What's your impression on China?

Re: What's your impression on China? 2

I don't see China being aggressive with any country that doesn't share a border with them. I don't see them invading India or Viet Nam again. Number one on the 'hit list' is Taiwan, in my opinion. The military is building up its capabilities and how this capability is used, we will have to see. Like most countries which acquire a large military.... sooner or later they will use that military.

as MacArthur correctly predicted, the only way to fight the Chinese is with Nuclear Weapons, and no one wants to do that.
The USA was reluctant back when the Soviet Union didn't have many nuclear weapons and the People's Republic of China didn't have any. If the USA was reluctant back then, when the USA was the dominant power under those conditions, think how reluctant they are to use nuclear weapons today. Especially having a president who doesn't consider himself a cowboy!
 
The Chinese don't need to be militarily aggressive in this climate - although they have that in their back pocket. They are be aggressive in sewing access to raw materials, economically tieing developing countries to their purse strins and generally building an economic empire that spreads across the world to sustain their continued growth. For those with a historical bent that is how every great empire has got started and they ultimately had to defend those resources to prevent someone else getting them!
 
China is a fast developing economic powerhouse. Whether they develop as "world class" country will depend very much on their acceptance of behaviour that is seen as acceptable by the remainder of the world.

It will take time, but at the rate China is adapting to change, it won't be long.
 
I am amazed at how the Chinese economy has grown in such a short period of time. Take it as a grain of salt, but according to Robert Fogel, a Nobel laureate in economics, the Chinese economy will reach US$123 trillion in 2040 and will account for 40 percent of the gross world product - dwarfing the proportion of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent).[13][14] China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Century
 
I don't see China being aggressive with any country that doesn't share a border with them. I don't see them invading India or Viet Nam again. Number one on the 'hit list' is Taiwan, in my opinion. The military is building up its capabilities and how this capability is used, we will have to see. Like most countries which acquire a large military.... sooner or later they will use that military.


The USA was reluctant back when the Soviet Union didn't have many nuclear weapons and the People's Republic of China didn't have any. If the USA was reluctant back then, when the USA was the dominant power under those conditions, think how reluctant they are to use nuclear weapons today. Especially having a president who doesn't consider himself a cowboy!
Agreed to the letter!
 
What keeps floating around my head when thinking about China is that we must not forget that the Chinese are a proud people with more history than most others. And one of the low points in recent chinese history is, e.g., their defeat against the overwhelming power of the 'Eight-Nation Alliance' (mainly consisting of Japanese, Russian and British contingents) in the so-called Boxer Rebellion, not mentioning what happened to the civilians afterwards...
People just don't tend to forget things like these easily. Especially not the Chinese, especially not when there's some serious humiliation involved.

No matter what you'll tell me, European imperialism left some people over there in desperate need of revenge.

Just my 2 Cents though...
 
I am amazed at how the Chinese economy has grown in such a short period of time. Take it as a grain of salt, but according to Robert Fogel, a Nobel laureate in economics, the Chinese economy will reach US$123 trillion in 2040 and will account for 40 percent of the gross world product - dwarfing the proportion of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent).[13][14] China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Century
Say what!?!????????!!!!?!??!????
 
And how many giant "if"s does this prediction contain? Global economic crises like the most recent one are likely to become more frequent in the next decades because nobody learns anything from them. Eventually, the collapse of the global markets is inevitable. Let's see how well the Chinese fare without anyone to buy their export goods. As for the per capita income...LOL. Ridiculous.
Just my 2 Cents...
 
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There's a lot of "if"s because you can't really tell the future and they do depend on a lot of assumptions or "if"s.
China "rising" probably isn't a very good description at all. It's China returning to its original place, except possibly at a 21st century scale.
When I talk to some Chinese people there seems to be a lot of this "revenge" mentality in them. Revenge is a pretty big theme in many of their stories actually.
 
i think it is a peaceful country but it is famous of its imitation of others manufactures.
 
There is an interesting article on the website called "foreign policy" all about the chinese military. basicallly the first gulf war alarmed them because they always believed sheer numbers would win out, but the slaughter of the iraqis by the americans convinced them they would have to upgrade.

Whilst they have a huge army, its quality is unclear to me, also depth of supplies. In war, the only country these days with a large quantity of supplies is the US, everyone else would run out of missiles, bullets, tanks and planes etc extremely fast. there is none of that turning out spitfires every few weeks like they did in WW!!.

They don't have a blue water navy, they are trying to build one, but the key word here is try. I'm not sure they could even send large numbers of troops to taiwan. The general understanding I have read is that they still haven't worked out how to build carriers.

As for land battles, most of the countries in the region aren't going to threaten them because of the sheer size of their arm forces. India knows it is a decade behind in everything, economic development, military spending and is concerned. china isbuilding ports in pakistan, burma and sri linka ( I think). For every billion india invests in africa, china has invested 10 billion, to guarantee resources.

Also there was a book recently about china, which I can't remember which says that geographically china has problems, large parts of the hinterland can't sustain the population, the yellow river doesn't have enough water fro all. Tibet and Xinjing wont' sustain large populations, so the country is crammed into the south east of its landmass.

If there was a major development in the ability to reverse desertification, without using vast quantities of water, then I would say one country was in trouble... Australia. as it stands it can manage its current population and little more. if they could make the inner red desert bloom and solve the cheap desalination plant problem, then australia with its vast resources would be in serious trouble, and not just from china, from australia, indonesia, vietnam etc. Invasion followed by colonisation. Settlers make things permanent.
 
I am amazed at how the Chinese economy has grown in such a short period of time. Take it as a grain of salt, but according to Robert Fogel, a Nobel laureate in economics, the Chinese economy will reach US$123 trillion in 2040 and will account for 40 percent of the gross world product - dwarfing the proportion of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent).[13][14] China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Century

There are lies, damned lies and statistics - can't remember who said it, but he must've had economists and political pundits in mind when he / she said it! That the Chinese economy is going to grow and become huge is without question, but sooner or later it will find itself stuck into the rut of consumer to foreign suppliers, as importing raw materials becomes more expensive, labour costs will rise, causing manufacturing to move to cheaper labour markets - Africa, your turn is coming, so and so forth. Much as the Eurpoean economies have discovered. So what will China's niche be? Will it try to become a new global banking centre? Somehow I doubt it? But it will be one of the major players on the world stage, providing it doesn't shatter from within, which given its moribund political system, wealth disparity and burgeoning internal issues is just as likely, is this the USSR of the future is the question that should be addressed, and how will we deal with the fragmentation of this country and the attendant violence that will follow. But then maybe today I'm just being gloomy.
 
There's a lot of "if"s because you can't really tell the future and they do depend on a lot of assumptions or "if"s.
China "rising" probably isn't a very good description at all. It's China returning to its original place, except possibly at a 21st century scale.
When I talk to some Chinese people there seems to be a lot of this "revenge" mentality in them. Revenge is a pretty big theme in many of their stories actually.

Of course, there are cultural influences which mean that Chinese culture isn't as homogenous as some might think, but having an ethnically Chinese fiancee, thus a partial chinese family and knowing something of Chinese history (especially mainland China), I can attest to this to some degree.

Chinese people are very pragmatic. Culturally, Han Chinese have much in common with your mediterranean cultures. So things like Pride, Reputation, and if needs be Revenge, are very strong elements in their culture and history.

And if you look at Mainland China, they basically bent over and copped it up the @ss from European and Western nations/empires for a good 200-300 years. Now that they're back on their feet after a 200 year hiatus, they've demonstrated that they're not going to be dissuaded from looking after what they perceive to be their own interests, and if that means buggerising someone who gets in their way, so be it. It might not sound very nice, but it's a pretty natural reaction - and anyone who thinks that their government couldn't or wouldn't buggerise whomever they see fit to achieve their goals, when and as they see fit to do so (and Western Liberalism be damned), is kidding themselves.

I view the PRC as just another country with all it's good and bad. Hopefully relations with them will be such in the future that my country remains friends with theirs. If not, well, I'll deal with that when it happens.
 
I am amazed at how the Chinese economy has grown in such a short period of time. Take it as a grain of salt, but according to Robert Fogel, a Nobel laureate in economics, the Chinese economy will reach US$123 trillion in 2040 and will account for 40 percent of the gross world product - dwarfing the proportion of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent).[13][14] China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Century

It is shameful that the Chinese are stealing a lot of the technology that they export. This is one of the reasons that technology exports from the U.S. to China are so closely monitored. The Chinese will have to start doing their own R&D soon or else they will see a precipitous drop in their technology exports.

One thing that the link above does not address is how China plans on controlling inflation. No economy can grow this quickly without the danger of significant inflation.

The Chinese military follows the Russian tenet the "Quantity has a quality all its own." IMHO China will NEVER be able to project power like the U.S. at least in our lifetimes.

My 2 cents
 
In our lifetime, being a regional super power is what is most possible and probable. Projecting power like the United States will probably take at least a hundred years. This thing called momentum I suppose.
Botak's view is also very accurate.
Believe me, if foreigners carved out pieces of your country and treated you like dirt, you'd want a little payback.
 
One thing that the link above does not address is how China plans on controlling inflation. No economy can grow this quickly without the danger of significant inflation.


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