Seems statistically the Luftwaffe could have won




 
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4 Weeks Ago  
MontyB
 
 

Topic: Seems statistically the Luftwaffe could have won


the Battle of Britain.


The reality is that statistics really dont mean a lot after the event but I found this interesting none the less.



https://www.popularmechanics.com/sci...in-math-model/
4 Weeks Ago  
George
 
Switching to the cities has always been pointed out as a massive error. Now throw in if the General who was pushing 4 engine bombers hadn't been killed in a crash a few years earlier and heavy bombers had been available...
4 Weeks Ago  
MontyB
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by George
Switching to the cities has always been pointed out as a massive error. Now throw in if the General who was pushing 4 engine bombers hadn't been killed in a crash a few years earlier and heavy bombers had been available...
I assume you mean Walther Wever, died about 3 years before the war began.

I really don't buy the idea that strategic bombers would have made the difference, the problem for the Luftwaffe over Britain was not that it couldn't destroy buildings, airfields or enemy aircraft with the aircraft it had it was that it was operating over hostile territory with next to no chance of recovering downed pilots unlike allied pilots who were downed over occupied territories and a generally sympathetic populace, therefore it was always going to be a war of attrition that it couldn't win given that Britain had the Commonwealth to provide replacement aircrew.

Also given the limitations on the range of Luftwaffe aircraft the British could have afforded to withdraw from Southern England and still maintain air superiority from airfields further north combine that with the overwhelming disparity between the Royal Navy and Kriegsmarine Britain was never under any threat.

Germany's better plan would have been to focus on Uboats to take the war to Britain and send a full strength Air Force against Russia.
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4 Weeks Ago  
George
 
"the problem for the Luftwaffe over Britain was not that it couldn't destroy buildings, airfields or enemy aircraft with the aircraft it had it was that it was operating over hostile territory with next to no chance of recovering downed pilots unlike allied pilots who were downed over occupied territories and a generally sympathetic populace. certainly a problem, but if they had something like the B-17 most everything would have been in reach. yes, no amphib capability to do an invasion. Like the US German torpedoes had lots of fuse failures that reduced effectiveness early on. 1 attack might have killed Sir Winston before becoming P.M.
3 Weeks Ago  
MontyB
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by George
but if they had something like the B-17 most everything would have been in reach. yes, no amphib capability to do an invasion. Like the US German torpedoes had lots of fuse failures that reduced effectiveness early on. 1 attack might have killed Sir Winston before becoming P.M.

But the two of those points are linked, there is little to no point in bombing something if there was no chance you would ever invade it.


Had Germany not bombed British cities would the RAF have ever bombed German cities, it was necessity that drove the development of the Mosquito and Lancaster etc. without that necessity they may never have needed to be built and German cities free of bombing would have freed up a lot of resources to the Eastern Front.


I remain convinced that while the RAF may get the credit for winning the battle of Britian it wasnt RAF air superiority that prevented an invasion as the Luftwaffe could have maintained air superiority over any invasion lanes but rather the Royal Navy which ensured there wouldnt be an invasion.
3 Weeks Ago  
George
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB
y that prevented an invasion as the Luftwaffe could have maintained air superiority over any invasion lanes but rather the Royal Navy which ensured there wouldnt be an invasion.
Correct.
3 Weeks Ago  
BritinAfrica
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB
I remain convinced that while the RAF may get the credit for winning the battle of Britian it wasnt RAF air superiority that prevented an invasion as the Luftwaffe could have maintained air superiority over any invasion lanes but rather the Royal Navy which ensured there wouldnt be an invasion.
Correct, but what is forgotten, up to the Battle of Britain, Britain suffered loss after loss, Dunkirk, Norway etc, winning the Battle gave the British people hope. Up to that point the Luftwaffe had it all their own way, it put the Luftwaffe on notice that the RAF wasn't a push over they thought it would be. It was a brilliant propaganda victory.

Sadly too many pilots were lost, some on their first sortie, some as young as 19.

Hugh Dowding and Keith Parks fought the Battle exactly as it should have been fought, despite Douglas Baders criticism and his so called big wing theory, which by the way, did not work. Despite this, Hugh Dowding was sacked being replaced by Leigh Mallory.

Keith Parks took over the defence of Malta, whom again, fought the battle brilliantly.
3 Weeks Ago  
MontyB
 
 
I am certainly not arguing that the British fought the BoB incorrectly but I do believe it was a battle that the Germans did not need to fight as they could not have crossed the channel even with air superiority.


I think the sadest part regarding Keith Parks is how few New Zealanders even know who he was, he has largely been forgotten in this country.
3 Weeks Ago  
BritinAfrica
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB
I am certainly not arguing that the British fought the BoB incorrectly but I do believe it was a battle that the Germans did not need to fight as they could not have crossed the channel even with air superiority.


I think the sadest part regarding Keith Parks is how few New Zealanders even know who he was, he has largely been forgotten in this country.
In my opinion the Battle of Britain was fought by the Germans because of Herman Goering's guarantees that the Luftwaffe could defeat the RAF in a matter of weeks. As we all know, the Luftwaffe had extremely experienced and well trained pilots and twice the number of fighters compared to the RAF, while RAF fighter pilots in the beginning were no where near as capable, but lessons were learned and put into effect. Of course RADAR was a huge help.

Keith Parks is considered a hero in the UK, a brilliant tactician, Bader and Leigh Mallory don't even come close.

Perhaps you should start some sort of campaign in the local press putting Keith Parks in the eye of the public with his exploits
3 Weeks Ago  
MontyB
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BritinAfrica
In my opinion the Battle of Britain was fought by the Germans because of Herman Goering's guarantees that the Luftwaffe could defeat the RAF in a matter of weeks. As we all know, the Luftwaffe had extremely experienced and well trained pilots and twice the number of fighters compared to the RAF, while RAF fighter pilots in the beginning were no where near as capable, but lessons were learned and put into effect. Of course RADAR was a huge help.

Keith Parks is considered a hero in the UK, a brilliant tactician, Bader and Leigh Mallory don't even come close.

Perhaps you should start some sort of campaign in the local press putting Keith Parks in the eye of the public with his exploits
I am going to argue a point here.
I think the idea of an experienced Luftwaffe is more allied propaganda than fact, a lot of people use the condor legion as the training ground for the Luftwaffe but it comprised less than 150 aircraft and included transport aircraft.
Basically, the Luftwaffe had some experienced pilots and learned a few lessons in Spain (not enough to ditch the Ju-87 though) but that was about it.

I would also argue that had the Luftwaffe continued to attack airfields and radar installations it probably would have won.

I still think that had they focused on coastal airfields and shipping in conjunction with the submarine fleet they could have defeated Britain with only a fraction of the losses.
 


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