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Originally Posted by the_13th_redneck
I guess a Korean stationed just 11km from the North Korean coast should have a shout at this one as well then.
First of all, Japan cannot launch a pre-emptive strike. It is illegal and that is why their military is called the Self Defense Force. They are strictly a do not fire before fired upon force.
A Japanese strike against North Korea... physically I can see Japan doing it. They've got the technology and most probably also the training to do it. But let us also remind ourselves that North Korea has perhaps one of the densest anti-aircraft defense networks... maybe in the world.
But what would happen if Japan struck North Korea first? South Korean support? Forget it. Both Koreas have only one policy towards Japan and the Korean peninsular: Japan stays off, permanently. Even in the event of a full war between the two Koreas, South Korea would reject a direct Japanese intervention. Remember that South Korea and Japan's coast guards either faced off or nearly faced off because of an island dispute (Korean name: Dok-do, Japanese name: Takeshima). A few months ago there was rumor going on that South Korea and Japan could actually go to war. The idea of Japanese F-2s (that's what they call their F-16s) landing in a South Korean Air Force base after an airstrike deep inside North Korea is about as realistic as The Lord of The Rings.
In the event that Japan does attack North Korea, you could have a strange situation where South Korea actually HELPS defend North Korea. The Korea-Japan hatred is a lot deeper than most of you will ever understand.
Because of the current and the previous administration, the current South Korean sentiment towards North Korea is an unhealthy one where there is too much understanding and caring for the North Koreans. It's like these people don't understand that ultimately the missiles are for us.
If there is a war in Korea any time before June of next year, I'll be fighting in it. But if we're going to have one, we might as well have one while I'm here.
But no, I don't think Japan will launch a strike against North Korea. It'll risk going to war with South Korea.
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Good points, but...
(1) Japan is currently in the process of constitutional change. Like Germany, who were legally not allowed to station troops outside of the country, these domestic laws can be changed without too much difficulty. Germany adapted the Grundgesetz or Basic Law in 1995 (I think). In any case, the Japanese are following the Germans and have already stationed "soldiers" in other countries.
(2) We all know about Korean-Japanese hatred. But I cannot accept that this hatred could lead to open war. Korea and Japan are too dependent on global trade. Trade is an excellent controlling mechanism of state behaviour. In any case, UN resolutions would support a Japanese bombing campaign and S. Korea would be obligated to accept world opinion in the matter. An action in defence of N. Korea would be both bizarre and disastrous for the S. Korean economy and society.
Remember: It is N. Korea that is breaking with world opinion, developing a dangerous military capacity that is reactivating Japan's immense military-industrial power, and handing out military tech to the Muslim powers. N. Korea was to neutralized...and fast. I support Korean reunification via S. Korean annexation.