Russia,the new Saudi Arbia?

Yossarian

Yossarian

Forum Resistance Leader
I been watching the Science channel,when a program came on about the Russians finding lots,and I mean Lots of oil under sea of their east coast,And this makes me feel uneasy due to the fact that Russia may make billions in profit off of these reserves.The thing that scares me is that then they may thry to pull back some of their old soveit ways ,may build an huge armed forces branch with a virtualy unlimited military budget.The main reasons the Old Soveit Union fell was beacause the Afghanistan war was upseting the Russian people.Also the Chernobly acciedent and the fact that the Soveit Union Could not Compete with the United States economy.


The thing is that the Russians have been through h#ll economicly in the 90s.They may react to all these funds from oil in a strange way.By resorting to the last generation,the Soveit generation of Politions and let them take to the new profits off of oil,in turn make Cause the Russian Federation to become a dealdy super power once again and challenge the only one that Remains,the United States Of America,a empire in denial.


It would be a hard road once again....
 
I have heard that a return to the old ways is something that Putin favors. I don't know how rapidly Russia could regain control over those countries that have seceded or the old satellite countries, but I doubt the transition in Russia would be very difficult if the politicians and the military were united.

...course I'm about as close to an expert on this as I am nuclear physics.
 
For the russian rich gus and oil,
Russian people became rich and 70% supports Putin the Novaja Tzar.
All right,Russia still have so many plobrems(Education system,sharp decline in the number of births)
but Russia will maintain her potential growth rate.
 
Well they may pull something along the lines of ,lets go back to our soveit ways but not invade our old satilite nations.

Look up Pripyat on image search on your home page,Its not what happend there is what I m getting to,its a perfect model of an Soveit town in a Soveit era.Just looking at the construction of the town can give you clues of the old Soveit rule,and life as a citizen.

I just hope they dont pull something to go back to that.
 
Russian oil only means more money for the oligarchy. The people will suffer as usual. In fact, the average quality of life has decreased sharply since 1990. Who cares that a handful oil barons will be as rich as Bill Gates. Russia is still a backward resource-rich country that only aspires to greatness. They will not, however, adopt the Chinese model and actually start thinking in terms of the game "Civilization". Without basic infrastructure, Russia will only become more dependent on trading resources for manufactured goods.
 
You have a strong stance on that,Russia's biggest export today,small arms weapons.I m still fearful that if given the chance,Russia will try to live out the glory period of the Old Soveit Union once again.
 
Im not saying they will attack anyone,it would be the tense situation that would be the killer. Look at the fifities in the United States.Or the Cuban missle crisis.If the Russian Federation in the Coming decades gets rich,very rich,the qaulity of life for the russian people wont change,but for the goverment will.Thus,a huge unessesary military may be spawned.Why?Im not sure.
 
Sukio,
You can sleep well at night:)
Your fear is over-exaggerated!

Russia has already enormous wealth of natural resources, however, it doesn't make her rich or powerful on a long run.
Ollie G. is very correct pointing out the defficiency of the Russian infrastructure, etc.
I can add much more...
The problem is - they just CAN'T use that wealth to make their military strong again. Why? It is not easy to answer in a short post...
The best approach would be to BUY the newest weaponry overseas(i.e. from the States). Why it is the best, because these huge spendings will not increase inflation inside the country. But they can't buy american weapons - our government won't let them, their public opinion won't let them.
If they will start pour money into their military-industrial complex - it will be making a huge inflation pressure on their economy. And a lot of money will be just stolen or inefficiently used.
But the most important reason(ang Ollie G. has mentioned it, too) - consider Russia as a huge oil company. It's owners(Russian oligarchy and establishment) need the paying customers for their oil, not the territories to conquer...
Yes, many people in Russia are nostalgic for the past glory... But those who make the decisions, know that it is not possible...

The Soviet Union has collapsed because the price of oil went down. I think there are chances that current Russia will not survive the next period of the low oil prices, neither
 
boris116 said:
The Soviet Union has collapsed because the price of oil went down. I think there are chances that current Russia will not survive the next period of the low oil prices, neither
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Thanks for the general support, but when did oil prices go down? They are at record levels. Even if the current price is reduced by a third, and the current Arab-Israeli "war" or Chinese expansion makes this impossible, the price will be a staggering $50 per barrel. Oil is keeping Russia in business.

Russia's problems are not really related to resources...except maybe the fact that extracting these resources is capital intensive. That is why Putin needed Germany to finance and essentially build the new Baltic natural gas pipeline. Russia cannot really move forward without a much better industrial system. The problem is related to how this could be achieved. Russia, unlike China, respects international law and will not just steal technology or flood the market with goods. Why? Mostly because the West has no interest in seeing Russia rise to greatness. They would not import Russian junk, anyway. [Why we import cheap Chinese junk is another matter that deals with our own oligarchy].

Hard Russian power is a fantasy. I would argue that the long term Russian policy of exploiting the people is the real problem. The masses only represent some kind of slave community. The US has a similar policy, but it at least permits the middle classes to get a few crumbs...and has a powerful set of myths to keep everyone spiritually happy. The Russian government cannot move in this direction because of the oligarchy. They all want to be in the top 25 of the Fortune 500.
 
Hopefully Putin and his successors listen to good and proper reason: Russia will remain a relativly backward nation until, as others have said, it develops a good and proper infrastructure, in turn promoting confidence in the nation-patriotism. When the average person see's that their new system can work, things will get better. The best thing the western world can do for now is treat Russia as an ally, offer incentives for good behavior, etc....

In good sense, Russia should use oil profits to create the worlds largest (ever) railroad system, this is problably the best thing they can do at this stage.
P.S. Don't bash Russia over the Ukrainian oil incident.
 
Ollie Garchy said:
Thanks for the general support, but when did oil prices go down? They are at record levels. Even if the current price is reduced by a third, and the current Arab-Israeli "war" or Chinese expansion makes this impossible, the price will be a staggering $50 per barrel. Oil is keeping Russia in business.
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Ollie, I was referring to the 80-s.The life in the USSR has become much better in the 70-s(world oil crisis) and went down rapidly in the 80-s when the oil prices went down.
The government got used to the fat oil profits to finance everything - from the army to the toilet paper.
When these profits have decreased, the ordinary people immediately have lost the sense of prosperity

Ollie Garchy said:
Russia's problems are not really related to resources...except maybe the fact that extracting these resources is capital intensive. That is why Putin needed Germany to finance and essentially build the new Baltic natural gas pipeline. Russia cannot really move forward without a much better industrial system. The problem is related to how this could be achieved. Russia, unlike China, respects international law and will not just steal technology or flood the market with goods. Why? Mostly because the West has no interest in seeing Russia rise to greatness. They would not import Russian junk, anyway. [Why we import cheap Chinese junk is another matter that deals with our own oligarchy].
Click to expand...
Yes, the Russian problems directly are related to the natural resources!
They don't need to do anything, just pump the oil and sell it. They don't need to use thier brains, they could treat peole like shit. All of this - due to the natural resources.
Russian junk is too expensive to be competitive.
BTW, Moscow - is THE MOST EXPENSIVE CITY ON EARTH!!
 
SNowblind said:
In good sense, Russia should use oil profits to create the worlds largest (ever) railroad system, this is problably the best thing they can do at this stage.
P.S. Don't bash Russia over the Ukrainian oil incident.
Click to expand...
By your age, you should have better knowledge of geography:???:

Russia has already the largest railroad network in the world!
Are you referring to the Ukrainian GAS incident?
 
Russia is a declining power if you look at birth rates alone, at this rate there will be 100 million people living in the largest country in the world by 2050, a drop by a third.That might increase per capita living standards, but if the oligarchs are still around, per capita earnings would be meaningless. Russia isn't going to have the large army like it used to because of the population drop and the crappy way recruits are treated by everyone.

Russia can improve itself to become an important eurasian power again, but not a superpower, those days are gone. The best thing the russian govt can do is to reduce corruption, improve infrastructure like their roads, and increase overall democratic participation. Putin might have reduced civil liberaties and democratic methods in the past, but russian citizens don't really care. So you have to teach them why they have to care in order to make their country better and not run by a plutocracy.
 
Russia s action in the future of no oil,may apear as a desperate grasp for internatilnal,attention,something that they have been lacking since the fall of communism.In many ways if the leaders of the broken nation may soon realize ,they may never restore Russia's former pride in the international community.
 
boris116 said:
1. "Ollie, I was referring to the 80-s.The life in the USSR has become much better in the 70-s(world oil crisis) and went down rapidly in the 80-s when the oil prices went down".

2. "Yes, the Russian problems directly are related to the natural resources!
They don't need to do anything, just pump the oil and sell it. They don't need to use thier brains, they could treat peole like shit. All of this - due to the natural resources...Russian junk is too expensive to be competitive".
Click to expand...

1. Ok. Misread that one.

2. Resource-rich countries are doomed to success. That is, as long as the elite does not hog all of the profit for itself. Canada or Australia are perfect examples of successful resource-based economies.

Russia is, of course, unlike Canada or Saudi Arabia. The largest country in the world is more like Congo. A poor political system and corrupt cultural values hamper any movement forward. Russian problems run really deep.

I am not sure that I fully understand the population downturn issue. Poverty normally leads to higher birth rates. Why the Russian population base is decreasing is not something that I know anything about. Can anyone explain why?
 
Beacuase the average russian male will become a alcholic by the age of 20,statsitcs also show that the average womens age is 60,and mans is fify.Low health care and poverty is the driving force for heavy dinking and low self of steam due to the low quality of life.There is a rise in women some times resoring to getting married with men in other parts of the world,then trying to go overseas and getting a life in the United States or western Europe.Thats just statitics,

no offense is meant by this,
 
Ollie Garchy said:
I am not sure that I fully understand the population downturn issue. Poverty normally leads to higher birth rates. Why the Russian population base is decreasing is not something that I know anything about. Can anyone explain why?
Click to expand...

There is a compounded problem here:
Poverty is usually associated with low education, so highly educated people bear less children, than uneducated. More affluent - less than the poor.
In Russia, they have both oppposites(high educational level and poverty) combined in addition to very common alkoholism(beer is not considered as an alcoholic beverage), AIDS and two world wars...
 
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