO Leo2s do better faced by the Russian infantry and artillery ?
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
My impression is that it has taken time to realise that Ukraine can stop the Russians, to date I can not think of anyone I have spoken to both civilian or military who expected this war to last more than a couple of weeks to a month at the outside and at a guess I think the world thought the same as a result we didn't need to equip the Ukrainians.
At about three months we noticed not only weren't the Russians advancing they were starting to go backwards and at that point it dawned on much of the west that the Russian military is largely incompetent and Ukraine might be able to hold their own and as such we can commit resources with more confidence that those resources are not being wasted on a lost cause.
At about six months the west began to convert the Ukrainian military from a second rate Soviet army to a well equipped western force and this is where we are today, after tanks the next step will be aircraft?
I am not sure what the Russian spring offensive will look like but given the stacks of equipment they have lost I am imagining a re-enactment of the Somme with someone blowing a whistle and a bunch of poor bastards walking into machine gun fire.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
You don't know how the international arm trade works. Germany prevented other countries to deliver German made weapon systems to Ukraine, This is not unique or strange in any way. All countries have similar restrictions to prevent the buyer of defense system to sell them to who ever wants to buy them.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
How do you know it will take time to train them to use western MBTs?
Do you say that it will not take time to train Ukrainians to use western tanks ?
Of course it will take time, more time than it takes western soldiers to use western tanks .
Training for use of Abrams tanks is 22 weeks for American soldiers, thus more than 22 weeks for Ukrainians .
A good source is :technology .org 2022/12/26 :How long would it take to train Ukrainian soldiers to use abrams tanks ?
And : the training of the tank commander will of course last longer ,as he must be trained to cooperate with other tanks and with infantry and artillery .
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
And how long will it take for other tankers to use Abram, Leopard, Challenger tanks? They already know how to operate with mechanized infantry and artillery.
The maintenance crews will take longer to train
Who are these ''other tankers "?
If they are Ukrainians they were trained to use Soviet made tanks and to use Soviet tactics,while Western tanks are used for and need Western tactics .
Have the Ukrainians any mechanized infantry ? And if so :Western or Russian ?
And, is the Ukrainian army using Soviet or Western tactics ? Most of its army is Soviet made .
And the length of the front : in August 2022 ,Zelensky was talking about a front of 2500 km . In December the Dupuy Institute said : some 1000 km .
Our media remain silent about this, but these facts have a very big importance ,more than the number and quality of Western tanks .
And, let's not forget the Russian strategy which has a big impact on the Ukrainian strategy .
BritinBritain
Per Ardua Ad Astra
Down the road here is a territorial army unit, with a ''Honey Tank'' gate guardian, I wonder if Putin would buy it?;-)
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Chances are they would steal it as a first choice.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
The Ukrainians are using western doctrine and have done so since 2014 when they changed the doctrine, the command structure, but they know the Russian doctrine when they were trained to use the same doctrine. Yes, Ukraine has mechanized infantry, they are driving around in BMPs and BMDs. They also have motorized infantry and they are using BTRs and BRDMs. They have also received APC from the west.
The Ukrainians are pretty well trained and have adjusted to western equipment fast.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
We might need to check the locks at our tank museum
CNBC from 27 January :the 31 M1A1 Abrams sent by the US to Ukraine are not expected to arrive in Ukraine for several months .
Several is more than 2 ,and meanwhile Ukraine can not use them .
Last year US and UK refused to give tanks to Ukraine,and notwithstanding this, Ukraine first stopped the Russians and than did repel them .
Thus :why should Ukraine now need tanks ?
That Ukrainian tank units ( only a few ) knew how to operate with mechanized infantry and artillery, using their Soviet tanks, does not mean that they could do the same in the Summer or Fall using Western tanks .
Western tanks had /have as aim to fight a defensive war ,later an offensive war against a Soviet attack on West Germany.
West Germany is not Ukraine .The Ukrainian Army is not the Bundeswehr .
There is no proof that the Leopards and Abrams will do better in Ukraine than the Russian tanks .
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
If you were racing cars and the vehicle you had was adequate against your competition but not decisive and relied on your competition for parts but there was another vehicle out there that you believed was better than what you had and didn't rely on the competitions parts wouldn't you want that vehicle?
I doubt they would do worse than Russian tanks and once again the supply of parts and ammunition from USA and Europe is far more reliable than it is from Moscow.
Even if Russian gear was better in some areas the chances of Ukraine being able to buy it from Russia while being at war with them is unlikely so continually asking why Ukraine needs western equipment is the easiest question to answer, it can't buy Russian gear.
By the end of this war the whole Ukrainian military will be equipped with western gear for just that reason.
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Yes, the Ukrainian army is probably much better than the German army. Western made tanks have better protection than their Russian counterparts. Russian/Soviet tanks have a design flaw which make them vulnerable. Western tanks have most likely much better sensors than the Russian tanks. These sensors can even detect the body heat from a huge distance. MBTs are a system which operate with other military units, infantry, artillery, combat engineers, air defense, air support, This is how an army operate. But you have never been in the army so you don't know that.
This has more to do with your attitude toward Slavic when you actually think they are lesser than yourself.