Swedens attempt to join NATO

I3BrigPvSk said:
Finland and Sweden have done what the three countries agreed on in Madrid. Turkiye has added more conditions for approval of Finland and Sweden. The Turkish economy is in the drain, Erdogan wants to be reelected and what is better than portraying himself as a strong leader. His objections have been directed to the US and I bet he will say yes if he gets the F-16 upgrades and the new F-16. The US has another possibility to pressure Erdogan and that is to sell more advanced weapons to Greece.
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The Greeks are already part of the F-35 program, I think they purchased 20-25 of them about 6 months ago.

I think the significant part of this though is the comment that "Once the NATO accession protocols are ratified by Türkiye, Congress can consider the sale of F-16 fighter jets. A failure to do so, however, would call into question this pending sale,"

This is not a "give it some thought" comment, it is a "sign it or else" comment, Erdogan has no wiggle room left.
 
MontyB said:
The Greeks are already part of the F-35 program, I think they purchased 20-25 of them about 6 months ago.

I think the significant part of this though is the comment that "Once the NATO accession protocols are ratified by Türkiye, Congress can consider the sale of F-16 fighter jets. A failure to do so, however, would call into question this pending sale,"

This is not a "give it some thought" comment, it is a "sign it or else" comment, Erdogan has no wiggle room left.
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NATO can't do without Turkey . Turkey is less dependent on NATO than NATO on Turkey .
If US will not sell F-16 fighters to Turkey, Turkey will buy fighters from Russia .
 
lljadw said:
NATO can't do without Turkey . Turkey is less dependent on NATO than NATO on Turkey .
If US will not sell F-16 fighters to Turkey, Turkey will buy fighters from Russia .
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Maybe Turkiye should join the CSTO, I am sure Erdogan's prestige will go through the roof at home playing second fiddle to Putin and Lukashenko.
 
Turkiye has been hit by a quake. It is prone to quakes from the two strike slip fault lines in Turkiye. Similar type of fault lines as the San Andrea fault line. This quake reach the maximum energy release a strike slip fault line generates.
 
MontyB said:
Maybe Turkiye should join the CSTO, I am sure Erdogan's prestige will go through the roof at home playing second fiddle to Putin and Lukashenko.
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Turkey is interested in only two things
1 Preventing the creation of a Kurdish state
2 Increasing its power in the ME and recreating de facto the Ottoman Empire .
No one in Turkey is interested in the fate of Ukraine .
NATO is for Turkey good only if it helps Turkey in these 2 points .
Turkey does not care about the official principles of NATO and the Western world : it is a Muslim country where Western principles have no place .
 
lljadw said:
Turkey is interested in only two things
1 Preventing the creation of a Kurdish state
2 Increasing its power in the ME and recreating de facto the Ottoman Empire .
No one in Turkey is interested in the fate of Ukraine .
NATO is for Turkey good only if it helps Turkey in these 2 points .
Turkey does not care about the official principles of NATO and the Western world : it is a Muslim country where Western principles have no place .
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They are Erdogan's views not necessarily Turkiye's.
I have spent a lot of time in Turkiye and the people are far less interested in those things than you think.
 
MontyB said:
They are Erdogan's views not necessarily Turkiye's.
I have spent a lot of time in Turkiye and the people are far less interested in those things than you think.
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But the foreign policy of Turkey is not decided by the people .
There is a very strong Deep State in Turkey (military, security services,bureaucracy ) with as ideology :
anti-Islamism
anti-Socialism
anti-liberalism
anti-Democracy
and especially : anti-Kurdish .
The Deep State existed already in the Ottoman Empire and works together with organized crime and the drug mafia and the Grey Wolves .
A Turkish PM gave the order to kill rich people who were suspected to lend money to the PKK .
In 1996 the Susurluk Scandal erupted which the leading politicians tried to hide :
a general of the police died when his aircraft was sabotaged and the president of Turkey died mysteriously from a heart attack . They wanted a peaceful solution with the Kurds .
And , do not underestimate the strength of nationalism in Turkey : a few years ago, during the presidential elections campaign, Erdogan visited Europe and was welcomed by thousands of enthusiastic Turks living in Germany ,having also the German nationality ,but still considered themselves as Turks .
The Turkish secret police is operating in Europe chasing and killing political opponents .And no one objects .
Turkey occupies a part of Syria (the West agrees ) and is not willing to leave . And no one objects .
Erdogan uses the secret police , but it is doubtful that he controls it .
 
The Finns are in now. I begin to think Sweden should withdraw its application and reduce the cooperation with NATO to a minimum. If NATO wants to have Sweden as a member, they need to fix its "open door policy" If NATO can't solve this can NATO countries really trust the Article 5?

If the Russians get rid of Putin and get a new government that tries to repair its relation with EU, maybe Sweden should open up with a defense cooperation with Russia and see what NATO thinks about that
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Finns are in now. I begin to think Sweden should withdraw its application and reduce the cooperation with NATO to a minimum. If NATO wants to have Sweden as a member, they need to fix its "open door policy" If NATO can't solve this can NATO countries really trust the Article 5?

If the Russians get rid of Putin and get a new government that tries to repair its relation with EU, maybe Sweden should open up with a defense cooperation with Russia and see what NATO thinks about that
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I don't disagree with NATO being in need of an overhaul and at this point I think both Turkey and the Hungarian commitment to the organisation needs to be examined but I also think that Turkish reticence will diminish after their elections.
As to joining the Russians I think you would be better off with a Baltic Sea alliance than a Russian one.
 
MontyB said:
I don't disagree with NATO being in need of an overhaul and at this point I think both Turkey and the Hungarian commitment to the organisation needs to be examined but I also think that Turkish reticence will diminish after their elections.
As to joining the Russians I think you would be better off with a Baltic Sea alliance than a Russian one.
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Maybe a valid question is; what is NATO and what does it stand for? If NATO gets these issues with the "open door policy" how would it react to a major crisis?

I think Sweden should withdraw the application and let NATO to know why. Turkey is a important member of NATO and cannot be expelled from it. If NATO wants Sweden, it should fix the problems with Turkey and Hungary, Sweden shouldn't try to negotiate with any of them. The Hungarian air force is leasing Gripen, maybe cancel the leasing agreement and block the EU money to Hungary.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Maybe a valid question is; what is NATO and what does it stand for? If NATO gets these issues with the "open door policy" how would it react to a major crisis?

I think Sweden should withdraw the application and let NATO to know why. Turkey is a important member of NATO and cannot be expelled from it. If NATO wants Sweden, it should fix the problems with Turkey and Hungary, Sweden shouldn't try to negotiate with any of them. The Hungarian air force is leasing Gripen, maybe cancel the leasing agreement and block the EU money to Hungary.
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I think once an organisation reaches a certain size the all or nothing admission system breaks down but if you are expecting countries to defend other nations then they should have a say in who is let into that alliance.
Regarding Turkey and Hungary I really do have doubts that either would commit troops to defending the smaller European countries, do you think either would go to war with Russia over Estonia or Latvia and as such I am not sure it is the alliance for them, let's face it they can't even trust Turkey with the F-35 and are struggling to agree to supplying aging F-16s.
 
MontyB said:
I think once an organisation reaches a certain size the all or nothing admission system breaks down but if you are expecting countries to defend other nations then they should have a say in who is let into that alliance.
Regarding Turkey and Hungary I really do have doubts that either would commit troops to defending the smaller European countries, do you think either would go to war with Russia over Estonia or Latvia and as such I am not sure it is the alliance for them, let's face it they can't even trust Turkey with the F-35 and are struggling to agree to supplying aging F-16s.
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That' is a valid point. Countries must trust each other if they join a defense alliance. Turkey's objections have some validity, Sweden has been a safe haven for terrorists. The legislation against participation and financing terror groups will be implemented the June 1, it should have been implemented 50 years ago.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Maybe a valid question is; what is NATO and what does it stand for? If NATO gets these issues with the "open door policy" how would it react to a major crisis?

I think Sweden should withdraw the application and let NATO to know why. Turkey is a important member of NATO and cannot be expelled from it. If NATO wants Sweden, it should fix the problems with Turkey and Hungary, Sweden shouldn't try to negotiate with any of them. The Hungarian air force is leasing Gripen, maybe cancel the leasing agreement and block the EU money to Hungary.
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1 NATO does not want Sweden as member, but Sweden wants to join NATO thus it is on Sweden to fix the problems with Hungary and Turkey .
2 NATO and the EU are two different organizations .EU has no business with the opposition of Hungary to let Sweden become a member of NATO and NATO has no business with the amount of EU money for Hungary .
3 The big opponent for Sweden is Turkey and no one in NATO is that stupid to chose Sweden in the place of Turkey : NATO can do without Sweden, but not without Turkey .
4 If Sweden cancels the leasing of Gripen ,the danger is that Hungary will buy Russian weapons as is doing Turkey .Turkey demands 40 F16 and if it does not get them,it threatens to buy Russian aircraft .
An additional danger is that Sweden would lose a lot of money .
 
Of course where Sweden is shielded from the Russians by Finland & Norway any attempt to attack them would involve NATO, unless it was just a naval or airborne operation. Wouldn't think that would work well. It's good that Sweden is stepping up instead of standing back. I'd think a lot of Russian weapon sales contracts are being cancelled or reconsidered......
 
George said:
Of course where Sweden is shielded from the Russians by Finland & Norway any attempt to attack them would involve NATO, unless it was just a naval or airborne operation. Wouldn't think that would work well. It's good that Sweden is stepping up instead of standing back. I'd think a lot of Russian weapon sales contracts are being cancelled or reconsidered......
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I agree, I also think that the evidence of everyone except Hungary and Turkey (who are playing political games) accepting Sweden into NATO disproves the argument that NATO doesn't "Want" Sweden.

At this stage I would also think that anyone who can afford anything but cheap crap would be avoiding Russian hardware and profit announcements and expected sales info shows an increase in demand for western systems.
 
Well it looks like Turkey and Sweden have kissed and made up...

Turkey clears way for Swedish NATO membership, in abrupt about face
While far from the official last step for Sweden’s NATO membership, the transmission of Sweden’s Accession Protocol to the Turkish Grand National Assembly all but removes any doubt that the northern European nation will become the alliance’s 32nd member.

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/07...wedish-nato-membership-in-abrupt-turn-around/

It sounds as though the deal involves Turkey being admitted to the EU in return for removing its objections.
 
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