Iran/USA Conflict
I think the conflicts about U.S.A.'s claim that Iran supports terrorist organisations and is planning to build a nuclear bomb.
I don't think even if Iran defies USA, USA can really do anything about it other than impose sanctions.Iran shouldn't be as easy as Iraq to overpower.But all facts certainly show that this situation is becoming worser by the day.
I don't think even if Iran defies USA, USA can really do anything about it other than impose sanctions.Iran shouldn't be as easy as Iraq to overpower.But all facts certainly show that this situation is becoming worser by the day.
There is not "vs." in the foreign relations between Iran and the United States. Both of these countries have very different views in social morality. As a result, the two countries have been hostile to each other since the Hostage Crisis and the hostility will persist if there is no consesus or agreement from both countries.
In my opinion, United States and Iran are not in the direction to confront each other militarily with the Iraqi situation near by.
In my opinion, United States and Iran are not in the direction to confront each other militarily with the Iraqi situation near by.
Iran knows that if the Iraq situation is resolved they are going to be next on the list of countries to jack up. So they're doing everything they can to make it difficult for the US to install any form of a government. In reality though, Afghanistan should be higher on the list. The whole Golden Crecent issue and capturing of Bin Laden should be priority.
Here is my general analysis about the conflict:
1. What is the conflict about?
I would say primarily it’s about oil. If oil and gas were not important then there would be no such issues in the Middle East. I think most of the secondary issues, like 1953 coup, 1979 revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Israel, stem from the oil issue.
2. What leverage does each side hold?
US has strongest military, both conventional and unconventional. US has Iran surrounded with military bases. US economy and technology, and US sanctions against Iran has been significant. US has influence on other nations and the UN. US has powerful covert capabilities.
Iran has significant unconventional military, like missiles, chemical and biological weapons, and possibly some nuclear weapons, and ICBM technology is not far off. Iran has indigenous military and significant self sufficiency. Iran has large area and difficult terrain. Iran is capable of stopping oil flow from Persian Gulf with anti-ship missiles and mines. Iran is capable of harming oil production in the region. Iran has Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran will be major energy supplier to China and possibly India and Pakistan. Iran has influence in Iraq.
3. Where is the conflict heading?
My guess is the conflict will continue because these countries have conflicting interests. However, it is unlikely it will escalate into all out war, like in Iraq, unless China and maybe Russia consent, which is very unlikely. I think the conflict will be mainly covert and political.
1. What is the conflict about?
I would say primarily it’s about oil. If oil and gas were not important then there would be no such issues in the Middle East. I think most of the secondary issues, like 1953 coup, 1979 revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Israel, stem from the oil issue.
2. What leverage does each side hold?
US has strongest military, both conventional and unconventional. US has Iran surrounded with military bases. US economy and technology, and US sanctions against Iran has been significant. US has influence on other nations and the UN. US has powerful covert capabilities.
Iran has significant unconventional military, like missiles, chemical and biological weapons, and possibly some nuclear weapons, and ICBM technology is not far off. Iran has indigenous military and significant self sufficiency. Iran has large area and difficult terrain. Iran is capable of stopping oil flow from Persian Gulf with anti-ship missiles and mines. Iran is capable of harming oil production in the region. Iran has Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran will be major energy supplier to China and possibly India and Pakistan. Iran has influence in Iraq.
3. Where is the conflict heading?
My guess is the conflict will continue because these countries have conflicting interests. However, it is unlikely it will escalate into all out war, like in Iraq, unless China and maybe Russia consent, which is very unlikely. I think the conflict will be mainly covert and political.
egoz said:
I think Iran is flexing some muscle in Iraq, but if they really wanted to make it difficult for US they could have done much more. Iran has been very vocal about holding democratic elections in Iraq without delay, because majority of Iraqi’s are Shiites, and even more Iraqi’s are anti-American, so a true democratic consensus will be friendly to Iran and anti-US. This is probably why US first tried to push a “caucus style” election system, unsuccessfully:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1126178,00.html
From the Article:
“At least in Iowa, the Democratic party caucuses involve elections. Not in the US plan for Iraq. The US is proposing that "notables" in each province attend these caucuses to appoint an assembly which would select a government.”
Chocobo_Blitzer
Active member
The Guardian, now there's an objective paper. :roll:
Anyways...
1-What is this conflict about?
Security:
I think the Iranian leaders think if they can equip their country with nuclear weapons, they'll have much more leverage in the world. Things are much different when you can place internal terrorist cells into countries AND you can ensure MAD.
The US might be the strongest nation in the world right now, but it doesn't matter when your enemy can obliterate your country in a heartbeat. Iran is no stranger with terrorist tactics, and those could prove fatal with nuclear weapons. Even without nuclear, Iran could damage the US or her interest indirectly with factions, with little repercussions because of a MAD policy.
2-What leverage does each side have?
The US has the best military and economy to fuel it. Precision and covert capabilities.
Iran has geographical size and population, it would create a very dense situation occupying wise. Incredibly hard, if not impossible (at the moment) for the US to have any real hold on.
3-Where is the conflict heading?
High intensity political
Iranian victory, they will equip themselves with nuclear weapons in the end. There is no stopping them. Any political "victory" the US or allies could receive is fake. The US and Israel can't use their militaries, and Europe is too cowardly.
Anyways...
1-What is this conflict about?
Security:
I think the Iranian leaders think if they can equip their country with nuclear weapons, they'll have much more leverage in the world. Things are much different when you can place internal terrorist cells into countries AND you can ensure MAD.
The US might be the strongest nation in the world right now, but it doesn't matter when your enemy can obliterate your country in a heartbeat. Iran is no stranger with terrorist tactics, and those could prove fatal with nuclear weapons. Even without nuclear, Iran could damage the US or her interest indirectly with factions, with little repercussions because of a MAD policy.
2-What leverage does each side have?
The US has the best military and economy to fuel it. Precision and covert capabilities.
Iran has geographical size and population, it would create a very dense situation occupying wise. Incredibly hard, if not impossible (at the moment) for the US to have any real hold on.
3-Where is the conflict heading?
High intensity political
Iranian victory, they will equip themselves with nuclear weapons in the end. There is no stopping them. Any political "victory" the US or allies could receive is fake. The US and Israel can't use their militaries, and Europe is too cowardly.
godofthunder9010
Active member
Isn't Israel ALWAYS the reason and/or excuse??rostam said:
Anyways, the fact that the Shah was supported heavily by the USA has remained a big sore-point for the Iranian government. The fact that they held hundreds of American's hostage in 1980 has set a very bad image of Iran from the USA's perspective.
The thing that is coming to a head rapidly is the alleged Iranian violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Act. Their regime and that of North Korea are governments that the USA absolutely does not trust with nuclear weapons.
Well, currently the USA only has itself, the UK, Israel and a handful of other allies on their side, mostly because of international outrage over Iraq. The question in my mind is this: Are the USA's hands tied or are we free to act??rostam said:
Worst case scenario, the USA and a tiny group of allies (definitely not including Israel)invades and forcably removes the nuclear threat. Best case scenario: We come to a peaceful resolution -- this would probably require Iran to allow unrestricted access by UN inspectors to verify that their Nuclear Program is strictly for peaceful ends and is not an infringement of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty could be seen by Iranians as a convenient excuse for a US invasion of Iran.rostam said:
It should be mentioned, with Saddam Hussein out of power, Iran is now probably the new #1 funder of global terrorism. They prefer to call them "freedom fighters", but I think we all know what we're talking about -- targeting and killing civilians and military personale if possible, by any means available in order to achieve fundamentalist religious goals.
Anya1982
Banned
iran?
Ok no one jump down my throat will you................just stating what i know
I was out in gulf Nov 2002 just before all this gulf stuff kicked off and i was there til dec 2004 with a month n half some where inbetween back home.
Anyways it was passed on to us from Iran themselves that they wanted nothing to do with iraq and that if any nato force crossed the irani border land and sea that they would deter us hte best way they see fit.
If anything is going to happen it would be that iran has been bullied into it but they have stated that terroisim is not there game.
While we were out in gulf we built a relationship with iran...........eventually they let us do certain things as long as having their permission.....................
I see as accusations are being jumped at and not thought through enough
Ok no one jump down my throat will you................just stating what i know
I was out in gulf Nov 2002 just before all this gulf stuff kicked off and i was there til dec 2004 with a month n half some where inbetween back home.
Anyways it was passed on to us from Iran themselves that they wanted nothing to do with iraq and that if any nato force crossed the irani border land and sea that they would deter us hte best way they see fit.
If anything is going to happen it would be that iran has been bullied into it but they have stated that terroisim is not there game.
While we were out in gulf we built a relationship with iran...........eventually they let us do certain things as long as having their permission.....................
I see as accusations are being jumped at and not thought through enough
godofthunder9010
Active member
Re: iran?
It sounds awful to say that Iran is bullied into something. And yet its something they officially agreed to in the first place when they signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Glad to hear that but its been their game for ... what, 25 years now? When did they switch up? I'm 100% in favor of it, but they've got such a lousy track record that it sound too good to be true.Anya1982 said:
From 1980 on, the USA and its people and Iran and its people have mutually held a grudge against one another. Obviously you gotta drop that sort of thing if your going to make any progress.Anya1982 said:
It sounds awful to say that Iran is bullied into something. And yet its something they officially agreed to in the first place when they signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Anya1982
Banned
ok
But that is all it is USA Vs Iran so why bother the rest of the world as they are no threat to us............................
Plus us military gave their old vechiles/ships/boats/weapons to countries like yeman and iraq and a few other countries
So in a way is that counted as fighting ur self?
lol sorry trying to be cocky
But that is all it is USA Vs Iran so why bother the rest of the world as they are no threat to us............................
Plus us military gave their old vechiles/ships/boats/weapons to countries like yeman and iraq and a few other countries
So in a way is that counted as fighting ur self?
lol sorry trying to be cocky
godofthunder9010
Active member
I suppose I'm having trouble seeing where we're disagreeing ...
Well, I'll counter one point. Israel feels PLENTY threatened by the idea of an Iran with nukes. So its more than the USA. Also, everybody in the region would get in a big rush to develop Nuclear Weapons of their own -- brothers in Islam be damned, they don't trust each other one bit.
Well, I'll counter one point. Israel feels PLENTY threatened by the idea of an Iran with nukes. So its more than the USA. Also, everybody in the region would get in a big rush to develop Nuclear Weapons of their own -- brothers in Islam be damned, they don't trust each other one bit.
godofthunder9010
Active member
Actually is a pretty damn short list -- the Nations that Have Nukes: 'Anya1982 said:
1.) USA
2.) Russia (not entirely sure how that divvies out to Commonwealth states)
3.) The UK
4.) France
5.) Pakistan
6.) India
7.) China
8.) Israel
And that's all folks!!
Anya1982
Banned
there a few other countries that have them.
Russia is not commonwealth but any NATO tours that are done Russia is involved "just to keep them happy"
Russia have the means to destroy a vast amount...............they have a crappy armed forces not alot of money yet their nuclear enforcement is alot bigger than we originally thought.
Don't let russia fool you
Russia is not commonwealth but any NATO tours that are done Russia is involved "just to keep them happy"
Russia have the means to destroy a vast amount...............they have a crappy armed forces not alot of money yet their nuclear enforcement is alot bigger than we originally thought.
Don't let russia fool you
godofthunder9010
Active member
Okay, so who are they?Anya1982 said:
Okay I won't I guess. How do they intend to to fool me though? :? :?Anya1982 said: