Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
New York Times
November 6, 2007
Pg. 1
News Analysis
By David Rohde
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Nov. 5 — While Gen. Pervez Musharraf justified his emergency rule decree as helping him combat terrorism, it could end up weakening his ability to rein in the Qaeda militants who ultimately threaten American interests.
In fact, Western diplomats here said, each step the president takes to strengthen his hold on power in the name of stability generates instability of its own.
On Monday, President Bush urged General Musharraf to hold elections and give up his army post, though he gave little indication of any real change in American policy, which has bankrolled Pakistan’s military with $10 billion in aid since 2001.
But Western diplomats and Pakistani political analysts said the general’s move may sap his anemic public support and has already diverted thousands of policemen and intelligence agents from fighting terrorism to enforce his crackdown.
While they agree that some of General Musharraf’s arguments have merit, they also argue that his attempts to hold on to power run the risk of placing his own political future above the nation’s.
“It may be a short-term Band-Aid for his own survival,” said a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, “but in the end — or even the middle term — it isn’t going to contribute greatly to winning the war on terrorism.”
General Musharraf invited Islamabad’s diplomatic corps to his official residence on Monday to brief them on the situation and on his reasons for declaring emergency rule. But two Western diplomats said the encounter only reinforced concerns that General Musharraf was more focused on vanquishing his political rivals than on fighting terrorism.
At the meeting, the general primarily railed against his political opponents, with special venom reserved for the Supreme Court. When asked by a diplomat to describe specific plans to crack down on terrorists, General Musharraf gave only a vague answer.
“He effectively dodged the question and turned to the military presence in the room and asked them to organize a briefing for ambassadors,” said one of the Western diplomats. “It wasn’t very clear in terms of what was actually being done.”
The second Western diplomat said: “There was serious concern that terrorism and security was not front and center. What was really amazing was him going on and on and on about how bad the judiciary was.”
During the meeting, Anne W. Patterson, the American ambassador, complained to General Musharraf about the “extraordinarily heavy-handed measures” he had used, in particular the arrest of human rights activists. “It would be hard to imagine a group less threatening to the security of Pakistan,” she said, according to a diplomat.
Other diplomats at the meeting made similar points, but General Musharraf, who did not wear his uniform but wore traditional Pakistani clothing, appeared unconvinced, the diplomats said. He said he was concerned that the ambassadors from developed countries did not “understand Pakistan.”
At the same time, Pakistani analysts are increasingly questioning General Musharraf’s contention that emergency rule was needed to help him fight terrorism. Across the country, policemen and intelligence agents have been diverted from hunting terrorists to arresting lawyers, who apparently are being assessed as the greater threat to the general’s rule.
These analysts argue that the extraordinary steps General Musharraf has taken against Pakistan’s courts and its news media will in any case have little effect in Pakistan’s tribal areas, where Al Qaeda and other groups are thriving. Federal judges have limited jurisdiction in the tribal areas and journalists are barred from traveling alone there.
“He was already free to do whatever he wanted to do in the tribal areas,” said Rasul Baksh Rais, a leading Pakistani political scientist. “This does not place Musharraf in a better position.”
Until now, the United States has strongly supported military rule in Pakistan, saying that General Musharraf was needed to guarantee the stability of an impoverished, nuclear-armed nation of 165 million that sits on the front line of American efforts to fight Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
But this spring, with General Musharraf’s popularity fading, the Americans and the British began promoting a transition to democratic rule as a central element to countering militancy. That effort is now lagging.
“We need the moderate majority in Pakistan to be rallied,” David Miliband, Britain’s foreign secretary, said at a news conference in London. “And the only way they can be rallied is through the democratic process.”
In a speech a few hours after he declared martial law on Saturday night, the president rejected that argument. Pakistan, he said, was not ready for democracy, and Westerners who said it was did not understand his nation.
“Please do not expect or demand your level of democracy, which you learned over a number of centuries,” he said. “We are also trying to learn and we are doing well. Please give us time.”
General Musharraf singled out the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, a former loyalist turned political rival. A close aide to General Musharraf accused the court of making politically popular decisions that played on anti-Americanism but hampered the government’s ability to fight militants.
In one case cited by General Musharraf in his speech, the court released 61 men suspected of militancy. It also reopened hard-line religious schools shuttered by the government.
Nawas Abbasi, one of the lawyers who protested Monday in Islamabad, said that two judges appointed by General Musharraf voted for the prisoners to be freed and dismissed the criticism. But a Western diplomat said the court had acted “foolishly,” appearing more interested at times in scoring points against the general than in combating terrorism.
Yet even former military officials contend that General Musharraf has had five years to contain militancy in the tribal areas and enact other reforms, but that he has failed. This was particularly the case in the past year, they said, as more and more of his attention was absorbed by maneuvering to keep his hold on power.
They contend that having the country’s senior military commanders focus solely on fighting militants — and not on the hothouse politics of Islamabad — will lead to better results. And civilians will be better able to reform civilian agencies.
“The major reason for militancy is lack of democracy and governance,” said Talat Masood, a political analyst and retired general. “They’ve been overlooked for short-term gains, and there are not even short-term gains anymore.”
As General Musharraf met with diplomats in Islamabad and the police arrested lawyers, another sign of the troubled military effort in the tribal areas emerged Monday. Government officials confirmed that they had reached a peace agreement with Baitullah Mehsud, one of the area’s most powerful militant commanders.
The government released 25 of Mr. Mehsud’s militants in exchange for 213 army soldiers captured by Mr. Mehsud’s forces in August. The army also agreed to withdraw soldiers from the area inhabited by Mr. Mehsud’s tribe in South Waziristan and allow members of the Frontier Corps, a lightly armed paramilitary force, to patrol the area instead.
Mr. Mehsud pledged to expel all foreigners from the area by Jan. 1 and to dismantle training camps. But he declined to promise not to dispatch fighters to Afghanistan, where suicide bombings against American and NATO forces have soared this year.
Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad, and Ismail Khan from Peshawar, Pakistan.
November 6, 2007
Pg. 1
News Analysis
By David Rohde
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Nov. 5 — While Gen. Pervez Musharraf justified his emergency rule decree as helping him combat terrorism, it could end up weakening his ability to rein in the Qaeda militants who ultimately threaten American interests.
In fact, Western diplomats here said, each step the president takes to strengthen his hold on power in the name of stability generates instability of its own.
On Monday, President Bush urged General Musharraf to hold elections and give up his army post, though he gave little indication of any real change in American policy, which has bankrolled Pakistan’s military with $10 billion in aid since 2001.
But Western diplomats and Pakistani political analysts said the general’s move may sap his anemic public support and has already diverted thousands of policemen and intelligence agents from fighting terrorism to enforce his crackdown.
While they agree that some of General Musharraf’s arguments have merit, they also argue that his attempts to hold on to power run the risk of placing his own political future above the nation’s.
“It may be a short-term Band-Aid for his own survival,” said a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, “but in the end — or even the middle term — it isn’t going to contribute greatly to winning the war on terrorism.”
General Musharraf invited Islamabad’s diplomatic corps to his official residence on Monday to brief them on the situation and on his reasons for declaring emergency rule. But two Western diplomats said the encounter only reinforced concerns that General Musharraf was more focused on vanquishing his political rivals than on fighting terrorism.
At the meeting, the general primarily railed against his political opponents, with special venom reserved for the Supreme Court. When asked by a diplomat to describe specific plans to crack down on terrorists, General Musharraf gave only a vague answer.
“He effectively dodged the question and turned to the military presence in the room and asked them to organize a briefing for ambassadors,” said one of the Western diplomats. “It wasn’t very clear in terms of what was actually being done.”
The second Western diplomat said: “There was serious concern that terrorism and security was not front and center. What was really amazing was him going on and on and on about how bad the judiciary was.”
During the meeting, Anne W. Patterson, the American ambassador, complained to General Musharraf about the “extraordinarily heavy-handed measures” he had used, in particular the arrest of human rights activists. “It would be hard to imagine a group less threatening to the security of Pakistan,” she said, according to a diplomat.
Other diplomats at the meeting made similar points, but General Musharraf, who did not wear his uniform but wore traditional Pakistani clothing, appeared unconvinced, the diplomats said. He said he was concerned that the ambassadors from developed countries did not “understand Pakistan.”
At the same time, Pakistani analysts are increasingly questioning General Musharraf’s contention that emergency rule was needed to help him fight terrorism. Across the country, policemen and intelligence agents have been diverted from hunting terrorists to arresting lawyers, who apparently are being assessed as the greater threat to the general’s rule.
These analysts argue that the extraordinary steps General Musharraf has taken against Pakistan’s courts and its news media will in any case have little effect in Pakistan’s tribal areas, where Al Qaeda and other groups are thriving. Federal judges have limited jurisdiction in the tribal areas and journalists are barred from traveling alone there.
“He was already free to do whatever he wanted to do in the tribal areas,” said Rasul Baksh Rais, a leading Pakistani political scientist. “This does not place Musharraf in a better position.”
Until now, the United States has strongly supported military rule in Pakistan, saying that General Musharraf was needed to guarantee the stability of an impoverished, nuclear-armed nation of 165 million that sits on the front line of American efforts to fight Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
But this spring, with General Musharraf’s popularity fading, the Americans and the British began promoting a transition to democratic rule as a central element to countering militancy. That effort is now lagging.
“We need the moderate majority in Pakistan to be rallied,” David Miliband, Britain’s foreign secretary, said at a news conference in London. “And the only way they can be rallied is through the democratic process.”
In a speech a few hours after he declared martial law on Saturday night, the president rejected that argument. Pakistan, he said, was not ready for democracy, and Westerners who said it was did not understand his nation.
“Please do not expect or demand your level of democracy, which you learned over a number of centuries,” he said. “We are also trying to learn and we are doing well. Please give us time.”
General Musharraf singled out the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, a former loyalist turned political rival. A close aide to General Musharraf accused the court of making politically popular decisions that played on anti-Americanism but hampered the government’s ability to fight militants.
In one case cited by General Musharraf in his speech, the court released 61 men suspected of militancy. It also reopened hard-line religious schools shuttered by the government.
Nawas Abbasi, one of the lawyers who protested Monday in Islamabad, said that two judges appointed by General Musharraf voted for the prisoners to be freed and dismissed the criticism. But a Western diplomat said the court had acted “foolishly,” appearing more interested at times in scoring points against the general than in combating terrorism.
Yet even former military officials contend that General Musharraf has had five years to contain militancy in the tribal areas and enact other reforms, but that he has failed. This was particularly the case in the past year, they said, as more and more of his attention was absorbed by maneuvering to keep his hold on power.
They contend that having the country’s senior military commanders focus solely on fighting militants — and not on the hothouse politics of Islamabad — will lead to better results. And civilians will be better able to reform civilian agencies.
“The major reason for militancy is lack of democracy and governance,” said Talat Masood, a political analyst and retired general. “They’ve been overlooked for short-term gains, and there are not even short-term gains anymore.”
As General Musharraf met with diplomats in Islamabad and the police arrested lawyers, another sign of the troubled military effort in the tribal areas emerged Monday. Government officials confirmed that they had reached a peace agreement with Baitullah Mehsud, one of the area’s most powerful militant commanders.
The government released 25 of Mr. Mehsud’s militants in exchange for 213 army soldiers captured by Mr. Mehsud’s forces in August. The army also agreed to withdraw soldiers from the area inhabited by Mr. Mehsud’s tribe in South Waziristan and allow members of the Frontier Corps, a lightly armed paramilitary force, to patrol the area instead.
Mr. Mehsud pledged to expel all foreigners from the area by Jan. 1 and to dismantle training camps. But he declined to promise not to dispatch fighters to Afghanistan, where suicide bombings against American and NATO forces have soared this year.
Salman Masood contributed reporting from Islamabad, and Ismail Khan from Peshawar, Pakistan.