Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

lljadw said:
By selling weapons to Turkey that is selling oil for Putin .
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Yes, Turkey is selling oil under the price cap and the huge majority of all tankers are insured in Europe or in the US/Canada so it is difficult to sell the oil to a higher price.

Turkey is also used as the negotiator between Ukraine and Russia. It helped with getting the grain shipments out of Ukraine.

Finland and Sweden have lifted the arms embargo as a part of the agreement in Madrid.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
So, Leo2s, Abrams, Challengers, and IFVs/APCs to Ukraine. Will the French provide with their Leclerc MBTs?
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Nobody knows when the 14 Leos from Germany will be ready .There is also a lot of opposition to the transfer of Leos from Germany to Ukraine : 46 % of the Germans said yes, 43 % said no .
Poland will send 14 Leos
Portugal 4 (when is unknown )
UK :14 Challengers (when is unknown )
Finland : does not say when/if it will send some of its own tanks
Netherlands : will buy 18 Leos that it is now leasing from Germany and will send them to Ukraine (when is unknown )
Denmark and Norway said that they will send tanks ,but when and how many is unknown.
Spain promises to give an unknown number of tanks and will take care of maintenance and training of Ukrainians .
US said that hey will send 31 Abrams ,but this will take at least one year :they must first be produced /modernized .
Slovakia will give 30 T72 tanks at the condition that it will receive in exchange Western tanks ,but when these T 72 will arrive in Ukraine is a well guarded secret as they need first a total overhaul by the Excalibur plant from Czechia (CGS ) and these admit that they can modernize only 5 tanks a month .
Source for the Abrams : Kake abc com from 26 January :''Ukrainian new tanks won't be the instant game-changer some expect.''
Conclusion : if there is a Spring Russian offensive, Ukraine, which said that it needed 300 tanks, will be very lucky, if there are 30 ''western '' operational tanks available .
It is also likely that the French tanks will be the last to arrive in Ukraine .
And, given the Russian failure although it had a lot of tanks,it remains doubtful that more tanks will help Ukraine ,that did not bad last year without all these tanks .
 
lljadw said:
I don't think that questions about the number and date of operational tanks arriving in Ukraine are trivial issues .
The Belgian army has no longer any tanks,some are owned by private companies who ask too much money to sell them ,thus the Belgian government will buy tanks owned by other countries and ship them to Belgium to be repaired ,although these tanks never saw any fighting . No one knows how long this will take .
That at some point (2023,2024,or later )they will end up in Ukraine is not helping Ukraine which needs to know exactly when , not at some point .
You imagine the British reactions in WW2 ,if US told them that at some point,US food ,US weapons would arrive in Britain ?
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Not entirely accurate that the Belgian government has to buy them as with the Moroccan T-72s they were purchased by US and Dutch concerns, as I understand it some Belgian SP Artillery was sent the same way, NZs Javelins were sent on the proviso that they were replaced.

Can you imagine the German reaction if the US said there are food and weapons arriving at Liverpool's docks on Tuesday 24 March 1942 at 3pm?
My guess is that half the U-boat fleet would have been waiting, the Russians wouldn't be a lot different, so as said, perhaps there are things we don't need to know.

I would be inclined to bet many things are announced after they are done.
 
Sweden will send some of their 121s (that's the Leo2 A4) But first the Ukrainians get the CV90 and the Archer.

UKraine will get about 100 western made MBTs and with all the APCs and IFVs it will get about brigade battlegroup. I doubt they will use all of the MBTs in one unit, the logistical chain will be problematic. Speaking about that, will the Ukrainians get the recovering vehicles too? Tank units have maintenance/repair vehicles with them so I assume the Ukrainians will get those too.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Sweden will send some of their 121s (that's the Leo2 A4) But first the Ukrainians get the CV90 and the Archer.

UKraine will get about 100 western made MBTs and with all the APCs and IFVs it will get about brigade battlegroup. I doubt they will use all of the MBTs in one unit, the logistical chain will be problematic. Speaking about that, will the Ukrainians get the recovering vehicles too? Tank units have maintenance/repair vehicles with them so I assume the Ukrainians will get those too.
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I like many others believe that the 100 MBTs are a training and logistics run, once Ukraine is up to speed with running and maintaining them I suspect the floodgates will open to hundreds of them.
Why not the 122?
 
The Abrams is too heavy (73 ton ) source :popular Mechanics .Ukrainian bridges can not sustain them .
It will take months before they will arrive in Ukraine ( source : Time ),major issue is engine problems .
What is the benefit for Ukraine if these 31 Abrams arrive there at the end of 2023 ?
Of course, 31 more Abrams is a big gain for General Dynamics and its puppets on Capitol Hill,but that is not the business of Ukraine .
A promise of tanks, LL food ,etc arriving at an unknown date is not a benefit but only a promise .
If Ukraine does not know when it will get these Abrams, what is the benefit of it ?
 
The Ukrainian military must recover damaged British tanks to prevent Russian intelligence from stealing key UK tech, military experts have warned. Britain's decision to become the first NATO ally to supply Ukraine with modern Western battle tanks helped pave the way for Germany's crucial announcement that it is finally to follow suit with its Leopard 2s.

Rishi Sunak told President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this month that the UK is to send 14 Challenger 2s as part of its latest support package for the Ukrainian military.

It also includes around two dozen AS90 self-propelled guns, hundreds more armoured vehicles and precision-guided missiles, and 100,000 artillery rounds on top of the 100,000 already sent.

It keeps the UK at the forefront of Kyiv's military backers with £2.3 billion of support provided during the course of 2022, with ministers promising a similar amount this year.

But military experts are now worrying advanced technology could be stolen if damaged British tanks are not recovered by Ukrainians.

In the history of Challenger 2s only one has been destroyed in battle and that was by friendly fire in Iraq.

“The Russians will be desperate to try and kill and capture a Challenger 2, partly for their propaganda but also to get their hands on its secrets.”

A defence source added: “If a tank is destroyed or disabled the first option is always to try and self-recover. You tow it with another tank or use a specialist armoured repair and recovery vehicle — which looks like a tank with a crane.

“But the worst case scenario is that a tank is destroyed when the lines are collapsing and friendly forces are in retreat.

“Step one is the training and working with mission planners to try and ensure the Challengers are not used in scenarios where they think that collapse a realistic possibility.

“Step two is making sure, at the tactical level, the Ukrainians are trained to recover a tank under fire. They certainly don’t lack the courage.”
 
MontyB said:
I like many others believe that the 100 MBTs are a training and logistics run, once Ukraine is up to speed with running and maintaining them I suspect the floodgates will open to hundreds of them.
Why not the 122?
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I might be wrong, but I think we have too few so we can't give any to Ukraine, but I think we have Leo2 A4 (121) in storage
 
lljadw said:
The Abrams is too heavy (73 ton ) source :popular Mechanics .Ukrainian bridges can not sustain them .
It will take months before they will arrive in Ukraine ( source : Time ),major issue is engine problems .
What is the benefit for Ukraine if these 31 Abrams arrive there at the end of 2023 ?
Of course, 31 more Abrams is a big gain for General Dynamics and its puppets on Capitol Hill,but that is not the business of Ukraine .
A promise of tanks, LL food ,etc arriving at an unknown date is not a benefit but only a promise .
If Ukraine does not know when it will get these Abrams, what is the benefit of it ?
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The T-90m is 53 ton, the Russians clearly didn't see a need to contact the Ukrainian postal service to get around the 44 ton transport limit.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I might be wrong, but I think we have too few so we can't give any to Ukraine, but I think we have Leo2 A4 (121) in storage
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And, how long will it take to make the Leo2 A4 combat ready ? Does Sweden have the means to make these tanks ( 40 years old ) operational ?Or must they be transported first to Czechia to have a total overhaul at the Excalibur Plants ?
Tanks in Storage are not tanks in Ukraine .
Other point : why took it Sweden almost a year to decide to send tanks to Ukraine ?
 
MontyB said:
The T-90m is 53 ton, the Russians clearly didn't see a need to contact the Ukrainian postal service to get around the 44 ton transport limit.
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Do the Russians use the Ukrainian bridges ? The Western tanks will have to do much more miles and thus use more bridges than the Russian tanks .
And, if these bridges can sustain 53 tons (9 tons above the maximum ) that does not mean that they can sustain 73 tons ( 29 tons above the maximum ).
 
BritinBritain said:
I wondered when Russia would begin fielding its T34 tanks in the war against Ukraine.Russia's ministry of defense has acquired thirty old T-34 tanks sparking speculation the Soviet medium tank that was introduced in 1940 could soon be reintroduced to the battlefields of Ukraine. Putin's military has been faced with the challenge of fielding tanks able to compete with the modern armour soon to be supplied to Ukraine such as the US Abrams and the British Challenger 2.

A Russian state broadcaster reported: "Until recently all of this unique equipment was used to arm the National Democratic Republic of Laos.

"All of these tanks were passed on to the Ministry of Defence of Russia as part of the science and technology cooperation."

The tanks were reportedly gifted to Laos in the 1980s by Vietnam.

The reporter continued: "At least half these tanks were made in 1944 - during WWII."
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interesting. There has been some film of Ukrainian T-34s moving under their own power.
 
George said:
So far their tractors seem to be doing the job...
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They may need bigger tractors though.

lljadw said:
Do the Russians use the Ukrainian bridges ? The Western tanks will have to do much more miles and thus use more bridges than the Russian tanks .
And, if these bridges can sustain 53 tons (9 tons above the maximum ) that does not mean that they can sustain 73 tons ( 29 tons above the maximum ).
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I don't think they have bought their own ones with them and the only time we saw one it ended with a sunken BTG in the Siverskyi Donets river.
 
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MontyB said:
True but as I understand it Sweden can make the 122 where as the 121 construction has ceased.
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I also think the upgraded versions of Leo2s, Abrams, Challenger, etc. It is cheaper to keep the chassis and upgrade the turrets, the sensors, communication equipment, etc are in the turrets
 
lljadw said:
And, how long will it take to make the Leo2 A4 combat ready ? Does Sweden have the means to make these tanks ( 40 years old ) operational ?Or must they be transported first to Czechia to have a total overhaul at the Excalibur Plants ?
Tanks in Storage are not tanks in Ukraine .
Other point : why took it Sweden almost a year to decide to send tanks to Ukraine ?
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Ask the Germans
 
MontyB said:
Any opinions on this?

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/...nvolvement-in-Quran-burning-protest-in-Sweden
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Yes, we have suspected a Russian connection, not so much between Paludan and Russia. Paludan was invited by a Chang Frick who also paid the demonstration fee. He has ties with Russia and he has called Putin his real boss. Even if Russia didn't do anything directly. Chang Frick doesn't want Sweden to be a NATO country.

It is interesting to see how the right-wing supporters and the left-wing supporters want the same thing.
 
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