Return of the Soviet Union?

Seems that my reply in another thread was in the wrong place. This is the discussion that it might do the most good to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 5.56X45mm
The Soviets were never really gone. The threat of communism was never really gone. Russia learned that she was just too big for her breeches . But now that she's learned and healed herself, she wants back in the game.

We have yet to see a Russia that has "healed herself". She's still a pretty big mess. Russia's running with the same strategy that has revived far too many nations in the past -- militarism.

But lets remember what's missing. Reaquiring control of all former Soviet States will be difficult. Without them, Russia is missing a huge portion of it's overall former population:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._by_population
9 Russia142,499,000
27 Ukraine46,205,000
43 Uzbekistan27,372,000
62 Kazakhstan15,422,000
84 Belarus9,689,000
92 Azerbaijan8,467,000
99 Tajikistan6,736,000
110 Kyrgyzstan5,317,000
112 Turkmenistan4,965,000
118 Georgia4,395,000[10]
127 Moldova3,794,000[11
130 Lithuania3,390,000
135 Armenia3,002,000
140 Latvia2,277,000
148 Estonia1,342,409
Total Population in former USSR that are now independent nations: 98,899,909.

These nations also account for a substantial portion of the former USSR's oil production as other natural resources.

The Ukraine in particular, has been less than pleased with some recent meddling by Russia in their politics. No doubt, this has made them very wary of Russia.

Reaquiring Eastern Europe will likely prove impossible.

I doubt if even Putin strongly believes in Communism anymore. So in order to have a unifying cause or ideology, Russia will have to come up with something else.

One of the biggest reason for the collapse of the Communist Block was the free flow of information internationally -- something that will take some time and much effort to completely stop. Let's face it, there's just way too many means through which to communicate.

A very large number of the Russian and former Soviet citizens are none too enthusiastic about returning to the same sort of totalitarianistic state that existed throughout the Cold War.
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http://www.military-quotes.com/forum/russia-resumes-nuke-bomber-sorties-page2-t42046.html <-- From this thread.

Personally, I'm one for never underestimating a potential enemy. Russia is a potential enemy that the USA especially will be likely to underestimate unless and until it blows up in their face.

That said, I'm putting this in here because I want to put things into perspective.
1.) Russia alone has less than 1/2 of the population of the United States. During her time as the USSR, she had a larger population than the USA.
2.) That lack of population means they are not in a position to to re-establish themselves as the SAME threat that the USSR was.
3.) Russia still lacks any specific ideological cause to unite behind.

These are obstacles that they certainly might overcome, but we should realize that Russia's got an uphill battle to face in order to do so.
 
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godofthunder9010 said:
Personally, I'm one for never underestimating a potential enemy. Russia is a potential enemy that the USA especially will be likely to underestimate unless and until it blows up in their face.
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My thoughts exactly. And Iran, and Iraq, and North Korea, and Vietnam, and China, and sometimes France (well maybe...:)) So I am keeping my eyes peeled.

:read: Guess I have to sign too now dont I?
 
Half of the former Soviet republics are now US allies and won't abandon the US for even one second because they (US and ex-Soviet republics) mutually need each other.
 
phoenix80 said:
Half of the former Soviet republics are now US allies and won't abandon the US for even one second because they (US and ex-Soviet republics) mutually need each other.
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Not exactly military allies. Some like the Baltic States are eager to become such of course. Would the USA aid them if they asked for help? It's certainly possible, but difficult to say for certain.

But one thing I'm seeing that seems obvious to me: If the former Soviet Republic nations are smart, they'll look out for each other. If they do that, then Russia has a 150 million population vs 100 million population war on their hands if they want to reconquer them. Both sides would be ready to rev up a potent military on short notice too. Sure Russia has the odds stacked slightly in their favor in that scenario, but it would seem to be enough of a deterent to Russian aggression to keep them from picking a fight. And I don't expect that NATO would sit by and do nothing if such a war errupted.
 
the_13th_redneck said:
Sukio, big countries that fall have a habit of not wanting to stay down.
You think the Chinese are a rising power? They're a power coming back. The Russians are the same too. The desire to be a world super power is there.
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Super power, sometimes, it sucks having the monopoly on it. You can see what I mean, when you look at all the U.S. military personnel scattered around the world for various reasons.
 
Sukio said:
Super power, sometimes, it sucks having the monopoly on it. You can see what I mean, when you look at all the U.S. military personnel scattered around the world for various reasons.
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You hardly have to worry about the USA maintaining a "monopoly" on the role of Superpower.

The position of the United States as the most powerful nation on Earth by the substantial margin that it now is ... simply is not sustainable if China and/or India play their cards right in their development. Americans should have no illusions about his matter.

China has more than four times the population of the United States. India is rapidly approaching having four times our population. It should be no surprise to anyone that, unless India and China completely screw up in their development, they will find themselves in competition with each other for the #1 and #2 "most powerful nation" spots in this world.

The primary reason that the USSR and USA grew into "Superpowers" was simply because they each had such an enormous store of resources and population. All that was necessary was for their industrial and military development to occur.

So where does Russia fit into all of this? They have the military technological capabilities of a Superpower, but they do not have the population and nor a strong enough industry to outproduce the USA, China or India. The best that can be hoped for, barring some unforeseen cataclysm, is for Russia to move into a "4th Best" role for awhile. Considering they are the 9th largest population in the world (instead of their former position of 3rd), they will have a difficult time sustaining even 4th place. But we'll see, of course.

The one way for Russia to come out on top? For the USA, China and India to dump their militaries in favor of other priorities. Or for mass disaster to strike all three.

Russia appears to be desperately trying to regain something that is probably lost forever ... and we have to be complete idiots to not watch them VERY closely in their attempt.
 
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