Well... I guess Bush's missile defense project wasn't such bullsh*t after all.
As far as Israel goes I think that assuming the Iranians do get a nuclear weapon(and according to a report in Israeli new papers today, its only a matter of them deciding to do so), I would say there are 2 options:
1) If Irans leadres will stand by their statments that Israel must be erased from the face of the earth, they will launch a nuclear attack on Israel. Israel will end its existance as a country but the immidiate respons will probably bring the end of the current Iranian regiem. Israel will react with a very powerfull nuclear attack that will kill millions of Iranis, and the world will do the rest to get rid of the current irani rulers.
2) The Iranians will use their nuclear weapons to give Israels enemies like Syria, Hezballah and Hammas a very strong back. Israel will have to give Iran a much more serious consideration.
So, its bad news either way, for my country at least
You forgot #3 which is the most likely...
#3. Iran will get the bomb, make some empty threats and do nothing. And the reason Iran will do nothing is that if Iran uses a Bomb against Israel without justification either directly or by proxy (a terror group) they would be immediately blown to smithereens by Israels not-so-secret nuclear arsenal, the USA, Europe, and maybe even Russia or the Arabs.
Both the Isrealis, the US and even countries like France have promised Iran's immediate destruction if it used Nukes. Russia has always been rather paranoid when it comes to their security, and the idea of a nuclear-armed Islamic country near their borders (especially so close to Georgia) would make them very nervous. They have invaded countries on less pretext than that.
Ahmadinejab is not stupid or suicidal. He knows quite well that nuking Israel would bring about his own destruction. He gains nothing by it. Despite all his fiery rhethoric Ahmedinejad is a politician, no politician would put their country on a course that would result in their countries annilhation.
I wouldnt worry about Syria. Since Bush is gone, Syria has been trying to rebuild the relationship it had with Clinton and espicially Bush Sr. From Syria's standpoint, since its oil production in in decline it needs the US help more than it needs Iran's. Israel and Syria are having peace talks as we speak this week.
I think 2 is extremely realistic, but thats me.
When you say 'led to believe, remember that Kruschev said that they would 'dance on your graves'.
Value of big deterrent ; not blinking in the face of aggression eventually put an end to allowing Russia to win WW111 without firing a shot. Sounds familiar don't it.
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