is taiwan a card in a U.S-China politic game? - Page 4




 
--
Boots
 
March 2nd, 2005  
chewie_nz
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sexybeast
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big_Z
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big_Z
I dont think Tiawan needs China at all.
Mutually, neither ABSOLUTELY needs the other, but both benefit from each other. What I fail to see is how China plans to sell the idea of submitting to PRC governmental rule. If you can tell me why Taiwan would be significantly better off under the PRC's rule, then you may have saved millions of dollars, millions of lives and a whole lot of rebuilding costs.
Yea but there is nothing that China could offer to improve their way of life
look at the trade number,

half of taiwan's importing and exporting are to china,

if the tie cuts, taiwan loses 40-50 billion of trade revenue over night,

for an island of GDP of around 300 billion....50 billion U.S is not a small number, it may bring an economic depression
because china is their closest neibour, if china stops trading, taiwan will find another partner, such is the way of business
March 2nd, 2005  
Sexybeast
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by chewie_nz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sexybeast
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big_Z
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big_Z
I dont think Tiawan needs China at all.
Mutually, neither ABSOLUTELY needs the other, but both benefit from each other. What I fail to see is how China plans to sell the idea of submitting to PRC governmental rule. If you can tell me why Taiwan would be significantly better off under the PRC's rule, then you may have saved millions of dollars, millions of lives and a whole lot of rebuilding costs.
Yea but there is nothing that China could offer to improve their way of life
look at the trade number,

half of taiwan's importing and exporting are to china,

if the tie cuts, taiwan loses 40-50 billion of trade revenue over night,

for an island of GDP of around 300 billion....50 billion U.S is not a small number, it may bring an economic depression
because china is their closest neibour, if china stops trading, taiwan will find another partner, such is the way of business
tell me how u find another partner who buy 40 billion U.S of product overnight

and how do u reorgnize the economic structure to meet the standard of ur new custumers.....

economy is not that easy , it is very complicated and closely tied with politics
March 2nd, 2005  
godofthunder9010
 
 
The economics of it is simple enough. If trade routes are cut off, everybody loses. Isn't that always the way of things?

But that doesn't amount to ABSOLUTE need. Both China and Taiwan can survive well enough without each other. They'd be better off without that happening of course.
--
Boots
March 2nd, 2005  
Sexybeast
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
The economics of it is simple enough. If trade routes are cut off, everybody loses. Isn't that always the way of things?

But that doesn't amount to ABSOLUTE need. Both China and Taiwan can survive well enough without each other. They'd be better off without that happening of course.
if just looking at numbers,,.....

trading with taiwan is only 5-6% of china's total trading revenue, and investment is also just a small portion within the super large chinese economy,

however, the same amount of money is huge for Taiwan, counting nearly half of Taiwan's total trading revenue, supporting countless number of taiwanese ppl's jobs , and also government programs (taxing),

and those half-million taiwanese in china who work, study and earn money.....

for them, working in china is much easier than going to some where else with a distinctively different lauguage and culture...
March 2nd, 2005  
chewie_nz
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sexybeast
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
The economics of it is simple enough. If trade routes are cut off, everybody loses. Isn't that always the way of things?

But that doesn't amount to ABSOLUTE need. Both China and Taiwan can survive well enough without each other. They'd be better off without that happening of course.
if just looking at numbers,,.....

trading with taiwan is only 5-6% of china's total trading revenue, and investment is also just a small portion within the super large chinese economy,

however, the same amount of money is huge for Taiwan, counting nearly half of Taiwan's total trading revenue, supporting countless number of taiwanese ppl's jobs , and also government programs (taxing),

and those half-million taiwanese in china who work, study and earn money.....

for them, working in china is much easier than going to some where else with a distinctively different lauguage and culture...
you forget about the other major trading partner of both these countries...the US. can china do without trade from the US
March 2nd, 2005  
Sexybeast
 
does that related to this issue?

like U.S will not trade with china anymore when taiwan declares independace?

i bet americans want to sacrafice 200 billion U.S dollar partner for taiwan's own foolish action of declaring independace (U.S warned many times to taiwan to not pick a fight and start a war for U.S)

specifc number
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/...5700.html#2004
March 2nd, 2005  
godofthunder9010
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sexybeast
does that related to this issue?

like U.S will not trade with china anymore when taiwan declares independace?

i bet americans want to sacrafice 200 billion U.S dollar partner for taiwan's own foolish action of declaring independace (U.S warned many times to taiwan to not pick a fight and start a war for U.S)
That would be more likely to occur the moment that China lauches a pile of missiles or invades or whatever else they decide on to punish Taiwan. Economically, the only good outcomes is either maintaining the Status Quo, reunification, or (by some act of God) China allowing Taiwan to declare independence without retaliation.
March 2nd, 2005  
chewie_nz
 
status quo definately

china quietly threatning, taiwan carrying on regardless. and the US trying to straddle the fence.

don't worry china, taiwan will come back at a time of their peoples choosing
March 2nd, 2005  
Sexybeast
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sexybeast
does that related to this issue?

like U.S will not trade with china anymore when taiwan declares independace?

i bet americans want to sacrafice 200 billion U.S dollar partner for taiwan's own foolish action of declaring independace (U.S warned many times to taiwan to not pick a fight and start a war for U.S)
That would be more likely to occur the moment that China lauches a pile of missiles or invades or whatever else they decide on to punish Taiwan. Economically, the only good outcomes is either maintaining the Status Quo, reunification, or (by some act of God) China allowing Taiwan to declare independence without retaliation.
i doubt that will happen if U.S believes it is taiwan who provokes this mess......i doubt ur congressmen will allow an embargo on china (and also on ur self) if it is taiwanese who tries to drag U.S into a terrible war

as ur own CIA director says a few days ago, "If Beijing decides that Taiwan is taking steps toward permanent separation that exceed Beijing's tolerance, we believe China is prepared to respond with various levels of force"

the war will last a few generation and no one will be the winner (said by the same guy)

is U.S ready to sacarfice itself for Taiwan?
March 2nd, 2005  
godofthunder9010
 
 
Nobody doubts China's resolve to attack Taiwan the moment they declare independence. I just personally believe that China doesn't need to take such a hard line stance. China and its people have committed themselves to it, and because of their culture, the cannot back down. Doing so would mean losing face and that in a time when China is just getting past a giant list of embarrassments inflicted upon them by Europe first, then Japan. China has talked themselves into believing that Taiwan is where they prove that the West will not have it way with them ever again. The problem is, it isn't the West that is doing it. Its the Taiwanese themselves that are pushing for it.