Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Washington Examiner
March 23, 2007
By Rowan Scarborough, National Security Correspondent
WASHINGTON - Bush administration officials are starting to detect cracks in the bloc of parliament members who support Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
If the current offensive in greater Baghdad stalls, the officials said, the slackening support could grow into a rebellion within the majority United Iraqi Alliance and result in al-Maliki’s removal.
One official cautioned these are only “very early signs” that the U.S. embassy and military command in Baghdad have picked up during talks with Iraqi politicians.
“Some of the unity is dissipating within the Maliki government because of dissatisfaction,” said the defense official, who has held discussion on the matter at the Pentagon. The source asked not to be named for fear of retaliation for talking to a reporter.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates is described as pleased so far with the progress of a five-week-old counterinsurgency push to take back Baghdad neighborhoods. Gates believes that al-Maliki is fulfilling promises he made to President Bush to allow forces to patrol Shiite as well as Sunni neighborhoods. Al-Maliki is a member of the Shiite Islamic Dawa Party, a leading member of the United Iraqi Alliance, which won 14 of 275 seats in the December 2005 elections.
In February, the first two brigades of Iraqi soldiers to arrive in Baghdad stood at 60 percent strength. But the next two totaled closer to 100 percent, the Pentagon said this week. Commanders believe the better attendance is due to paying troops in cash before they go on active duty so they can leave money with their families.
One name that surfaces in discussing an al-Maliki successor is Iyad Allawi, Iraq’s former interim prime minister. A Shiite, Allawi is more secular than al-Maliki and not deeply tied to Iran. But his Iraqi National Accords party fared poorly in the December 2005 legislative elections.
Commanders are still puzzling over the strategy of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi army is blamed by the United States for murderous attacks on Sunni Muslims and American troops. He and his family fled to Iran last month, as the reinforcement strategy began. His army essentially stopped fighting.
“Sadr isn’t done yet,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, a military analyst. “I do believe there will be a Tet Offensive some time in the next year, and that will be because we are being too successful.”
North Vietnam launched the Tet Offensive in 1968 in a series of daring incursions into cities to seize key government buildings and inflict casualties. It has stood as an example of how an insurgency can create the appearance of a battlefield victory, even when the actual offensive is turned back.
March 23, 2007
By Rowan Scarborough, National Security Correspondent
WASHINGTON - Bush administration officials are starting to detect cracks in the bloc of parliament members who support Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
If the current offensive in greater Baghdad stalls, the officials said, the slackening support could grow into a rebellion within the majority United Iraqi Alliance and result in al-Maliki’s removal.
One official cautioned these are only “very early signs” that the U.S. embassy and military command in Baghdad have picked up during talks with Iraqi politicians.
“Some of the unity is dissipating within the Maliki government because of dissatisfaction,” said the defense official, who has held discussion on the matter at the Pentagon. The source asked not to be named for fear of retaliation for talking to a reporter.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates is described as pleased so far with the progress of a five-week-old counterinsurgency push to take back Baghdad neighborhoods. Gates believes that al-Maliki is fulfilling promises he made to President Bush to allow forces to patrol Shiite as well as Sunni neighborhoods. Al-Maliki is a member of the Shiite Islamic Dawa Party, a leading member of the United Iraqi Alliance, which won 14 of 275 seats in the December 2005 elections.
In February, the first two brigades of Iraqi soldiers to arrive in Baghdad stood at 60 percent strength. But the next two totaled closer to 100 percent, the Pentagon said this week. Commanders believe the better attendance is due to paying troops in cash before they go on active duty so they can leave money with their families.
One name that surfaces in discussing an al-Maliki successor is Iyad Allawi, Iraq’s former interim prime minister. A Shiite, Allawi is more secular than al-Maliki and not deeply tied to Iran. But his Iraqi National Accords party fared poorly in the December 2005 legislative elections.
Commanders are still puzzling over the strategy of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi army is blamed by the United States for murderous attacks on Sunni Muslims and American troops. He and his family fled to Iran last month, as the reinforcement strategy began. His army essentially stopped fighting.
“Sadr isn’t done yet,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, a military analyst. “I do believe there will be a Tet Offensive some time in the next year, and that will be because we are being too successful.”
North Vietnam launched the Tet Offensive in 1968 in a series of daring incursions into cities to seize key government buildings and inflict casualties. It has stood as an example of how an insurgency can create the appearance of a battlefield victory, even when the actual offensive is turned back.