So we are postponing or closing a lot right now. What are you guys thinking about the outbreak/pandemic of the corona virus.

Originally Posted by I3BrigPvSk

So we are postponing or closing a lot right now. What are you guys thinking about the outbreak/pandemic of the corona virus.

I am a little torn on this one.
On one hand if you are less than 60, fit and healthy it seems to be little more than a head cold but if you underlying health issues it could be lethal.


I think in many respects the media has blown it out of all proportion as its mortality rate is barely any different to the common influenza strains we just dont report influenza deaths on a daily basis.

Originally Posted by MontyB

I am a little torn on this one.
On one hand if you are less than 60, fit and healthy it seems to be little more than a head cold but if you underlying health issues it could be lethal.


I think in many respects the media has blown it out of all proportion as its mortality rate is barely any different to the common influenza strains we just dont report influenza deaths on a daily basis.

The major concern I have about the COVID-19 is if it's mutate to a more lethal form and for every time a virus infects people the risk for mutations increases a lot.

Originally Posted by I3BrigPvSk

The major concern I have about the COVID-19 is if it's mutate to a more lethal form and for every time a virus infects people the risk for mutations increases a lot.

True, however, we are a long way past 1918 we have the potential to combat virus and bacteria in far shorter times.
I expect there will be vaccines for this one available shortly from the range of already existing medicines.

Originally Posted by MontyB

True, however, we are a long way past 1918 we have the potential to combat virus and bacteria in far shorter times.
I expect there will be vaccines for this one available shortly from the range of already existing medicines.

We are better now with supporting medical care than during the Spanish Flu. But lacking resources to treat a lot of people with serious pneumonia. The novel corona virus (novel means new) the H1N1 virus back then was also a novel virus. The difference is now the elderly with underlying health issues and those with health issues getting severely ill and dies. The Spanish Flu killed mostly people between 20-40.

To get vaccines take times, and then beginning to produce it in quantities for the need. The flu virus, like the H1N1, H5N1, H5N5, H7N8 belongs to a different strain than the Corona virus that is related to the SARS and the MERS viruses

The mortality rate of the COVID-19 is getting higher, in Italy it is now around 8% and that is much higher than what the Spanish Flu had. (between 3-5%, hard to know when we don't know how many were infected) The lessons from the Spanish flu is the method to handle outbreaks. Quarantines worked well in San Francisco and they were able to flatter the curve in St. Louis, mainly because they reacted prior the arrival of the disease. We have other challenges today when people can travel much faster now than in 1918-1920.

Originally Posted by I3BrigPvSk

We are better now with supporting medical care than during the Spanish Flu. But lacking resources to treat a lot of people with serious pneumonia. The novel corona virus (novel means new) the H1N1 virus back then was also a novel virus. The difference is now the elderly with underlying health issues and those with health issues getting severely ill and dies. The Spanish Flu killed mostly people between 20-40.

To get vaccines take times, and then beginning to produce it in quantities for the need. The flu virus, like the H1N1, H5N1, H5N5, H7N8 belongs to a different strain than the Corona virus that is related to the SARS and the MERS viruses

The mortality rate of the COVID-19 is getting higher, in Italy it is now around 8% and that is much higher than what the Spanish Flu had. (between 3-5%, hard to know when we don't know how many were infected) The lessons from the Spanish flu is the method to handle outbreaks. Quarantines worked well in San Francisco and they were able to flatter the curve in St. Louis, mainly because they reacted prior the arrival of the disease. We have other challenges today when people can travel much faster now than in 1918-1920.

What I would like to see is a side by side comparison between those who have died throughout the northern hemispheres winter of influenza vs those who have died of COVID-19.

One of the things I suspect is driving the panic/anxiety is that we do not normally see influenza deaths reported by contrast every COVID-19 death has been reported.

I am not suggesting we should underestimate the virus as it is a killed under certain conditions but as it stands there are about 250,000 cases world wide with 15000 deaths, smoking has killed more this year so far.

Originally Posted by MontyB

What I would like to see is a side by side comparison between those who have died throughout the northern hemispheres winter of influenza vs those who have died of COVID-19.

One of the things I suspect is driving the panic/anxiety is that we do not normally see influenza deaths reported by contrast every COVID-19 death has been reported.

I am not suggesting we should underestimate the virus as it is a killed under certain conditions but as it stands there are about 250,000 cases world wide with 15000 deaths, smoking has killed more this year so far.

The mortality rate for seasonal influenza varies from year to year due to the type A (H1N1, H3H2) viruses mutate slightly. The mortality rate is also suppressed by vaccinations. The mortality rate would be higher without the vaccination. The R0 (R-nought, the reproductive rate for the seasonal flu is about 1-2, while the same for the COVID-19 seems to 3-4. The outbreak of the COVID-19 is still going on and the mortality rate differs from country to country. The Italy and the Spain have a higher mortality rate than northern Europe, mostly due to how they live. Different generations live together in a way we don't anymore. However, the mortality rate is counted on all infected and all fatalities. If we count on age groups we get a much higher number for the elderly (65+) and barely measurably for those between 20-30 years old.

When a type A virus (type B and C, don't) mutate and getting a higher R0, the risk for a pandemic increases a lot. There is one type A, a bird flu virus (H5N1) that will be catastrophic when it mutates to a more lethal form. The mortality rate for this one is between 50-75%. For the moment it doesn't transmit easily between people

This COVID-19 is a warning to us all. I have warned about pandemics for years (I'm working in the emergency management) We world population have increased a lot during the 20th century and it is growing still, that increases the risk for pandemics. Our ability to travel from one continent to another in a few hours increases the risk a lot. The health care systems in all countries are prepared for a rapid increase of patients. We don't have stock piles of essential tools, gloves, face masks, ventilators etc etc. I hope we learn from this for the next time it might be a more lethal pathogen than the corona virus.

(source WHO, CDC, European CDC, and Swedish CDC)

Unless it happens again next year I expect we will not be prepared and have forgotten this year even happened.

It will be interesting to see the political consequences of COVID-19, especially what happens to the European Union. It might return to its original form and only being a trade union. EU failed during the refugee crisis and it failed badly now. Italy asked for help and didn't get any.

No offense to Europe but outside of the northern European nation's (Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) Europe is a poorly managed economic mess so going back to the old Europe wouldn't help places like Italy, Spain and Greece.

Northern Europe would be far better off if it ditched the rest anyway.