What's the future for North Korea?

B

benaakatz

Active member
I think it's pretty well agreed upon that the situation in the north can't stay like this forever...in the long run something is going to change. My question to you guys is how do you think things will play out?

a) a war with the south/u.s.a. that radically changes the face of the peninsula
b) a leadership change/revolt of th people
c) the eventual total collapse of north korea, leaving the south to deal with the mess
d) no, the situation will go like this forever (the foreseeable future)
e) something else

Thoughts?
 
Now, if we hold up long enough and if the North doesn't attack us, they will all starve to death or do the old Korean tactic of "you die, I die, we all die".
 
It's far too complicated. There's always the China factor. The South Korea factor. The Christian factor. The America factor.
It's one of those things that are completely unpredictable.
But no matter what happens, it is going to suck.
 
Stop giving NK aid and it will crumble like the Soviet Union. Sure millions will die but millions more will have freedom and better lives for generations to come.
 
the_13th_redneck said:
It's far too complicated. There's always the China factor. The South Korea factor. The Christian factor. The America factor.
It's one of those things that are completely unpredictable.
But no matter what happens, it is going to suck.
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Keeping in mind that I have never been there....
The situation in North Korea has sucked for the past 50 years and will keep sucking for the next 50 years.

All this aid nations give, so NK can keep building it's arsenal. Maybe if they invested in their people they wouldn't have to have the huge arsenal?
 
You can cut all the aid you want and they'll still get it somehow. Why? Because it is not in China's best interest to see North Korea crumble.
The real stuff keeping North Korea alive right now is the black market. Goods come in across the China - North Korea border.
So like I said, it's not that simple.
 
I'm quite surprised. Why is American money going to North Korea anyway?
The other explanation must be... somehow North Korea's stability is in the interest of the United States. Maybe both sides desire a North Korea to act as a buffer zone between China and the US (in South Korea and Japan).
 
A Can of Man said:
I'm quite surprised. Why is American money going to North Korea anyway?
The other explanation must be... somehow North Korea's stability is in the interest of the United States. Maybe both sides desire a North Korea to act as a buffer zone between China and the US (in South Korea and Japan).
Click to expand...
I am quite surprized someone who claims to live in South Korea does not know the US sends no money to North Korea.
It would seem to me that you would be aware of how much Humaitarian Food Aid S. Korea & the US try to supply to the North, although for the past year now North Korea has been refusing it.

Apparently as of now the US along with S. Korea is resuming food aid Sunday 14Th Korea time;
"For the first time in three years, the US has resumed food aid to North Korea, which is believed to be facing a severe famine this year....."

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=56113&sectionid=351020405
 
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Well, chugspunk, if you read the thread and did not take things out of context, I said "I am surprised that American money is going to North Korea" as a reply to folks complaining about American money going to North Korea.

Seriously. Go hug something. Stop being such a douche bag.
 
Chukpike said:
A Can of Man said:
I'm quite surprised. Why is American money going to North Korea anyway?
The other explanation must be... somehow North Korea's stability is in the interest of the United States. Maybe both sides desire a North Korea to act as a buffer zone between China and the US (in South Korea and Japan).
Click to expand...

I am quite surprised someone who claims to live in South Korea does not know the US sends no money to North Korea.
It would seem to me that you would be aware of how much Humanitarian Food Aid S. Korea & the US try to supply to the North, although for the past year now North Korea has been refusing it.

Apparently as of now the US along with S. Korea is resuming food aid Sunday 14Th Korea time;
"For the first time in three years, the US has resumed food aid to North Korea, which is believed to be facing a severe famine this year....."

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=56113&sectionid=351020405
Click to expand...

:shoothea:
A Can of Man said:
Well, chugspunk, if you read the thread and did not take things out of context, I said "I am surprised that American money is going to North Korea" as a reply to folks complaining about American money going to North Korea.

Seriously. Go hug something. Stop being such a douche bag.
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No, you did not.

Don't know whether you are drunk or on drugs, but I took nothing out of context. Copied your post in its entirety.
 
turn off the aid tap and watch them crumble...
Click to expand...

There is already much embargo on DPRK....
Have you ever asked the question, WTF NK have ever done to USA/Western countries??

Sure millions will die but millions more will have freedom and better lives for generations to come.
Click to expand...

Why millions deserve that death??
Why don't USA/West shows their concerns for the countries whose dictators are their ally........

The situation in North Korea has sucked for the past 50 years and will keep sucking for the next 50 years.
Click to expand...

You don't know what DPRK was 50 years back.... It was providing food and other aids to south in 60s and most of 70s
 
fuser said:
There is already much embargo on DPRK....
Have you ever asked the question, WTF NK have ever done to USA/Western countries??



Why millions deserve that death??
Why don't USA/West shows their concerns for the countries whose dictators are their ally........



You don't know what DPRK was 50 years back.... It was providing food and other aids to south in 60s and most of 70s
Click to expand...

Here is what absolutely amazes me the most...

If you go on a discussion board and discuss freeing the Afghan or Iraqi people from ruthless deaths of totalitarians and roaming gangs, America is the most evil, vile, world police, forcing its way of living on every innocent thing out there. We're cold, calculating, manipulating, war hungry bastards intent on our borders engulfing all who don't bow before us.

Talk about anything else at any other time, and it is, "Hey, why can't the USA provide MORE socialist freebies to everyone in the world, despite already being the number one donator of relief supplies and support, beating every other nation in the world by a factor of ten?"

You idjits make no sense to me. You scream murder at us when we DO help people, and you scream murder at us when you don't think we're doing ENOUGH to help people.

Well, here ya go:

1. NK is NOT our ally, twit.

2. Before biting the hand that feeds you because you're too weak to fight your own war, think about what happens when you whine about the taste.



You people astound me. Your logic fails, your arguments fail, your research fails... all you ever tout is what the media tells you to flap your gums about. And that makes you even MORE wrong.

You whine that we don't do enough... well, why don't you get off your ass and DO something about it? We didn't have a single bit of aid when we split from Britain, and we did it. We sent 'em packing because we have balls. And in war, balls are enough. The Afghans prove that day after day. The Africans proved it in WWII. North Vietnam proved it in the 1960's.

But you cannot get off your collective asses to lift a finger for yourselves. You're like spoiled children throwing a temper tantrum.

HINT: 100 assassins. At least one will get through. Problem solved. Who will step up to the plate?

No one, because they are all waiting for America to do it for them.

You're a 21-year old kid from India who doesn't know history or life's lessons - or apparently respect for the men and women on this board who actually wore the same uniform a few years ago and still do today that gave the world back from the most evil creature walking the planet back in 1942 to 1945.

You want to complain about America? Guess what, pal? It was American blood that was shed so you can sit here today and make a fool out of yourself. Funny, I don't remember India's name when we discuss Normandy.

You lose, kid. Scat. Or find some respect for the sacrifices made for you and yours and stick around.

AZ_Infantry... OUT

EDIT: Sentence structure.
 
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benaakatz said:
I think it's pretty well agreed upon that the situation in the north can't stay like this forever...in the long run something is going to change. My question to you guys is how do you think things will play out?

a) a war with the south/u.s.a. that radically changes the face of the peninsula
b) a leadership change/revolt of th people
c) the eventual total collapse of north korea, leaving the south to deal with the mess
d) no, the situation will go like this forever (the foreseeable future)
e) something else

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
The future of North Korea over the medium-run will be determined by a variety of forces and it would be tedious to attempt to trace through the multitudinous paths that the country might follow. It might be worthwhile to briefly sketch out a few end states that the country might reach in the next few years.

One can think of at least four end states, two of which would involve the maintenance of political stability in North Korea, one of which would involve a government change, and one of which would involve regime change.

#1 The most successful outcome, at least as measured as contributing to long-term regime stability, would be the successful implementation of economic reform. The examples of China and Vietnam have demonstrated the possibility of introducing reforms into centrally planned economies while maintaining regime stability for extended periods of time. The process of internal change could be reinforced by positive external developments that would support this process politically and financially. Of course in economic terms North Korea is dissimilar from China and Vietnam in important respects and, politically, it must deal with the divided-country issue, which could pose a difficult ideological challenge to would-be reformers in the North.

#2 In light of both the economic and political difficulties of implementing reforms in the North, a more cautious “muddling through” outcome is a distinct possibility. In this scenario, the North would engage in less internal change than in the previous example, and as a consequence, would presumably encounter a less supportive international environment. In essence this amounts to a continuation of the status quo.

#3 A third possibility could be generated by the unsuccessful implementation of economic reforms. In this case, deteriorating economic and political conditions could spur an intra-elite coup in which new leadership takes control in an attempt to save the regime. Kim Jong-il’s dramatically increased profile in the past two years would appear to reduce the likelihood of this outcome, by making it more difficult to establish a modus vivendi in which he would reign but not rule.

# 4 A final possibility is regime collapse. Mass mobilization, presumably in response to deteriorating economic conditions, would be a prerequisite for this to occur. The problem, of course, is that North Korea appears to lack the societal institutions to mobilize and channel mass discontent into effective political action. Again, this could occur in response to failed implementation of economic reform, or it might occur more or less spontaneously, if after a period of improvement in economic conditions (particularly the availability of food), North Korea were to experience another downturn, and system fraying began to occur as a coping mechanism. Given North Korea’s increasing aid dependency, particularly for food consumption, the behavior of foreign actors could be quite critical in this scenario.
 
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