Where to now?

hawky94

The Brit Pack (probationer)
Hi all,

This question has been posted on another forum that I am a part of, and I thought I'd ask the same question of you lot here...

Since the war in Afghanistan is drawing to a close (What with British troops scheduled to pull out by 2014, and a 'surge' of 33,000 US troops leaving today).

The question is: Where will the next conflict zone be?

Although impractical and nonsensical, my answer would be, hopefully nowhere else, anywhere, ever.

But, seen as in all of recorded history there has never been more than 200 years of peace between us humans, conflict is somewhat (regrettably so) inevitable.

So, where to next? Will the Americans (and Obama) follow through with their (his) threats to Iran? What were they, somewhere along the lines of "Stand down, or else?"

Or are the Israelis more likely to make the first move on Iran and Ahmadinejad? (They were supposedly behind the assassination of that Iranian nuclear scientist and his wife)...

The consequences of such direct action by the Israelis might be... what exactly? Iran's response would no doubt be swift (depending on how much Israeli fighters destroyed on their initial phases of invasion), and ignite a war in the region. What would be the world's response to this?

Let me know your thoughts...

Cheers...

Hawky.
 
no country can afford to keep it's military deployed... everyone is broke... I would think that, to answer your question, nowhere. But that will create problems......... the global house of cards is going to come tumbling down.... what we see is akin to the lead up of WW2 or even WW1.... schit is going to hit the fan and you will see it in the next few.
 
In a longer time period; we may see a collapse one of the necessities of life. If the Global warming continue as it does right now. An increase of Global temperature will influence water sources around the world and if or rather when those rivers, lakes, and other water sources begin to decrease. The people in these areas will begin to move. People in southern Europe will begin to move north and the countries in the north don't want them, they cannot feed them. People in Africa will try to go south, but the majority will go north. The same thing will happen in Central America and in Asia. When this migration or exodus occur, countries will close their borders and these countries will be forced to use violence to keep them closed.

We can be rational about conflicts and disagreements, but not when we are starving
 
Sheridan......When you have military organisation they cost you no matter what you do. If they are not deployed they are still training and blasting away with ammunition. Places like Afghanistan are great training grounds for the military to hone their skills
Now the UK has been in constant action ever since the end WW2 and the only year that they did not lose a soldier in some conflict or other was 1968. So after 2014 there will be more cuts to the armed forces as the numbers will no longer be required.
 
I don't know about the British exit-strategy, but the Danish forces serving with the UK-lead TFH, will most likely change from being active participants in combat operations to being advisors/mentors to the ANSF. (This is already slowly taking place as we speak.) Adding to this, there will be units tasked with protecting the units training and mentoring the ANSF.
There are no garauntees regarding how long we will keep a Danish contingent in Afghanistan. The only thing the politicians have decided is that the Danish Armed Forces will not be sending soldiers to Afghanistan with the sole purpose of finding and killing INS, after '14.

KV.
 
Sheridan......When you have military organisation they cost you no matter what you do. If they are not deployed they are still training and blasting away with ammunition. Places like Afghanistan are great training grounds for the military to hone their skills
Now the UK has been in constant action ever since the end WW2 and the only year that they did not lose a soldier in some conflict or other was 1968. So after 2014 there will be more cuts to the armed forces as the numbers will no longer be required.
I agree in part... true, countries have to keep a military but they cannot afford to let them *play* in the field..... cost to much to go on field training exercises. What do your Infantry and Armor types do while in garrison? You cannot take them out to play more then a couple of times a year. Special Ops types seem to get a lions share of the pie during periods of peace... in terms of *keeping the edge sharp* blasting away and such. I also agree that places like Afghanistan are great training areas and also a place to experiment with the new toys being developed - but keeping large numbers there is losing the *cost/benefit* ratio game.
Our own government continues to print money, foreign governments are also robbing Peter to pay Paul...... this game CANNOT continue, we (the nations) have no more loose change to cover the cost.. world leaders know this - they refuse to face the reality of it. Look at France? People went apeschit when told that austerity measures needed to be taken, ie, they had to work a bit longer for a paycheck, have less vacation time... same-same Greece -- the world has become an entitlement whorehouse........ less work but expectations of more and more cake and ice cream - it's gotta fall apart, I believe that time is very fast approaching.

And Iran is going to provoke an attack on itself (so they can claim they didn't start anything) then Russia and China will either be the toothless tiger and verbally condemn the action or they will finally put their chips into the pot and get the ballgame started. I say lets have at it and let the pieces fall where they may.
 
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Yesterday, Iran Revolutionary Guards commander said that the war between Iran and Israel is imminent but where and when it is unspecified. They always said Israel didn't dare to attack to Iran but it is the first time I have heard this statement from an Iranian top commander .
 
I am really interested also. I think it will be Tunis, Alzhir or Syria (Sorry for my bad enlgish, but as a future MP, i'm really concerned)
 
I firmly believe that all world powers should just go ahead and build super capable military robots featuring the latest military hardware.

Launch them all to the moon, and commence destroying each other while Dragon Force covers of each's Country's national anthem is playing.

The whole affair will be aired on international social media networks, and Pay Per View to pay for the fiasco.

Then maybe finally the question of who has the biggest proverbial throbbing testosterone soaked willy of a military machine will be settled.

And we can carry on the apparently less important and meaningful tasks at hand.

Such as fixing our crippled globalisation scheme of economics, and avoiding world wide depression.

Or watching as lack of clean fresh water extends beyond the bounds of 3rd world nations and the taps go dry in western cities.

You know, those lower priorities.
 
Today there are many little wars and most of them are not a threat to "world peace".

I personally see the ME and the South China Sea as possible conflicts that can cause a lot of damage because superpowers are involved.

In the ME Russia threathened the West and Sunnies not to invade Syria. But Syria already gets lots of help from Iran and Hezbollah and propably from Russia too. What will these countries do when Asad is in big trouble? Anyway his regime is getting weaker and weaker. Will Asad attack Israel in a last ditch to get the Arabs together?

Iran too is sliding into more trouble. It has lots of oil but can't sell it and the people are getting more nervous about their financial situations. If that regime is about to fall will they resort to attacking other countries (Israel, Saudi Arabia) in a last ditch to unite its people?

The Japan-China conflict about some tiny islands worries me too. The stronger China becomes the more it shows its muscles. What they are doing now is testing their adversaries, if they don't react they just take the island. The Japanese navy is for the moment stronger than the Chinese one, but as soon as the Chinese are convinced they can handle the Japanese navy they will act. This will put the US in a very difficult situation and surely when the Russians follow the Chinese and just confiscate the Japanese Islands they have held after WWII and should have given back.
 
Today there are many little wars and most of them are not a threat to "world peace".

I personally see the ME and the South China Sea as possible conflicts that can cause a lot of damage because superpowers are involved.

In the ME Russia threathened the West and Sunnies not to invade Syria. But Syria already gets lots of help from Iran and Hezbollah and propably from Russia too. What will these countries do when Asad is in big trouble? Anyway his regime is getting weaker and weaker. Will Asad attack Israel in a last ditch to get the Arabs together?

Iran too is sliding into more trouble. It has lots of oil but can't sell it and the people are getting more nervous about their financial situations. If that regime is about to fall will they resort to attacking other countries (Israel, Saudi Arabia) in a last ditch to unite its people?

The Japan-China conflict about some tiny islands worries me too. The stronger China becomes the more it shows its muscles. What they are doing now is testing their adversaries, if they don't react they just take the island. The Japanese navy is for the moment stronger than the Chinese one, but as soon as the Chinese are convinced they can handle the Japanese navy they will act. This will put the US in a very difficult situation and surely when the Russians follow the Chinese and just confiscate the Japanese Islands they have held after WWII and should have given back.
the worlds economies are in the tank.... a house of cards with no support structure anymore. It HAS to come down... China, possibly with Russian support, is going to drop their holdings onto the market making the dollar worthless (and with this admionistration printing 40 billion a month, each and every month as long as it takes, it is going to happen sooner then later) - the world will go into panic mode, something is going to break then....... I say let it happen, let the pieces fall where they may and maybe we can rebuild something better.
 
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There are warning signs from the Horn of Africa....The Middle East..... And between China and Japan. Many different countries are flexing the muscles so the US should not be short of conflicts to send its troops to.
 
the worlds economies are in the tank.... a house of cards with no support structure anymore. It HAS to come down... China, possibly with Russian support, is going to drop their holdings onto the market making the dollar worthless (and with this admionistration printing 40 billion a month, each and every month as long as it takes, it is going to happen sooner then later) - the world will go into panic mode, something is going to break then....... I say let it happen, let the pieces fall where they may and maybe we can rebuild something better.

It is impossible for China to get the US on its knees financially. Most people are wrong about the amount of money the US owns China. Half of US debt is from the US itself. China only has about 13% of it. The US economy is still 3 times larger than China's and if we add the economy of US allies, China becomes a little player. More and more businesses are leaving China. The ones who stay make products for the China market.

I don't know about other people but my situation is far better than 10 years ago, crisis or no crises.

I think you are too pessimistic.
 
It is impossible for China to get the US on its knees financially. Most people are wrong about the amount of money the US owns China. Half of US debt is from the US itself. China only has about 13% of it. The US economy is still 3 times larger than China's and if we add the economy of US allies, China becomes a little player. More and more businesses are leaving China. The ones who stay make products for the China market.

I don't know about other people but my situation is far better than 10 years ago, crisis or no crises.

I think you are too pessimistic.
you are possibly correct, it just looks like the world is tearing itself apart... like the Lemming populations - it comes to a head and they all run over the cliff and decrease the population........
 
There are warning signs from the Horn of Africa....The Middle East..... And between China and Japan. Many different countries are flexing the muscles so the US should not be short of conflicts to send its troops to.

With U.S. diplomatic upheaval coupled with economic stagnation the temptation to accomplish regional goals by many nations is becoming much more tempting.

The best time for a country not in line with the U.S. is to act when the U.S. is scrambled into another costly low results conflict elsewhere.

Also to do so in a means that requires as many troops and logistical expenditures as possible to further strain any American Response.
 
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