PM Emerges Stronger From Basra

Team Infidel

Forum Spin Doctor
USA Today
June 11, 2008
Pg. 8
Al-Maliki refused to back down in struggle against Shiite militias
By Charles Levinson, USA Today
BASRA, Iraq — When Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was nearly killed in a mortar attack this spring during an offensive against Shiite militias in Basra, his advisers urged him to halt the operation and go back to Baghdad.
Instead, al-Maliki doubled down, called in thousands of reinforcements and returned to Baghdad victorious.
In the two months since, al-Maliki has begun to shed his image among Iraqis as a weak leader who governs only on behalf of his fellow Shiites. His emergence as a relatively strong leader could help him crack down on militias elsewhere, appeal to disaffected Sunnis and ensure the future of a pro-U.S. government in Iraq.
"This is the beginning of a political shift," says Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman, who has strongly criticized the prime minister in the past. "Al-Maliki is in a very strong position now.
"Because he went after … Shiite militias, Sunnis no longer see al-Maliki as sectarian and are to a degree satisfied with him now."
Ibrahim Sumydai, a Sunni political analyst and former Iraqi intelligence officer, says, "He has become a hero within his party and much of the Iraqi population."
It is a notable transformation for a leader who had rarely taken bold action during his two previous years at the helm of Iraq's government.
President Bush had expressed frustration over al-Maliki's inability to broker political deals, such as an oil law, in the parliament. A year ago, several Iraqi legislators from Shiite and Sunni parties said they had lost confidence in al-Maliki as a leader, and Othman was among a few voices calling for him to step down.
Those close to al-Maliki say the second day of the Iraqi military's offensive in Basra may have been a turning point for the prime minister.
Al-Maliki had traveled to Basra to personally supervise the operation from a Saddam Hussein-era palace in the heart of the city. The few thousand soldiers attempting to retake the city from Shiite militias were rapidly losing ground, according to Haydar al-Abadi, a senior lawmaker from al-Maliki's Dawa Party.
An Iraqi commander and one of al-Maliki's senior military advisers were both killed as militants closed in. A mortar shell fell close to al-Maliki inside the palace compound, according to Sadiq al-Riqabi, a top aide to the prime minister.
Ismael Zayer, editor-in-chief of the independent Al-Sabbah newspaper who has close ties to al-Maliki's inner circle, said al-Maliki's scrape with death was a "blow to his personal dignity."
"He was on the brink of being defeated completely, and he suddenly realized his entire political future was at stake. If he was defeated in Basra, he would be finished," Zayer said.
The outlook was so bleak that the U.S. military sent al-Maliki an intelligence report warning he was in grave danger if he remained in Basra, according to al-Abadi, who says he saw the report. Joseph Yoswa, a U.S. military spokesman, said the military does not comment on the content of intelligence reports.
Top Iraqi advisers also urged al-Maliki to leave, al-Abadi said.
Instead, al-Maliki ordered 20,000 Iraqi servicemembers to join the fight, including the Iraqi army's First Division, a largely Sunni unit recruited from Anbar province. Their strong showing, along with the intervention of U.S. and British forces, helped turn the battle in Basra in al-Maliki's favor.
In the following weeks, al-Maliki built on the success of the Basra operation by ordering troops into Sadr City. The vast Baghdad neighborhood had long been off-limits to government forces. It was controlled instead by militias loyal to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
"Al-Maliki had a whole new confidence to him," said al-Abadi, the lawmaker.
Al-Maliki is attempting to translate his military success into political gain. He has distanced himself from one of his main coalition partners — the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI) — by pushing a law that would ban the use of religious symbols in provincial elections this fall.
ISCI has made symbols of beloved clerics and mosques one of its trademarks in past election victories. The Shiite party has become unpopular among Iraqi voters who see it as overly sectarian, says Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq analyst with the International Crisis Group.
Al-Maliki is courting the Iraqi Islamic Party, a powerful Sunni group, which could broaden the appeal of his coalition among Sunnis in the elections this fall.
"We have finally started believing that al-Maliki treats both Sunnis and Shiites equally," says Selim Jabbar, 31, a Sunni schoolteacher in Baghdad.
 
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