Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
New York Times
May 22, 2007
Pg. 1
By Carlotta Gall
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, May 21 — After a series of political blunders in the last two months, Pakistan’s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is being advised by his political supporters to make a dramatic change of course or risk losing power amid more chaos and bloodshed.
Members of the ruling party, the Pakistani Muslim League, who provide General Musharraf’s base of support in Parliament, say that nationwide protests since the suspension of the country’s chief justice in March, and violent clashes that left 42 people dead in Karachi on May 12, have cast a pall over his leadership.
They are encouraging General Musharraf to strike a compromise with the Supreme Court justice, who did not shy away from challenges to the government and whose removal has been protested as a threat to the judiciary.
Some party members have also recommended that General Musharraf open the elections for the presidency, which are supposed to take place this year, to his exiled political opponents and that he make sure that the polling is free and fair.
The alternative to compromise, party members warn, is a hard-line military solution that leads only to greater confrontation.
For the moment, General Musharraf seems to be sticking to his planned course to maintain power rather than seek conciliation with either the chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, or his political rivals, supporters and opponents say.
Last week the president repeated his insistence that there would be no deal to bring home either of the opposition leaders, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, who left the country under a cloud of corruption allegations.
“About their return before elections, no, there is nobody returning before elections,” he told the private, Karachi-based Aaj Television in an interview on Friday.
But a number of party members say they intend to push their case. Opposition members and some from the ruling party warn that not only is General Musharraf’s future at stake, but also the stability of the country, which sits on the front line of American efforts to combat Taliban insurgents and Al Qaeda.
“There are two ways he can go: retreat to the bunker or stop, pause, review, reflect and reverse course,” said one ruling party member who did not want to be identified. “He has to show leadership, magnanimity, and be loyal to the broader objective. The important thing is Pakistan’s future.”
Not least, the ruling party members, who also face elections this year, have become concerned for their own political fortunes. They acknowledged that both the president and the party have suffered from the public reaction to the chief justice’s removal, which many concede the president did not anticipate.
The president’s opponents and supporters alike now agree that the events of the past few months present the greatest domestic challenge to General Musharraf since he seized power in a bloodless coup in October 1999.
“The government’s interest is in lowering the temperature, defusing tension and keeping loyal to the objective of a transparent system that leads to the democratic transfer of power,” said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, general secretary of the ruling party.
“It’s the last thing you would want in an election year,” he added. “One thing after another is piling up, and most of these things are negative.”
Asked about General Musharraf’s growing troubles, a senior State Department official reiterated American support for the Pakistani president. “Fundamentally the direction of the country is right,” the official said. “There is more pressure on extremists. They are moving in the direction of elections.” The case of the Supreme Court justice, he added, “needs to be handled as a judicial matter, and resolved in that way.”
Other American officials say that the United States has treated General Musharraf with tremendous care in the past year, saying little about democracy, and taking no position on such questions as whether he should give up his military post and run as a civilian, a source of deep controversy here.
“There is such concern about what a post-Musharraf Pakistan would look like,” said one administration official, “that the overwhelming reflex is to do nothing that destabilizes the situation.”
Analysts warn that another misstep by the president, or a resort to more autocratic measures, such as declaring a state of emergency, could itself be disastrous and risk even more violence. Still, many fear the president will be tempted to dig in.
In the interview on Friday, General Musharraf voiced strong support for his coalition partner, Muttahida Quami Movement, a Karachi-based party that has a “thuggish reputation,” as the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a recent paper.
The remark was taken as a sign that General Musharraf intends to continue with the status quo, however unpalatable, but also that he will stir up ethnic hostilities if necessary. The party’s supporters, many of whom are immigrants, were blamed for much of the violence in Karachi.
In recent weeks the news media have been rife with speculation that the political situation had reached a point where General Musharraf was considering a deal that would allow Ms. Bhutto, who divides her time between London and Dubai, to return to political life in Pakistan and him to continue as a civilian president.
For her part, Ms. Bhutto has made it clear that there is no question of a power-sharing deal with the general, particularly after the Karachi violence, which left 15 of her party workers dead, along with 22 members of another opposition party, the Awami National Party.
The president’s weakened standing will only make it more challenging for him to negotiate tricky political obstacles this year, not least his own election. Under Pakistan’s system, the president is elected by the four provincial assemblies as well as Parliament. General Musharraf’s term expires before that of the current Parliament, which then also faces elections. No dates have been set for either vote.
Opposition parties have protested that reelection by the departing Parliament, where the president and his coalition allies hold a majority, would be unconstitutional. Even the president’s supporters admit that such an election would look dubious after the recent upheavals and, in the current political climate, may not even succeed.
But General Musharraf confirmed in the interview on Friday that that was his plan. He also indicated that he would try to bolster his standing by seeking some kind of extra mandate from a newly elected Parliament.
He suggested he would do the same regarding the constitutional amendment that has allowed him to hold both the positions of president and chief of army staff. The amendment expires at the end of the year.
The legality of holding both posts, as well as whether General Musharraf could be elected by the departin Parliament, are being challenged on constitutional grounds, and were the backdrop to the suspension of the chief justice.
Under Mr. Chaudhry’s leadership, the Supreme Court was supposed to hear challenges to both issues, and his public positions seemed to indicate that he was not sympathetic to the government’s view.
In the interview, the president said he would not violate the Constitution, but if a two-thirds majority in the current Parliament extended his right to hold both positions, he could continue to do so.
Still there have been some unsettling signals that Pakistan’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies are ready to enforce that outcome through intimidation.
Opposition parties have accused the government of being behind the killing last week of the Supreme Court registrar, Syed Hammad Raza, 37, who worked as the chief of staff to Mr. Chaudhry. On Friday, Shakil Turabi, a news agency editor, was badly beaten in Islamabad after writing an article about the chief justice.
“I fear there may be other strong arms, strong-minded people, in the decision-making process, and he’s done very badly if he has accepted their advice,” said one ruling party legislator, who did not want to be identified expressing such sentiments, referring to Mr. Musharraf.
The Supreme Court is currently considering a challenge by Mr. Chaudhry to his dismissal, and the court’s decision should be accepted, whatever the outcome, said Mr. Hussain, of the ruling party.
Others are saying General Musharraf should give up the post of army chief and contest elections as a civilian leader, or at least allow all parties and personalities to participate in clean, transparent elections.
“Musharraf has been a good ruler for Pakistan,” said one longtime friend and supporter, Minoo P. Bhandara, a ruling party member of the national assembly. “He brought in moderation, built bridges with India and Kashmir. On the economy he has done well. He has the credentials to go on for another five years.”
Yet after seven and a half years in power, President Musharraf now suffers from the “drag of incumbency,” Mr. Bhandara said, and he needs a strong new mandate.
David E. Sanger contributed reporting from Washington.
May 22, 2007
Pg. 1
By Carlotta Gall
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, May 21 — After a series of political blunders in the last two months, Pakistan’s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is being advised by his political supporters to make a dramatic change of course or risk losing power amid more chaos and bloodshed.
Members of the ruling party, the Pakistani Muslim League, who provide General Musharraf’s base of support in Parliament, say that nationwide protests since the suspension of the country’s chief justice in March, and violent clashes that left 42 people dead in Karachi on May 12, have cast a pall over his leadership.
They are encouraging General Musharraf to strike a compromise with the Supreme Court justice, who did not shy away from challenges to the government and whose removal has been protested as a threat to the judiciary.
Some party members have also recommended that General Musharraf open the elections for the presidency, which are supposed to take place this year, to his exiled political opponents and that he make sure that the polling is free and fair.
The alternative to compromise, party members warn, is a hard-line military solution that leads only to greater confrontation.
For the moment, General Musharraf seems to be sticking to his planned course to maintain power rather than seek conciliation with either the chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, or his political rivals, supporters and opponents say.
Last week the president repeated his insistence that there would be no deal to bring home either of the opposition leaders, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, who left the country under a cloud of corruption allegations.
“About their return before elections, no, there is nobody returning before elections,” he told the private, Karachi-based Aaj Television in an interview on Friday.
But a number of party members say they intend to push their case. Opposition members and some from the ruling party warn that not only is General Musharraf’s future at stake, but also the stability of the country, which sits on the front line of American efforts to combat Taliban insurgents and Al Qaeda.
“There are two ways he can go: retreat to the bunker or stop, pause, review, reflect and reverse course,” said one ruling party member who did not want to be identified. “He has to show leadership, magnanimity, and be loyal to the broader objective. The important thing is Pakistan’s future.”
Not least, the ruling party members, who also face elections this year, have become concerned for their own political fortunes. They acknowledged that both the president and the party have suffered from the public reaction to the chief justice’s removal, which many concede the president did not anticipate.
The president’s opponents and supporters alike now agree that the events of the past few months present the greatest domestic challenge to General Musharraf since he seized power in a bloodless coup in October 1999.
“The government’s interest is in lowering the temperature, defusing tension and keeping loyal to the objective of a transparent system that leads to the democratic transfer of power,” said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, general secretary of the ruling party.
“It’s the last thing you would want in an election year,” he added. “One thing after another is piling up, and most of these things are negative.”
Asked about General Musharraf’s growing troubles, a senior State Department official reiterated American support for the Pakistani president. “Fundamentally the direction of the country is right,” the official said. “There is more pressure on extremists. They are moving in the direction of elections.” The case of the Supreme Court justice, he added, “needs to be handled as a judicial matter, and resolved in that way.”
Other American officials say that the United States has treated General Musharraf with tremendous care in the past year, saying little about democracy, and taking no position on such questions as whether he should give up his military post and run as a civilian, a source of deep controversy here.
“There is such concern about what a post-Musharraf Pakistan would look like,” said one administration official, “that the overwhelming reflex is to do nothing that destabilizes the situation.”
Analysts warn that another misstep by the president, or a resort to more autocratic measures, such as declaring a state of emergency, could itself be disastrous and risk even more violence. Still, many fear the president will be tempted to dig in.
In the interview on Friday, General Musharraf voiced strong support for his coalition partner, Muttahida Quami Movement, a Karachi-based party that has a “thuggish reputation,” as the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a recent paper.
The remark was taken as a sign that General Musharraf intends to continue with the status quo, however unpalatable, but also that he will stir up ethnic hostilities if necessary. The party’s supporters, many of whom are immigrants, were blamed for much of the violence in Karachi.
In recent weeks the news media have been rife with speculation that the political situation had reached a point where General Musharraf was considering a deal that would allow Ms. Bhutto, who divides her time between London and Dubai, to return to political life in Pakistan and him to continue as a civilian president.
For her part, Ms. Bhutto has made it clear that there is no question of a power-sharing deal with the general, particularly after the Karachi violence, which left 15 of her party workers dead, along with 22 members of another opposition party, the Awami National Party.
The president’s weakened standing will only make it more challenging for him to negotiate tricky political obstacles this year, not least his own election. Under Pakistan’s system, the president is elected by the four provincial assemblies as well as Parliament. General Musharraf’s term expires before that of the current Parliament, which then also faces elections. No dates have been set for either vote.
Opposition parties have protested that reelection by the departing Parliament, where the president and his coalition allies hold a majority, would be unconstitutional. Even the president’s supporters admit that such an election would look dubious after the recent upheavals and, in the current political climate, may not even succeed.
But General Musharraf confirmed in the interview on Friday that that was his plan. He also indicated that he would try to bolster his standing by seeking some kind of extra mandate from a newly elected Parliament.
He suggested he would do the same regarding the constitutional amendment that has allowed him to hold both the positions of president and chief of army staff. The amendment expires at the end of the year.
The legality of holding both posts, as well as whether General Musharraf could be elected by the departin Parliament, are being challenged on constitutional grounds, and were the backdrop to the suspension of the chief justice.
Under Mr. Chaudhry’s leadership, the Supreme Court was supposed to hear challenges to both issues, and his public positions seemed to indicate that he was not sympathetic to the government’s view.
In the interview, the president said he would not violate the Constitution, but if a two-thirds majority in the current Parliament extended his right to hold both positions, he could continue to do so.
Still there have been some unsettling signals that Pakistan’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies are ready to enforce that outcome through intimidation.
Opposition parties have accused the government of being behind the killing last week of the Supreme Court registrar, Syed Hammad Raza, 37, who worked as the chief of staff to Mr. Chaudhry. On Friday, Shakil Turabi, a news agency editor, was badly beaten in Islamabad after writing an article about the chief justice.
“I fear there may be other strong arms, strong-minded people, in the decision-making process, and he’s done very badly if he has accepted their advice,” said one ruling party legislator, who did not want to be identified expressing such sentiments, referring to Mr. Musharraf.
The Supreme Court is currently considering a challenge by Mr. Chaudhry to his dismissal, and the court’s decision should be accepted, whatever the outcome, said Mr. Hussain, of the ruling party.
Others are saying General Musharraf should give up the post of army chief and contest elections as a civilian leader, or at least allow all parties and personalities to participate in clean, transparent elections.
“Musharraf has been a good ruler for Pakistan,” said one longtime friend and supporter, Minoo P. Bhandara, a ruling party member of the national assembly. “He brought in moderation, built bridges with India and Kashmir. On the economy he has done well. He has the credentials to go on for another five years.”
Yet after seven and a half years in power, President Musharraf now suffers from the “drag of incumbency,” Mr. Bhandara said, and he needs a strong new mandate.
David E. Sanger contributed reporting from Washington.