Reluctance to instigate no fly zone over Libya

perseus

perseus

Active member
In view that the US, NATO and in particular the UN are dragging their heels on this, what other options are available to help the anti-Gadaffi forces defend themselves against air attack?

I assume there are illegal arms dealers touting to both sides. Perhaps something above board could be sold, such as a decent modern hand held ground to air AA missile system? Is there anything suitable which is easy to use and could be shipped out quickly?

However, would Western forces be wise to sell a state of the art defence system to an unknown political force? Would a decent AA system be necessary to cope with the Libyan air force?

Breaking news

The Libyan oil terminal town of Brega has been targeted with air strikes, sources in the town said. The strikes come a day after clashes between rebels and government troops in the town in which 14 people died.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12632482
 
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I'm confused as to the whole intervention thing to be perfectly honest... one news report I hear will have interviews from Libyans on the ground begging for intervention, and the next will have other Libyans from the same patch of ground effectively saying "Sod Off, we don't want the West's help, we'll do this by ourselves!"

... Kinda don't know what to think. I just hope however it pans out, the people get what they want and need with a minimal casualty count...
 
This schizophrenic view is understandable since they want Gadaffi's regime removed yet don't want the West to take over the country and oilfields.
 
perseus said:
In view that the US, NATO and in particular the UN are dragging their heels on this, what other options are available to help the anti-Gadaffi forces defend themselves against air attack?

I assume there are illegal arms dealers touting to both sides. Perhaps something above board could be sold, such as a decent modern hand held ground to air AA missile system? Is there anything suitable which is easy to use and could be shipped out quickly?

However, would Western forces be wise to sell a state of the art defence system to an unknown political force? Would a decent AA system be necessary to cope with the Libyan air force?

Breaking news

The Libyan oil terminal town of Brega has been targeted with air strikes, sources in the town said. The strikes come a day after clashes between rebels and government troops in the town in which 14 people died.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12632482
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Eliminate the pilots and sabotaging airplanes are also a possibility.
 
I understand that an official 'no fly zone' wouldn't have the authority to bring down helicopters, how come, are these designated as army or ground forces?
 
Depend if they are flying or not... :D

But the main problem is that it's not easy to clearly identify Khaddafi's troops and the insurgents.
 
perseus said:
I understand that an official 'no fly zone' wouldn't have the authority to bring down helicopters, how come, are these designated as army or ground forces?
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Doesn't make much sense. The US made the same blunder with the no-fly zone in Iraq at the end of Desert Storm. The Iraqis couldn't believe they could still use their helicopters to attack the Marsh Arabs.

I guess it's easier to identify a fast-mover as hostile and not on a medevac task than it is a helicopter.
 
Botak said:
I'm confused as to the whole intervention thing to be perfectly honest... one news report I hear will have interviews from Libyans on the ground begging for intervention, and the next will have other Libyans from the same patch of ground effectively saying "Sod Off, we don't want the West's help, we'll do this by ourselves!"

... Kinda don't know what to think. I just hope however it pans out, the people get what they want and need with a minimal casualty count...
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It's the same as any situation, especially where there may be something to gain. Ten people, ten opinions.
 
Seehund said:
Eliminate the pilots and sabotaging airplanes are also a possibility.
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And many more "softer" committments that could swing balance:

- Raise and share INTEL (tapping into ground-air comms should not be a prob for US or NATO, informing the "rebels" of incoming is a political decision)

- Disrupt command networks, cyber way or other, of the Ghadafi crew

- Covertly and deniably insert SOF with the goal to take out Ghadafi commanders to disrupt CoC, C3 and C4

- Covertly arm rebels (MANPADS?)

- Covertly insert "instructors" (If I understand right the main problem of the rebel forces is that they dont listen to their ex-Ghadafi commanders but venture in suicidal maneuvers)

etc.

Rattler
 
Too much Western involvment can stop the rebellion in its tracks...

It's a popular revolt, and the people in this area of the world have terribly bad relations with the Western foreign policies...

You want to help Khadafi? Ask Israel to recognize the effort against him and take political/military/economic risks supporting the rebels... And you will rise doubts on the legitimacy of the revolt and spawn tons of conspiracy theories.

Bernard Henry Levy is in Libya right now as a journalist + extra (dont know what exactly) and there is already a lot of noise in the Arab forums about that.

I believe that it's best to let the Arabs deal with their problems, whatever the cost in destruction and human lives... Maybe intervene if we see that they may fail completely. But as long as the victory is certain for the rebels, we shouldnt get involved too much.
 
ermm...

ATM it looks suspiciouly as if victory was certain for the coronel.

Rebels comments claiming they are "regrouping for counter attack" is a standard mil euphemism for "we got slaughtered, situation hopeless".

Rattler

LeMask said:
Too much Western involvment can stop the rebellion in its tracks... - snip- ...as long as the victory is certain for the rebels, we shouldnt get involved too much.
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A rather surprising view from US officials, according to them it appears Gadaffi is now likely to remain in power (presumably if the West does nothing).

US spy chief says Gadaffi forces likely to prevail

Thursday, 10 March 2011 23:13

WASHINGTON--Libyan rebels have lost momentum and are not likely to dislodge Muammar Gaddafi from power, top U.S. intelligence officials said on Thursday as Washington backed further away from any military action.

The White House said the United States would send civilian disaster relief teams to rebel-held eastern Libya to help with humanitarian efforts but stressed they would not be accompanied by military or security personnel.

As Washington, NATO and the United Nations search for the best way forward, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she would meet members of Libya's opposition groups but warned of "a situation whose consequences are unforeseeable" if the United States were to act on its own.
 
Gaddafi loyalists mount onslaught

Forces loyal to Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi have made major gains against anti-government rebels, pushing them from two key areas.

Western journalists in the city of Zawiya, west of Tripoli, confirmed the Gaddafi regime's claims that the city had fallen after days of bombardment.
And rebels have fled from the oil port of Ras Lanuf in the east.

EU leaders are due to discuss the crisis, with the UK and France leading calls for a strong response
 
So what is happening here, are the rebels attempting to provoke Western forces into attacking Gadaffi, by fake attacks or is Gadaffi really attacking Bengazi? Tanks reported in the streets, but whose tanks?

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Surely a self contained force such as an aircraft carrier should have been moved there, rather than all these Europeans moving to a variety of airbases the nearest which is Malta.
 
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Japan took priority over libya. The 7th fleet is pretty much out of action because of Japan. I am guessing they don't see Libya as priority enough to take another fleet out of action. I would imagine NATO has people on the ground as we speak sizing up the situiation to dictate if force should be taken.

If the intel verifies the proper facts then the proper forces will be mobilized.
 
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Seems that Western air forces (only French so far) are really instigating a no attack zone, where they hitting any of Gaddafi's ground forces that are within range of a built up area. This is a rather liberal interpretation of the UN agreement to protect civilians, but I suppose it is necessary in view that Gadaffi appears to have infringed the proclaimed ceasefire.

Where does it go from her though, do they become the rebel air force? What happens if the rebels attack civilians loyal to Gadaffi? What happens if they, like the Mujahideen, splinter into a Taliban type group? This is going to get very complicated.

I think the US has taken a back seat deliberately. Obama thinks the US is unpopular enough with the Arabs after Afghanistan and Iraq and doesn't want to appear as a hawk. Sarkozy is in political trouble, so it isn't surprising he is eager to kick some ass to impress the electorate.
 
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I think that there is a lot of fence sitting going on.

People want to see which way the the wind is blowing before flying their kite. No one wants to risk unnecessarily upsetting an oil rich despot.
 
The U.S. Navy fires the first U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles against Libyan leader's Muammar al-Qaddafi's air defenses Saturday, a military source tells Fox News.

The U.S. military strikes clear the way for European and other planes to enforce a no-fly zone designed to ground Qaddafi's air force and cripple his ability to inflict further violence on rebels, U.S. officials said.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/19/france-fires-libyan-military-vehicle/
 
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