A general state of balance at the edge of the chasm


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I was considering the state of things in the world. The world at large is at peace for a variety of reasons. Israel brokered a deal with Egypt for the cessation of hostilities targeting at them, in exchange for the Sinai peninsula. Both sides remain armed and poised to strike, but have honored the agreement. India and Pakistan have avoided further war mostly because of the threat of a nuclear exchange and all that entails. China and India have basically agreed to leave each other alone. Russia and China have a basic understanding not to attack each other right now, and the mutual nuclear threat adds greater assurance to this. Russia lost much of the teeth of its military with the breakup of the Soviet Union, but its still an incredibly potent military. NATO on the opposite side of Russia is a strong deterrent to any westward attack by any former Soviet states, and the former Soviet states have more important internal problems to deal with for now. It looks unlikely that they'll ever reunite, though nothing is ever certain. Instability in the Balkans is more quiet now than it has been for a very long time, but that region is so prone to conflict that its hard to imagine things being quiet for long.

Eurasia is stacked like dominoes. Like an unlit powder keg. It contains most of the significant military powers in the world. The majority of the world's nations who are militarily, technologically and economically up to date or at the least updating are packed into the supercontinent.

The variables in the equation are the Muslim nations of the world and the United States.

Most significant of these is the United States for the moment. With no real threat of invasion and the world's best logistical support for relocating its military to anywhere in the world they are needed, the United States becomes a two edged sword. They have the freedom of movement to be able to keep the whole equation in balance. They also half the potential for kicking over the first domino and starting a giant mess. Naturally, the US has no intention of being the cause of such a thing, but the potential is there whether you like it or not. Sometimes the best of intentions blow up in your face.

The Muslim world is enormous, but lacks any direction or centralized leadership. The potential of a united Islam cannot be understated, though it is unlikely we'll see it anytime soon. The majority of the Muslim nations lack the technological and economic strength to be significantly dangerous, but that's a matter that can change.

So how long can the world remain at rest? Obviously, if the worst happens, it will definitely be the worst ever. Where will it start from?
Well..... I suppose it would be a combo of the US knocking a domino and a united Islam. What with the Iranian nuclear crisis that must be resolved within 4 or so years, I wouldn't be surprised if somehow someone or some faction managed to unite a lot of muslims against the west.

By trying to make peace in the middle-east, we could end up doing the opposite! Darn radicals!
As long as USA does not do silly things (risking war against China), world will be in peace for 1000 years.

Terrorisme is a problem, but it is just a tiny problem, it is too much hyped by US propaganda. Just look at world, how many places are really in danger by terrorists? Almost none. The case of Russia's Beslan does not happen every day.

As long as major powers don't try to kill each other, there is permanent peace on earth.
We're sitting in the same situation as WW1, only its much more widespread. Everyone is technologically semi-equal and have built up armies. You have an arms race of sorts, nobody wanting to fall behind in military tech. You have your rivalries, situations of mistrust and and a few cases of complete hatred. At the very least, I think humanity has learned something of how truly inglorious war truly is. The world of 1914 was quite naive.
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As long as the world powers dont declare war on each other, then the world will stay at a relative state of peace.
As long as China does not do silly things (risking war with America) the world will be at peace for 1000 years.

and perhaps a united Islam, that could be born from the dust unsettled in the war on terror. I think the danger of Islamic extremism is downplayed by Chinese (ok ok.... foreign) propaganda.

Seems to me muslims don't really like us.....I mean, turn on al jazerra and them folks are constantly being fed anti-western and anti-jewish rubbish. Plus the wars in Afganistan and Iraq are seen as western evil acts to most muslims. Which, ironicly enough, are meant to counter the the hatred for the west.