Why no love for India?




View Poll Results :Will India or China rise up in the future to take the lead in Asia?
India 11 26.19%
China 29 69.05%
Other (please specify) 2 4.76%
Voters: 42. You may not vote on this poll

 
--
Boots
 
November 16th, 2004  
Damien435
 
 

Topic: Why no love for India?


Why is it that everyone thinks that China will rise up and be the leader of Asia and yet India does not get any mention? They both have a very extensive population, while India's is still growning China's is slowing down, both have a rich history, and both have growing economies, and both have the ability to call up large armies at need, so why is it that China gets all the attention? India is projected to hit a population of 1.6 Billion in less than 20 years while China is projected to stay at 1.2 Billion, maybe even decrease. Plus India is the birthplace of two of the world's largest religions, Hinduhism and Buddhism, and a vast majority of the latter are actually Chinese. India has nukes like China does, and they probably have better equipment, so why? Pakistan? They are growing too, in the future they will need more oil, then they may start looking at Iran for Oil, if this happens it would not be to hard for India and Pakistan to sign a non-aggression pact if India had the chance to take Southeast Asia and possibly even China. What do you think?
November 16th, 2004  
FlyingFrog
 
First, let me clean some "facts" from you:
The population thing is this:
According to a UN report, India's population will rise to 1.6 billion in 2050, while China's population will hit 1.4 billion in 2050, then start to stablize.
Also, China is NOW allowing families to have 2 kids in cities (in countryside it has always been 2 kids, and for minorities, no limitation).

OK, my Opinion regarding India:

1. India is of course rising too, also in fast pace. The thing is the China grows just a bit faster, this year 2004 China's growth is 9.5%, even HongKong is growing 7.5%.

2. India will be mega power too in some 30 years or 40 years, it is just a question of time. One big disadvantage of India is because she is "Democratic", it means extremely in-efficient in many aspects, but the Advantage is that their government will never make BIG mistakes like China had during Culture Revolution (10 years waste of time). But now Chinese government will not make those kinda of mistakes more, since it is only concentrating on ECONOMY, so no more BS about Communisme, just let people make money get rich.

3. China's economy is NOT slowing down, the fact is it is growing TOO fast, hence government is trying to do Macro control on the enconomic growth, to control it to make it grow in the tracks in a healthy way. The prediction of next year's growth is still about 9%. If you don't control it, it may grow some 14%, but it may be not so healthy, like eating, you cannot eat TOO much one time, you should eat in a correct way.

4. China got more attention, true, one reason is also that China is not "demoratic", so it makes some ppl fear the rise of China, hence more talking about it, I think. But honestly, here in Western countries, when I talk with other Westeners, they all start to say China will be Number 1 soon, overtaking USA, including my Indian friends too.

Forget my next points, leave them to next rounds.
November 16th, 2004  
Damien435
 
 
Two kids still equals Zero Population Growth.

I really don't fear China overtaking the US, people said the same things in the 50's, 60's, 70's, and 80's about the USSR, look how that turned out.

Why is Democracy such a problem? Inefficient, yes, but then again corruption and Communism seem to go hand in hand when looking at past models, I will give you this though, Chinese Communism was always much, much better and more civilized than Korean or Soviet communism, if I had to choose between one of those three systems I would choose Chinese communism, not that it matters because communism in China is essentially dead, replaced by a more tightly controlled capitalist system. I agree with you on the big mistake, but yet at the same time remember this, the Roman Republic became great becuase each Consul only had one year with which to gain fame and get a spot as a senator, they usually attained this fame through military conquest, perhaps India could be the same.

I never said China's economy was slowling down (I don't think) China and India are both growing rapidly, but China is doing so by selling goods to America, American companies are outsourcing in India, if say China starts to make threatening actions towards Taiwan, we may stop buying goods from China, and that make a huge dent in your growth, remember 3 years ago when a Chinese Mig clipped an American Plane and it was forced to make an emergency landing in China? Alot of attention was given to the fact that China and the US were close trading partners and that a trade embargo would have cost the US alot of money but it would be devastating for China.

I agree with you on this issue, China definely gets more attention because we have such stark ideological differences, fear, of course, try and tell me you are not scared of a war with the US, if you can do it and be sincere than you need to be committed to a mental institution and the same is true for the other war around.

Of course everything I said was hypothetical, India and Pakistan have a deep seeded hatred towards each other, that will be the deciding factor, India can not afford to worry about a war with China when Pakistan stands ready to stab them in the back, but China should worry about Russia, they tried to take Manchuria at the end of WWII, they may still have their eye on China, ready to stab China in the back in the event of war with India, or the US for that matter.

BTW, let us try to keep this civil, you and I do not have the best history, let's put that behind us and try to have a nice conversation.
--
Boots
November 16th, 2004  
godofthunder9010
 
 
Truth be told, I think that both India and China are up and coming. They're at different levels right now, but both are on their way to becoming frighteningly powerful. China is ahead in most categories, but it would be incredibly foolish to ignore India.

The biggest question is -- how will the two great Asian powers interact with each other?
November 16th, 2004  
FlyingFrog
 
1 .That's why I said China's population will be stablized round 2050, staying at 1.4 billion like that.

2. No fear for China's rise, that's good, since Chinese people are quite OK types, usually we don't threat any one.

3. Don't compare USSR with China, we are completely 2 different cultures. If you look at those Eastern Culture countries who have already reached the TOP level, like Japan, Korea, HongKong, Taiwan, Singapore, they all did it in just 30 to 40 years, richer than Most Western countries. Chinese ppl are extremly hard working ppl, you can't compare USSR with China at all, we will make it happen: China overtake USA, I am sure.

4. About oorruption: India is democratic, yet the coruption is high there too. China has also a problem, big problem with coruption, true, but things are changing fast. Last 2 weeks the HOTTEST web news is about the daughter of a vice-mayor in a Chinese southern city Shenzhen, she made a film, then web got her "property" published, she has around 1 million USD, how can a communist family got so much money? Bom, Big trouble now, CCP is going to make trouble with this guy, soon or later, you then see: China is getting more open and free, going in the good direction.
Btw, CCP hates corruption, they even gave the mayor of Beijing a free bullet after he corrupted with money.

5. USA does not invest that much money in China, it only occupies a about less than 10% of total FDI in China, most FDI comes from Oversea's Chinese. Trade with USA is big, but it takes only less than 30% of total Chinese export. But don't forget, China also imports BIG from USA, it is win-win case for both countries, or lose-lose in worst case. JFYI: China this year becomes the 3th largest Trading nation, with over 1000 billion USD, Foreign Trade, overtaking Japan, well behind USA and Germany.

6. Yes, we always keep at least one eye open for Russia, but we are now not afraid of them anymore, we are very confident, the fear if anther way around, but I don't think Russia and China will get into big trouble, we are trying to build good neighborhood at least.

Nice conversation? HaveI ever been a not-nice conversator?

Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010
Truth be told, I think that both India and China are up and coming. They're at different levels right now, but both are on their way to becoming frighteningly powerful. China is ahead in most categories, but it would be incredibly foolish to ignore India.

The biggest question is -- how will the two great Asian powers interact with each other?
China and India will go along very well in future, we are both old civilizations, no problem at all for thousands years. But true, we need to keep those hawks in India observed, but that group is in small number, and I believe those hawks will become peace-lovers soon too
November 16th, 2004  
Doc.S
 
FlyingFrog is right on alot of points here - I give my two cents as requested.

1: China not "democratic"

2: Human Rights not the main issue in China and thats why all major companies moves from sweden to China and makes good profits on low wages and no complicated unions or other agreements with the employers. I say buisness men - smart = moving to China.

3: Religion? China is not facing a Fundamentalist threat that other regions in the world are facing, wich includes India in most respect. No religions as Islam or other can interfer with the situation in China. PLA is well equiped and trained to defend their boarders and strike back any attempts of future WW3 scenarios another good reason for moving companies to China. (This is starting to sound like I am pro-China over here, But I am pro-reality though)

4: War threat? Pakistan vs India always a hotspot if you ask me. They will eventually be at war but China has only Taiwan and US to worry about today and for the future. No war between those nations as I can see it will be triggered. More then maby a small Taiwan re-union perhaps. US is today almost a twin nation to China when it comes to todays buisness world, neither one of them want to risk it. Pakistan vs India. Hell breaks loose there from time to time it is only a mather OF time, and the country side of India is far behind the development in China at the moment.

My wifes sister came back from one year in India last summer and nothing ever seem to change on the countryside of India. But China is on its move towards a better place for everyone. How China manage it is another question but I think China will be the leading nation in almost every perspective in the future togheter with a smaller and weaker US. Europe and other nations togehter with Russia has no real future to be honest. It is only figments of the imagination nothing else you will see. All this togheter and you have the reality and the future in a box. This was all from Future news Doc.S chanel X 8)

Cheers:
Doc.S
November 16th, 2004  
godofthunder9010
 
 
That fact of the matter is that the future is very tricky to predict. For instance, post WW1 Germany should have seemed unrecoverable -- it seemed obvious that they would never rise again. They most certainly did rise again. My point is that the future can be very tricky to foretell. So many things can happen that nobody is expecting.

The balance of power and cooperation (or lack thereof) between India and China in the future will have a more important impact on things in the Far East than anything else, in the long run. While hotspots of controversy and potential conflict in Korea, Taiwan and Kashmir will remain significant for the time being, those are tiny in comparison to potential of India+China. Allied, those two nations would be nearly impossible to stop in war. Against one another in all-out war, they would set a new standard the deathtoll in a war (even if nuclear weapons were not to be used at all).
November 16th, 2004  
A Can of Man
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingFrog

2. No fear for China's rise, that's good, since Chinese people are quite OK types, usually we don't threat any one.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *Choke* *Thud!*


But about India.
I think it's more to do with geography and area of interest. India might want to be a force to be reconed with in the Indian Ocean and as a consequence, the Straits of Malacca route, however, I don't see them spreading influence into the South China Sea... too much competition from Southeast Asia (namely Malaysia and Singapore) and also from China.
India's main test will be their ability to organize.
November 17th, 2004  
FlyingFrog
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_13th_redneck
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingFrog

2. No fear for China's rise, that's good, since Chinese people are quite OK types, usually we don't threat any one.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *Choke* *Thud!*
Lol dude, you "never" miss a chance to choke me do you?
Well, ask your North brothers, they know better the brotherhood btw Koreans and Chinese.

What I said is TRUTH.

Well, keep in TOPIC
November 17th, 2004  
A Can of Man
 
 
I did keep it on topic. Read the paragraph below.