Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Wall Street Journal
May 1, 2007
Pg. 11
Any Misstep Might Trigger a Full-Scale Clash Amid Growing Arsenals and More Strident Rhetoric
By Neil King Jr. and Mariam Fam
JERUSALEM -- As Israeli leaders defend themselves against a scathing report outlining government failings during last summer's Lebanon war, the chances of renewed conflict erupting this summer between Israel and its neighbors seem to be rising.
Heightened tensions on at least three fronts are shrinking room for miscalculation -- especially between Israel and Syria, analysts say. Most worry less about any side deliberately starting a war than a seemingly minor incident spiraling quickly into a confrontation and then out of control. Those concerns are especially high amid newly heated rhetoric, a diplomatic freeze and growing arsenals throughout the Middle East.
"Any mistake, any provocation, may lead to a war. We didn't see the situation this way even a year ago," says Eyal Zisser, a senior research fellow and Syrian specialist at Israel's Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.
Some of this summer's potential flash points are familiar. Israeli intelligence and military officials continue to speak publicly about confronting Palestinian militants, who are believed to be amassing firepower and preparing defensive positions in the Gaza Strip. Such calls are likely to intensify following a decision by the militant group Hamas to fire an estimated 21 rockets and 68 mortar shells into Israel on its independence day last week, a clear violation of a five-month-old truce.
Across Israel's northern border, tensions with the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon have worsened, if anything. United Nations peacekeepers have forced Hezbollah to move farther back from the international boundary than its fighters were last summer, when some of them crossed into Israel and seized two Israeli soldiers. That sparked a war that left roughly 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis dead.
Yet both Israeli and Hezbollah leaders say the militia is replenishing its firepower, including the kind of rockets fired into northern Israel last summer, as it prepares for the renewed possibility of fighting.
According to a senior Israeli official, Hezbollah's missile stocks were discussed in an Israeli cabinet meeting Sunday during a briefing by Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. He told cabinet members the only real solution to missile strikes by Hezbollah would be the use of ground forces, according to the senior official.
Lt. Gen. Ashkenazi's comments dovetail with the findings of an interim report on the perceived mistakes of last summer's five-week war in Lebanon. It was released last night. While the report assails Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for what it portrays as severe failings, it also emphasizes how unprepared Israel was to launch an all-out ground assault, which it concluded was the only effective way to confront Hezbollah launch sites.
Because of the Lebanon experience, Israeli officials acknowledge, the nation's leaders are likely to react to future incidents more quickly and with greater force, avoiding what officials here call "tit-for-tat" campaigns. That is one reason analysts fear small incidents could quickly be transformed into large conflicts this summer.
The potential for trouble between Israel and Syria seems to be raising the most concern, especially in the wake of recent comments from Damascus. The Syrian government supports both Hamas and Hezbollah.
Syrian President Bashar Assad and other top officials have recently suggested that Israel's refusal to enter peace talks without preconditions could lead directly to war, rhetoric that Israeli officials say is sharper than anything they have heard from Mr. Assad's regime to date. Syria wants to regain control of the Golan Heights, a swath of territory captured by Israel during the Six Day War of 1967; the countries have never entered into a peace agreement.
In an interview two weeks ago, Mr. Assad said, "We are working daily to strengthen our defenses. We are always preparing ourselves. Israel is a fierce enemy. We have seen nothing but harm from him. We do not know if there will be war, but we ought not to cancel the possibility."
Syria has been pressing for peace talks with Israel for months, while some Israeli military leaders have publicly been predicting confrontation. Mr. Olmert has dismissed Mr. Assad's overtures, saying Damascus would first have to sever virtually all ties with Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli officials have also cited Washington's strategy of isolating Damascus as a reason to abstain from talks, though Bush administration officials have denied pressuring Israel.
But Mr. Olmert himself has recognized the potential danger of a miscalculation between Israel and Syria. His government has been working in recent weeks to send Damascus the message that Israel has no intention of attacking and has no interest in a war. Israeli leaders are also trying to deter a potential Syrian provocation, the senior Israeli official said, by making it clear that if Damascus starts a war, "We'll finish it."
The senior official also said Sunday's cabinet meeting included discussion of a new intelligence assessment concluding that many of Syria's recent military moves appear to be defensive, rather than offensive.
Meanwhile, the political implications of yesterday's interim report on the Lebanon war remained unclear. In advance of its release, Mr. Olmert's aides had said he wouldn't resign. The coalition he heads appears to remain strong, although his personal approval ratings have plummeted into the single digits.
May 1, 2007
Pg. 11
Any Misstep Might Trigger a Full-Scale Clash Amid Growing Arsenals and More Strident Rhetoric
By Neil King Jr. and Mariam Fam
JERUSALEM -- As Israeli leaders defend themselves against a scathing report outlining government failings during last summer's Lebanon war, the chances of renewed conflict erupting this summer between Israel and its neighbors seem to be rising.
Heightened tensions on at least three fronts are shrinking room for miscalculation -- especially between Israel and Syria, analysts say. Most worry less about any side deliberately starting a war than a seemingly minor incident spiraling quickly into a confrontation and then out of control. Those concerns are especially high amid newly heated rhetoric, a diplomatic freeze and growing arsenals throughout the Middle East.
"Any mistake, any provocation, may lead to a war. We didn't see the situation this way even a year ago," says Eyal Zisser, a senior research fellow and Syrian specialist at Israel's Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.
Some of this summer's potential flash points are familiar. Israeli intelligence and military officials continue to speak publicly about confronting Palestinian militants, who are believed to be amassing firepower and preparing defensive positions in the Gaza Strip. Such calls are likely to intensify following a decision by the militant group Hamas to fire an estimated 21 rockets and 68 mortar shells into Israel on its independence day last week, a clear violation of a five-month-old truce.
Across Israel's northern border, tensions with the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon have worsened, if anything. United Nations peacekeepers have forced Hezbollah to move farther back from the international boundary than its fighters were last summer, when some of them crossed into Israel and seized two Israeli soldiers. That sparked a war that left roughly 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis dead.
Yet both Israeli and Hezbollah leaders say the militia is replenishing its firepower, including the kind of rockets fired into northern Israel last summer, as it prepares for the renewed possibility of fighting.
According to a senior Israeli official, Hezbollah's missile stocks were discussed in an Israeli cabinet meeting Sunday during a briefing by Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. He told cabinet members the only real solution to missile strikes by Hezbollah would be the use of ground forces, according to the senior official.
Lt. Gen. Ashkenazi's comments dovetail with the findings of an interim report on the perceived mistakes of last summer's five-week war in Lebanon. It was released last night. While the report assails Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for what it portrays as severe failings, it also emphasizes how unprepared Israel was to launch an all-out ground assault, which it concluded was the only effective way to confront Hezbollah launch sites.
Because of the Lebanon experience, Israeli officials acknowledge, the nation's leaders are likely to react to future incidents more quickly and with greater force, avoiding what officials here call "tit-for-tat" campaigns. That is one reason analysts fear small incidents could quickly be transformed into large conflicts this summer.
The potential for trouble between Israel and Syria seems to be raising the most concern, especially in the wake of recent comments from Damascus. The Syrian government supports both Hamas and Hezbollah.
Syrian President Bashar Assad and other top officials have recently suggested that Israel's refusal to enter peace talks without preconditions could lead directly to war, rhetoric that Israeli officials say is sharper than anything they have heard from Mr. Assad's regime to date. Syria wants to regain control of the Golan Heights, a swath of territory captured by Israel during the Six Day War of 1967; the countries have never entered into a peace agreement.
In an interview two weeks ago, Mr. Assad said, "We are working daily to strengthen our defenses. We are always preparing ourselves. Israel is a fierce enemy. We have seen nothing but harm from him. We do not know if there will be war, but we ought not to cancel the possibility."
Syria has been pressing for peace talks with Israel for months, while some Israeli military leaders have publicly been predicting confrontation. Mr. Olmert has dismissed Mr. Assad's overtures, saying Damascus would first have to sever virtually all ties with Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli officials have also cited Washington's strategy of isolating Damascus as a reason to abstain from talks, though Bush administration officials have denied pressuring Israel.
But Mr. Olmert himself has recognized the potential danger of a miscalculation between Israel and Syria. His government has been working in recent weeks to send Damascus the message that Israel has no intention of attacking and has no interest in a war. Israeli leaders are also trying to deter a potential Syrian provocation, the senior Israeli official said, by making it clear that if Damascus starts a war, "We'll finish it."
The senior official also said Sunday's cabinet meeting included discussion of a new intelligence assessment concluding that many of Syria's recent military moves appear to be defensive, rather than offensive.
Meanwhile, the political implications of yesterday's interim report on the Lebanon war remained unclear. In advance of its release, Mr. Olmert's aides had said he wouldn't resign. The coalition he heads appears to remain strong, although his personal approval ratings have plummeted into the single digits.