Afghanistan's future includes power to Taliban


Let me put it bluntly. This war does not end with a clear military victory. It will have a different ending where one or other form of political agreement is necessary. It is clear that you do not make deals with al-Qaeda, but it is possible to talk with Taliban leaders. One should remember that the Taliban are a part of Afghan society. The movement is woven into the population through family ties, tribes and so on. Therefore, it is easy to make connections and keep up. But it is quite another to create a genuine political process.

I am sure that the Taliban will return to power in Afghanistan. The only question is whether they will become sole ruler, as they were up to the U.S. invasion in 2001. I doubt it. The Taliban have learned much since their government was overthrown. They know that they no longer solely can have all power. The Taliban is also developing, and discussing internally, what the right strategy is. The only question is what kind of Taliban, we will see. The movement has learned a lot since it was in power. It has learned something about his weaknesses. It has realized that it is dependent upon others and that there is a limit to how hard and fundamentalist it may endanger the local population if it is to ensure support. The danger is that they forget it all in the ecstasy that will occur when we leave the country. Then the Taliban will be heroes. But they will have to face reality really fast. People are tired of their governance, but they're even more tired of the western troops. So in the short term it may well give the Taliban a lot of goodwill. In the longer term it will turn out that Taliban - paradoxically considered that it is the enemy of the West that we are currently doing everything possible to combat - may well prove to be a stabilizing factor in the region, seen through Western eyes. They know, in good and evil, how to control the country. The crux of course, is how to ensure that the Taliban do not again give shelter to international terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda, as it did before the terrorist attack of 9/11 - 2001.
As right you are, as bleak as your predictions are... you are quite right!
Long while ago as I was analyzing expenditures of war, I had a conclusion, that instead of firring bullets, it would make sense to buy them fu$kers right out! one problem though- the more money you'd waste, they'd have- it does not relate to sensible spending (by humane understanding) and local wars will fuel up to spending on arms and "economy" rising- drugs and if it pays- real terorism