The World 15 Years later: 4 outcomes




 
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Boots
 
January 16th, 2005  
Duty Honor Country
 
 

Topic: The World 15 Years later: 4 outcomes


Study sees rivals to US power
Analysis of global trends forecasts growth, threats

By Bryan Bender, Globe Staff | January 14, 2005

WASHINGTON -- By 2020 the world's economy will have grown by 80 percent and average incomes will have risen by half as India and China -- which together will account for more than a third of the planet's population -- surpass Europe and compete with the United States as the major global powers, top US intelligence analysts forecast yesterday.

But poor governance, the absence of freedom, and a lack of technological development, among other factors, could mean that some regions will not reap the benefits of the enormous global changes, potentially resulting in a period of ''pervasive insecurity" that will leave no nation unaffected, according to National Intelligence Council analysts, who represent all US intelligence agencies. In particular, international terrorism will continue to pose a major threat, the council said.

In an analysis of global trends -- in politics, economics, security, the environment, and health -- the council portrayed a future that holds tremendous promise to improve lives as well as grave threats that together will transform relations among individuals, peoples, and nations more, perhaps, than did events of the past 200 years.

''The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players . . . will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries," according to the 100-page study, ''Mapping the Global Future," which was compiled with input from 1,000 specialists who gathered over the past year during 30 conferences on five continents.

The accelerated growth of the world's economy will benefit developed as well as undeveloped nations. Asia probably will displace the United States and Western Europe as ''the focus for international economic dynamism," the study said.

But the benefits will be far from universal and will leave behind especially those countries that harness the technological revolution. The conflicts already rampant are bound to be fueled by a ''perfect storm" of weak governments, lagging economies, religious extremism, immigration, and ''youth bulges," or historic increases in the number of young people, the study said.

The challenges could prove overwhelming for some countries and global institutions such as the United Nations. While the next 15 years will offer opportunities for Middle Eastern countries to become more democratic, for example, some of the emerging democracies of the former Soviet Union and Southeast Asia could backslide and become less democratic, the report said.

In the same period, the report predicts that the key factors that spawned international terrorism, particularly from radical Islamic groups, will show no signs of abating. By 2020, the Al Qaeda terrorist network is expected to be superseded by similarly inspired extremist groups as Islam grows as a political force in the world.

The splinter groups, which will be more decentralized and harder to track, could be even deadlier, seeking to unleash attacks with biological or nuclear weapons.

''Even if the number of extremists dwindle . . . the terrorist threat is likely to remain," the study said. ''The rapid dispersion of biological and other lethal forms of technology increases the potential for an individual not affiliated with any terrorist group to be able to wreak widespread loss of life."

The authors of the report, available at www.cia.gov/nic, emphasized that their work is not meant as a prediction of what will happen, but rather, to jump-start the kind of big-picture discussions among nations and world bodies needed to collectively contain the scourge of terrorism and to help ensure that the global convulsions that lie ahead are managed as effectively as possible to guarantee smooth international relations.

They outlined four ''possible futures" to depict the kinds of scenarios they think could result from the tectonic shift occurring in the global landscape.

One scenario, called ''Pax Americana," depicts a world in which US predominance survives the radical changes and helps fashion a new, inclusive world order. In another, ''A New Caliphate," the global movement of radical Islam challenges Western norms and values as the foundation of the world system.

''Cycle of Fear" shows how concerns about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction lead to ''large-scale intrusive security measures" to prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, ''possibly introducing an Orwellian world."

In the fourth, ''Davos World," robust growth led by India and China creates a broader playing field among powers and erodes America's economic preeminence.

One piece of good news, the study said, is that the likelihood of a major war among large powers in the next decade and a half is lower than in the past 100 years.

The report also predicts that established powers will have much older populations than rising powers; that the number of states with nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction will grow; and that energy supplies will be sufficient to meet global demand, but political instability could disrupt supply.

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I put this in the general chat section so more eyes could see it. This article will make people from Asia very happy about there growing power in world affairs

SOURCES
January 16th, 2005  
Charge 7
 
 
Interesting post, Doody. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it though. How well I remember the predictions for what the world would be like in 2000 back in 1980 or so. None of which have turned out.
January 16th, 2005  
Whispering Death
 
 
Yeah, I've read 2 articles over this report and to me it just seems like a big waste of taxpayer money. First off, as a member of the entertainment industry I can tell you Indian cinema giving Hollywood a run for his money will NOT happen, indian cinema doesn't export. The rest of it is very general stuff almsot all Americans know. "Big chance of a new terrorist attack by 2020" Oh really? Nuts, who would think that would happen! "China and India becomming bigger world players" No way, wow you're blowing my mind here man.

The only thing that is really useful is the prediction that the U.S. is going to not want to be the world's policeman anymore. Especially after Americans feel like the world is screwing us over in Iraq, I don't see Americans being very happy with our boys dying in Africa or Bosnia. Do you remember how pissed Americans got when there was talk of putting troops in Libya?
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Boots
January 16th, 2005  
Duty Honor Country
 
 
what was most interesting was the reaction of India's and Pakastan's media websites. Click on the link to the google index and read some of their opinion's on the matter.
January 16th, 2005  
Doc.S
 
No offence to those experts but I think this sounds over-optimistic in my humble opinion. And I think that it is almost impossible to foresee the future if a man dont have a time-machine today. I have seen changes comming faster then supersonic planes these last 5 years, and it dont looks like this trend will reverse itselfe if I follow my gut feeling that is. Murphys Law is my best friend these days I think.

Cheers:
Doc.S
January 16th, 2005  
Whispering Death
 
 
I agree wholeheartedly. Who saw 9/11 comming? Who saw the fall of the soviet union? Who saw Iraq invading Kuwait? All the pivotal events of the last 20 years have been unforseen twists. The best way to deal with them is to be nimble and ready for anything, because these forcasts are a big waste of my taxpayer money.
January 16th, 2005  
rotc boy
 
 
there is a conspiracy radio talk show that i listen to when i am extremely bored and just for some laughs, but they were saying that WE PLANNED 9/11, and they talked about some proof like Rumsfield saying "when the missile crashed into the pentagon" then a reporter said "dont you mean plane?" and the radio host was saying that it was a freudian slip and they also talked about how the damage to the pentagon, there is no damage from the wings and there was never an engine found, and how pictures of that show the plane hitting the ground before crashing but there was no evidence of it ever hitting the ground before hitting the pentagon. At that time i couldnt take their bulls*** anymore and turned it off, but it actually made a little sense, except for the fact that there would be so many people involved in that that someone would have talked by now

Quote:
Who saw 9/11 comming?
January 16th, 2005  
Whispering Death
 
 
Yeah, actually that theory first came about in a book by a French author in 2002. Since then his book has become a bestseller in Europe and many europens including a statlingly high percentage of Frenchmen actually do believe that the CIA attacked the twin towers. To me it just emphaiszes how, in general, Europeans just don't 'get' it and it may cost them dearly in the long run if they choose to believe conspiracy theories and keep their heads in the sand.
January 17th, 2005  
Charge 7
 
 
I wouldn't go labeling Europeans with that. Many misguided people in the US think that crock of is true too.
January 17th, 2005  
Chinaman
 
it seemed true, here in new york its the topic of the day, a servey showed that 70% of people in new york city and other north eastern cities believed that cia did it.

they think osamas a scam

and then in the southern states another servey was set up and some 90% stated that it is untrue and that one of the quoted " them yankees think up of weir' stuff eh"

the servey result was posted in grand central station, as well as the rocfella center, i think the police torn it down now