Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Media: New York Times
Byline:NINA KAMP, MICHAEL O'HANLON and AMY UNIKEWICZ
Date: October 1, 2006
FACTS have a way of shrinking under the weight of politics. The fierce
partisan debate last week set off by the new National Intelligence Estimate
on the struggle against terrorism was a case in point. Similarly, our own
tracking statistics from the last four years in Iraq will provide ammunition
for both supporters and critics of the war. But one fact seems clear: this
year's violence was the worst since liberation, and probably the worst over
all since 1991.
American troop fatalities, thankfully, declined somewhat this summer, but it
is hard to view that as a positive development since much of the modest
improvement was due to the reduced rate of American patrols (down from a
daily average of 400 to, in the last year, 100 a year). When American forces
do venture out of their base, they are in as much peril as ever. Similarly,
the drastic falloff in kidnappings of foreigners primarily reflects the fact
that foreigners now rarely leave the Green Zone in Baghdad. Iraqis continue
to be kidnapped in large numbers.
While the economy is far from healthy, it has shown some improvement. Oil
production has returned, at least for the moment, to levels seen at the end
of Saddam Hussein's rule, and electricity production is at higher levels,
especially outside of Baghdad. School enrollment continues to increase;
childhood vaccination rates are now respectable; Iraq's media continue to
flourish.
However, unemployment remains at 30 percent or more, as coalition and Iraqi
authorities continue to resist the notion of adopting a Roosevelt-style
public works program to mitigate joblessness. Inflation is up; private
sector investment remains weak because of the security environment; gross
domestic product growth has been modest and will probably slow because of
the decline in global oil prices. Fuel supplies are stagnant in the face of
rising demand.
Public optimism has rebounded a bit since spring, especially among Shiites
and Kurds. But Iraqi optimism about the future is still not where it once
was. Nor is it clear on what that optimism is based. The Iraqi government
continues to flounder in attempts to rein in militias, ensure fair
distribution of the nation's future oil revenue, rehabilitate former
low-level Baathists into public life and rebuild the economy. On balance,
the data suggest that while Iraq is not lost, the United States and its
allies there are hardly winning either.
Nina Kamp is a senior research assistant at the Brookings Institution in
Washington. Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at Brookings and the
co-author of "Hard Power." Amy Unikewicz is a graphic designer in South
Norwalk, Conn. Andrew Kamons of Brookings assisted in researching the chart.
Byline:NINA KAMP, MICHAEL O'HANLON and AMY UNIKEWICZ
Date: October 1, 2006
FACTS have a way of shrinking under the weight of politics. The fierce
partisan debate last week set off by the new National Intelligence Estimate
on the struggle against terrorism was a case in point. Similarly, our own
tracking statistics from the last four years in Iraq will provide ammunition
for both supporters and critics of the war. But one fact seems clear: this
year's violence was the worst since liberation, and probably the worst over
all since 1991.
American troop fatalities, thankfully, declined somewhat this summer, but it
is hard to view that as a positive development since much of the modest
improvement was due to the reduced rate of American patrols (down from a
daily average of 400 to, in the last year, 100 a year). When American forces
do venture out of their base, they are in as much peril as ever. Similarly,
the drastic falloff in kidnappings of foreigners primarily reflects the fact
that foreigners now rarely leave the Green Zone in Baghdad. Iraqis continue
to be kidnapped in large numbers.
While the economy is far from healthy, it has shown some improvement. Oil
production has returned, at least for the moment, to levels seen at the end
of Saddam Hussein's rule, and electricity production is at higher levels,
especially outside of Baghdad. School enrollment continues to increase;
childhood vaccination rates are now respectable; Iraq's media continue to
flourish.
However, unemployment remains at 30 percent or more, as coalition and Iraqi
authorities continue to resist the notion of adopting a Roosevelt-style
public works program to mitigate joblessness. Inflation is up; private
sector investment remains weak because of the security environment; gross
domestic product growth has been modest and will probably slow because of
the decline in global oil prices. Fuel supplies are stagnant in the face of
rising demand.
Public optimism has rebounded a bit since spring, especially among Shiites
and Kurds. But Iraqi optimism about the future is still not where it once
was. Nor is it clear on what that optimism is based. The Iraqi government
continues to flounder in attempts to rein in militias, ensure fair
distribution of the nation's future oil revenue, rehabilitate former
low-level Baathists into public life and rebuild the economy. On balance,
the data suggest that while Iraq is not lost, the United States and its
allies there are hardly winning either.
Nina Kamp is a senior research assistant at the Brookings Institution in
Washington. Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at Brookings and the
co-author of "Hard Power." Amy Unikewicz is a graphic designer in South
Norwalk, Conn. Andrew Kamons of Brookings assisted in researching the chart.