How long could Taiwan hold out?
Shmack
Active member
Stemming? Not a chance. As for how long to hold out, obviously it depends mostly on how long and how effectively Taiwanese navy could contain Chinese assault. Taiwan currently has 4 destroyers, 22 frigates, and 4 subs against Chinese 26 destroyers, 52 frigates, 47 submarines (sick!), and soon they will have aircraft carriers. However, Taiwan has a pretty strong air force which could cause big troubles for the assault. If China really wants to take over Taiwan and manages to destroy substantial part of their air force very fast, thus recieving unquestionable air superiority, i'm sure it won't take more than a couple of weeks.
Geography is also Taiwan's enemy. Unfortunately for Taiwan, Taiwan Strait is just 130 km wide - within Chinese land-launched cruise missiles operational range. What's more, if you look at the map you'll see that most of cities and industry on the island is located on a tight strip of lowlands along the western coast, which means there is absolutely no room for smart mobile defense.
Geography is also Taiwan's enemy. Unfortunately for Taiwan, Taiwan Strait is just 130 km wide - within Chinese land-launched cruise missiles operational range. What's more, if you look at the map you'll see that most of cities and industry on the island is located on a tight strip of lowlands along the western coast, which means there is absolutely no room for smart mobile defense.
A Can of Man
Je suis aware
Yup but there is ample opportunities for static mountain defense. So if the PRC are planning to take Taiwan without nuking it, their soldiers better be doing a lot of cliff climbing.
mmarsh
Active member
They could definitely hold on until US reinforcements arrived. The Taiwanese have had 50 years to turn their little island into a fortress, and the Taiwanese Marines especially have the reputation of being some really tough hombres.
If I were a PRC soldier I would be nervous about my chances.
I don't know if the Taiwanese could hold on indefinitely, but they would leave the Chinese very, very bloodied.
If I were a PRC soldier I would be nervous about my chances.
I don't know if the Taiwanese could hold on indefinitely, but they would leave the Chinese very, very bloodied.
Shmack
Active member
Right, but this means that the Taiwanese will have to deliver up their citites. They will of course have a great opportunity to bring down fire from the uplands on the Chinese, burning all their own cities on the occasion as well. Anyway i wonder if they have mountain troops in China.
A Can of Man
Je suis aware
I'm sure they do, but I got a feeling that on home turf, the Taiwanese will maul them to death.
Shmack
Active member
Agree on that.
oz codger
Active member
Can I resurrect this?
In my personal view, a conventional invasion of the island of Taiwan would FAIL! In order to succeed China has to send 100s of conventional missiles to all airfields. bases and ports.
THEN they have to move many 1000s of paratroopers, and over the beach soldiers with all supplies, the 150 Kms of the Taiwan Strait. That in itself is a bigger task than 'Overlord' given the concentrated size and strength of the defenders.
The planes and ships required to move the force will be subjected to a barrage of anti-air and anti-ship missiles every km of that journey, from the moment they leave the ground or the port.
The US has satellite overflights of about 10 times a day over the east Chinese 'invasion ports', and they cannot scratch themselves without Taiwan knowing about it long before the invaders can set sail. Something the peace loving Germans never had.
Those anti-air and anti-ship missiles are mostly truck mounted, and scattered all over Taiwan, in particular in those mountains down the spine of the island. They will all be dug well in many tunnels and caves etc all over the place.
The eastern side of Taiwan is almost all mountains all the way to the sea and the western side is mainly mud flats at low tide. And urban warfare as soon as they arrive.
"Million man swim"
OC
In my personal view, a conventional invasion of the island of Taiwan would FAIL! In order to succeed China has to send 100s of conventional missiles to all airfields. bases and ports.
THEN they have to move many 1000s of paratroopers, and over the beach soldiers with all supplies, the 150 Kms of the Taiwan Strait. That in itself is a bigger task than 'Overlord' given the concentrated size and strength of the defenders.
The planes and ships required to move the force will be subjected to a barrage of anti-air and anti-ship missiles every km of that journey, from the moment they leave the ground or the port.
The US has satellite overflights of about 10 times a day over the east Chinese 'invasion ports', and they cannot scratch themselves without Taiwan knowing about it long before the invaders can set sail. Something the peace loving Germans never had.
Those anti-air and anti-ship missiles are mostly truck mounted, and scattered all over Taiwan, in particular in those mountains down the spine of the island. They will all be dug well in many tunnels and caves etc all over the place.
The eastern side of Taiwan is almost all mountains all the way to the sea and the western side is mainly mud flats at low tide. And urban warfare as soon as they arrive.
"Million man swim"
OC
Last edited:
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
As long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, China doesn't attack them. China is pretty happy to keep things at they are right now. The US will assist Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan, but only if China attacks without a Taiwanese declaration of independence. (The Taiwan Relation Act)
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
North Korea is a bigger problem than Taiwan is
oz codger
Active member
Monty,
In #8 I did use the word 'conventional" and assumed the use of short range missiles to erase targets above ground. But Taiwan is not stupid, they know all this and must have planned for it and i will bet the main stuff is well underground. Every ambitious Colonel will have game planned and documented everything that can or should happen.
I really doubt that the USN has to join the fight. There will be a blockade for sure but the invasion will be defeated before it can take effect.
With tunnels all over the mountains, some of which will be fakes, China cannot hope to zap every hiding place and every mile of road on the island. IF China cannot remove a high % of the anti-air and anti-ship missiles from the contest I believe she would fail.
Nevertheless I am certain that if China had charmed the pants off Taiwan over the past decade or two she would have had the island back in the fold well before now.
JMO
OC
In #8 I did use the word 'conventional" and assumed the use of short range missiles to erase targets above ground. But Taiwan is not stupid, they know all this and must have planned for it and i will bet the main stuff is well underground. Every ambitious Colonel will have game planned and documented everything that can or should happen.
I really doubt that the USN has to join the fight. There will be a blockade for sure but the invasion will be defeated before it can take effect.
With tunnels all over the mountains, some of which will be fakes, China cannot hope to zap every hiding place and every mile of road on the island. IF China cannot remove a high % of the anti-air and anti-ship missiles from the contest I believe she would fail.
Nevertheless I am certain that if China had charmed the pants off Taiwan over the past decade or two she would have had the island back in the fold well before now.
JMO
OC
I3BrigPvSk
The Viking
Sure, they can use nukes against Taiwan, the term conventional means not using N weapons. China can use C- weapons and probably not get the same international reaction as they get if they are using nukes. B-weapons are tricky to use efficiently, maybe the latter can be spread prior the major hostilities begin. The Chinese don't need to fear the US navy, but it will fear the interference of the US air power. The battle will probably be an air battle and not a naval battle