Pakistan will be a failed state by 2015: CIA




 
--
Boots
 
February 14th, 2005  
Xion
 

Topic: Pakistan will be a failed state by 2015: CIA


Quote:
Pakistan will be a "failed" state by 2015, as it would be affected by civil war, complete Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons, premier US intelligence agencies have said in an assessment report.

Forecasting a "Yugoslavia-like fate" for Pakistan, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in a jointly prepared Global Futures Assessment Report have said "by year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation".

"Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction," said the report quoted by former Pakistan High Commissioner to United Kingdom Wajid Shamsul Hasan in an article in the 'South Asia Tribune'.

Titled 'Will Pakistan Army invade Balochistan as per the NIC-CIA Plan', the former senior diplomat said, "In the context of Balochistan, one would like to refer to the 2015 NIC report. It forecast a Yugoslavia-like fate for Pakistan.

"The military operation that has been put in motion there would further distance the Baloch people from rest of the country. That perhaps is the (NIC-CIA) Plan," Hasan said.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/1...5,00080001.htm



Latest CIA Report says Pakistani Nukes Can be Stolen by Terrorists

Quote:
Use of stolen or purchased nuclear weapons from Pakistan or Russia by terrorists cannot be ruled out within the next 15 years, the latest CIA report prepared by the prestigious nerve center of strategic thinking in the US intelligence community, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), reveals.

The 119-Page Report is issued every 5 years and was declassified by the CIA in December 2004.

“Terrorists will continue to seek to acquire fissile material in order to construct a nuclear weapon. Concurrently, they can be expected to continue attempting to purchase or steal a weapon, particularly in Russia or Pakistan. Given the possibility that terrorists could acquire nuclear weapons, the use of such weapons by extremists before 2020 cannot be ruled out,” the report titled "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project," says. It is available on the CIA's Web site (Link given below). The two previous reports were issued in 1995 and 2000.
Read More: http://www.satribune.com/archives/200502/P1_nic.htm


Comments..
February 14th, 2005  
gingerbeard
 

Topic: Re: Pakistan will be a failed state by 2015: CIA


Quote:
Originally Posted by Xion
Quote:
Pakistan will be a "failed" state by 2015, as it would be affected by civil war, complete Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons, premier US intelligence agencies have said in an assessment report.

Forecasting a "Yugoslavia-like fate" for Pakistan, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in a jointly prepared Global Futures Assessment Report have said "by year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation".

"Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction," said the report quoted by former Pakistan High Commissioner to United Kingdom Wajid Shamsul Hasan in an article in the 'South Asia Tribune'.

Titled 'Will Pakistan Army invade Balochistan as per the NIC-CIA Plan', the former senior diplomat said, "In the context of Balochistan, one would like to refer to the 2015 NIC report. It forecast a Yugoslavia-like fate for Pakistan.

"The military operation that has been put in motion there would further distance the Baloch people from rest of the country. That perhaps is the (NIC-CIA) Plan," Hasan said.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/1...5,00080001.htm



Latest CIA Report says Pakistani Nukes Can be Stolen by Terrorists

Quote:
Use of stolen or purchased nuclear weapons from Pakistan or Russia by terrorists cannot be ruled out within the next 15 years, the latest CIA report prepared by the prestigious nerve center of strategic thinking in the US intelligence community, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), reveals.

The 119-Page Report is issued every 5 years and was declassified by the CIA in December 2004.

“Terrorists will continue to seek to acquire fissile material in order to construct a nuclear weapon. Concurrently, they can be expected to continue attempting to purchase or steal a weapon, particularly in Russia or Pakistan. Given the possibility that terrorists could acquire nuclear weapons, the use of such weapons by extremists before 2020 cannot be ruled out,” the report titled "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project," says. It is available on the CIA's Web site (Link given below). The two previous reports were issued in 1995 and 2000.
Read More: http://www.satribune.com/archives/200502/P1_nic.htm


Comments..
i doubt it, ppl have been predicting china's communist gov would be pulled down in a matter of few years after the 1989 event. did it really happen? not to mention to predict something 10 years later.
February 14th, 2005  
Peter Pan
 
The Chinese govt can't be pulled down by wishful thinking.

It requires a cultural change and an appetite for materialism.

Competition is wonderful in some way but it also leads to jealousies. The areas which will progress will be disliked by those areas which are left behind. Then there shall be dissensions and strife.

This dissension and strike will be fanned by those who wish to bring down the govt. Then and then only will there be a change in form. Of course this is but a very simplistic way of putting a complex issue into perspective.

So long as the Chinese govt keeps a tight rein, very little can happen.

The Chinese leadership understand all this. Tiennamen Square was just a trailer to the movie that can happen.

Globalisation and Liberalisation will be controlled and not allowed to run its course in a freewheeling manner.
--
Boots
February 14th, 2005  
Peter Pan
 
Xion,

I wonder if Pakistan would be a failed Stare per se unless the Mullahs take hold.

To understand the situation you may like to see 'google' the following:

A question of national identity by Gulmina Bilal 14 Feb 2005 (Jang)

Fundamentalism from the Pakistani perspective by the same lady.

Secularism and the state by the same lady (Jang).

If you visit World Affairs Board (Asia Forum) and also the Poltical Forum many links on the subject of the current state of Pakistan will be available.

Pakistan was looking up, but unfortunately the Balochistan issue, Waziristhan, Northern Territories hassles has added on to the problems that were already there with the sectarian violence getting unabated.

Investments were coming in but with a turbulent and unsettled internal security, these will be scared off.
February 14th, 2005  
Darcia
 
Well The CIA normaly has a good idea of what is going to happen. Thier main problem is normaly they get the dates a few decades off.
February 15th, 2005  
gingerbeard
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Pan
The Chinese govt can't be pulled down by wishful thinking.

It requires a cultural change and an appetite for materialism.

Competition is wonderful in some way but it also leads to jealousies. The areas which will progress will be disliked by those areas which are left behind. Then there shall be dissensions and strife.

This dissension and strike will be fanned by those who wish to bring down the govt. Then and then only will there be a change in form. Of course this is but a very simplistic way of putting a complex issue into perspective.

So long as the Chinese govt keeps a tight rein, very little can happen.

The Chinese leadership understand all this. Tiennamen Square was just a trailer to the movie that can happen.

Globalisation and Liberalisation will be controlled and not allowed to run its course in a freewheeling manner.
not totally true, it is true that the tighter the gov, the less rebellion could happen, as i mention to some ppl before, terrorist cannot survive in a country like china or a facist, socialist, or communist gov, but could survive in a democractic gov since terrorist needs the freedom and space to organise and meet.

but chinese gov are actually slowly turning democratic. so its actaully getting looser rather than tighter.

i dun mean that in my last post, my main point is, is that, predicting something 10 year later is not accurate since alot of experts have predicted things wrongly, e.g. the fall of the chinese gov after 1989.
February 15th, 2005  
Darcia
 
Well actualy...we do know that the Communist goverment in China will in fact fall after 1989....
February 15th, 2005  
gingerbeard
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcia
Well actualy...we do know that the Communist goverment in China will in fact fall after 1989....
but did it?
February 15th, 2005  
Vitaly
 
The point that was being made is that it is inevitable
February 15th, 2005  
gingerbeard
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vitaly
The point that was being made is that it is inevitable
yes, but what i mean is, predicting something so close could be wrong very badly. predicting something 10 years is even worse. US predicted china a long time ago wouldnt be that powerful at the present moment. just read some articles about china 10-7 years ago.

the experts predicted china's gov would fall very soon after 1989. which it hasnt fall after 16 years.