WASHINGTON - The CIA recently concluded that Cuban leader Fidel Castro suffers from Parkinson's disease and has warned U.S. policymakers to be ready for trouble if the 79-year-old ruler's health erodes over the next few years.
If true, the CIA's assessment of the nonfatal but debilitating condition would mean Castro may be entering a period where doctors say the symptoms grow more evident, medicines are less effective and mental functions start to deteriorate.
Although Castro's brother Raul, head of the armed forces, has been anointed as his successor, Cuba analysts fear the possibility of a tumultuous period during which an incapacitated Castro refuses to give up power but can no longer project his overpowering personality to Cuba's 11 million people.
"For Fidel to start shaking in a real and substantial way - in public - sends quite a powerful message to people around the world," said Frank O. Mora, a professor of national security strategy at The National War College.