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I expect there will be vaccines for this one available shortly from the range of already existing medicines. |
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To get vaccines take times, and then beginning to produce it in quantities for the need. The flu virus, like the H1N1, H5N1, H5N5, H7N8 belongs to a different strain than the Corona virus that is related to the SARS and the MERS viruses The mortality rate of the COVID-19 is getting higher, in Italy it is now around 8% and that is much higher than what the Spanish Flu had. (between 3-5%, hard to know when we don't know how many were infected) The lessons from the Spanish flu is the method to handle outbreaks. Quarantines worked well in San Francisco and they were able to flatter the curve in St. Louis, mainly because they reacted prior the arrival of the disease. We have other challenges today when people can travel much faster now than in 1918-1920. |
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One of the things I suspect is driving the panic/anxiety is that we do not normally see influenza deaths reported by contrast every COVID-19 death has been reported. I am not suggesting we should underestimate the virus as it is a killed under certain conditions but as it stands there are about 250,000 cases world wide with 15000 deaths, smoking has killed more this year so far. |
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When a type A virus (type B and C, don't) mutate and getting a higher R0, the risk for a pandemic increases a lot. There is one type A, a bird flu virus (H5N1) that will be catastrophic when it mutates to a more lethal form. The mortality rate for this one is between 50-75%. For the moment it doesn't transmit easily between people This COVID-19 is a warning to us all. I have warned about pandemics for years (I'm working in the emergency management) We world population have increased a lot during the 20th century and it is growing still, that increases the risk for pandemics. Our ability to travel from one continent to another in a few hours increases the risk a lot. The health care systems in all countries are prepared for a rapid increase of patients. We don't have stock piles of essential tools, gloves, face masks, ventilators etc etc. I hope we learn from this for the next time it might be a more lethal pathogen than the corona virus. (source WHO, CDC, European CDC, and Swedish CDC) |
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It will be interesting to see the political consequences of COVID-19, especially what happens to the European Union. It might return to its original form and only being a trade union. EU failed during the refugee crisis and it failed badly now. Italy asked for help and didn't get any.
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No offense to Europe but outside of the northern European nation's (Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) Europe is a poorly managed economic mess so going back to the old Europe wouldn't help places like Italy, Spain and Greece.
Northern Europe would be far better off if it ditched the rest anyway. |
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