:?: What do u think about this Afghanistan analysis - Page 2




 
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May 27th, 2004  
Eric
 
Excerpt from my website: Opinions!


"A Somali adage says…
"Me and Somalia against the world. Me and my clan against Somalia. Me and my family against my clan. Me and my brother against my family. Me against my brother."
An Afghan adage could have said the exact same thing and here we are at it again, trying to deliver our democratic model to a country that has a European middle age like social fabric.
(...)
It took 2800 deaths in New York to bring Afghanistan back to the foreground. The culprit, Bin Laden, the American creation of the 80s (Bin Laden and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar got their weapons from the US), was running its terror network from that country ruled by religious tyrants. It was time for the US to avenge its dead and money and weapons, again, bought the temporary alliance of some disgruntled ethnic groups left behind by the religious revolution.
And here we are again, backing up an imported friendly and corrupted government, dug in behind minefields and barbed wires in a few key fortified cities and chasing our creatures all the way to Pakistan, officially an ally but traditionally a safe heaven for the Mujahedeens. Bin Laden, and Hekmatyar, Harkat ul Mujahedeen, Hizbul mujahedeen, Al Badr and the Patchuns from the South, are raiding Afghan forces and killing Afghan officials that represent the “infidels”. In their “Madrassahs” (Quranic school), the Imans are issuing “fatwas” for another “Jihad” against another invader. Rejuvenated Talibans forces under the new leadership of Mullah Mohammed Assan and Qadir, reinforced by Al Queida members and Mujahadeens from all over are escalating guerilla war against American and Nato forces in the Eastern and Southern provinces.

“Me and Afghanistan against the Americans!”.
Exit the US and NATO, enter…
“One cannot buy Afghanistan. One can only buy it from somebody else!”
Once again, Afghanis are united against what they perceive as the bigger evil and as history unravels, their attacks are hitting the cities held by the occupying forces.
During their war against the Russian forces, the Mujahedeens excelled at keeping the cities insecure. Ambushes, limited hit and run operations against military or civilian targets, bombings, kidnapping and “hits” on military and political figures were regular occurrences that the Red Army could not prevent, especially in the major cities of Kandahar and Herat that the soviet finally bombed into rubbles, still failing to stop the urban guerrillas.
The future for Afghanistan might not be the one our forces and governments are planning. Fiercely independent and nationalists, Afghanis have shown through their most recent history that they only tolerate others to interfere with their domestic political chaos for a limited time. The Talibans have been ousted. To the Afghan eyes, they were just a little too extremists but the new Talibans under new leadership seem more adequate than foreign powers or corrupted “puppet regimes”.
Is it time for the US led forces to let the traditional power players resume their role of balance in the Afghan political anarchy?
Like Somalia, Afghanis know that westerners will leave, one way or another. When this day comes, Inch Allah, everything will return to normal, to a world they understand.

Afghanis are easy going, fatalist people. They also love to joke.
In Kabul, one of them told a French soldier that they really liked the French and that they would kill them last when the time to get rid of the foreign forces will come.
How touching!
May 27th, 2004  
RnderSafe
 
 
Quote:
Once again, Afghanis are united against what they perceive as the bigger evil and as history unravels, their attacks are hitting the cities held by the occupying forces.
The average Afghani citizen loves Americans/coalition partners. Their biggest concern/anger comes from realising the US did not have any intentions on staying and taking time to help rebuilding the country.

Quote:
Like Somalia, Afghanis know that westerners will leave, one way or another. When this day comes, Inch Allah, everything will return to normal, to a world they understand.
Back to normal you say .. would that be the normal before the Russians came? The normal where women went to university, wore bluejeans - where everyone listed to American/European music? Or the normal AFTER the US took the proper steps at luring the Russians in that destroyed one of the most progressive and Western countries in the Middle East?

There is no possible way to compare the Somalis with the Afghanis, two completely different countries, with completely different histories and therefore, two completely different Muslims.

I've been to both places, given the choice - I will happily take Afghanistan any day.
May 28th, 2004  
Pollux
 
i agree to Rndersafe
when the russians moved out of the county they left a chaos and a vacuum of power.
and the taliban were the first group that became powerfull enough to build something like a government..but even they did not control the whole country but only a smal part. so the rest still lived in chaos and civil war.
the taliban build up a fantatic religious dictatorship. they didnt even live after the koran they just took some parts and interpreted them in their own way. what led to, that fun was forbidden and women were beheaded in soccer stadiums.
the rest you know.
So the afghans that lived under the taliban terror love the foreign forces that keep up the stability. the afghans always were western oriented.
and those who live in and around the kabul area still are. but the rest lived for 30years in war. that is an whole generation. those people learned nothing in their life but to kill people. and some got really rich and powerful with renting their private armies and selling drugs.
It will take a lot of time to get this out of the peoples head. so they just cant behave in a different way, they just dont know one. of course that is no excuse, but i think we have to understand that.
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May 28th, 2004  
USMC Johnny
 
You guys want the opionion of someone that was actually in Afghanistan?

Well overall I would give our military a 7 out of 10. We did some very good stuff, and we also did some very stupid stuff.

First, we used the northern alliance to the fullest. Those guys are pure bad ass fighters.. They are loyal to their country and against the Taliban. They were good fighters and the did there job well. They didn't pull this duck and run crap that the Iraqi "Civil" defense people do, like when they hear 2 shots they run and hide.(So that would be a pro about how we handled it)

Secondly, and this is something that has happened in all of our conflicts since Vietnam. We are too bomb happy, what I mean by this is: We see something that "looks" questionable, and we bomb the shit out of it. Not thinking that their could be people up in those mountains. We lost so much support when we would do that. I mean how would you feel if you were going home and someone dropped a 2000lb on your house??? You be pissed as hell.. But hey war is hell, and the fog of war is even worse.(This is one of those things that happens, and is just totally messed up on both sides, everyone loses)

In closing, what I've heard from my buddies over there now. They normal Afghans standard of living has jumped 10 fold in the last 2 years. Yes war is hell, but if the war had not been waged, just think of the generations of Anti American people that could breed in that country.

So overall the war gets a 7 out of 10.

Still, and I must state this as clearly as I can... War is a horrible, nasty, hateful plague, that humanity should find the cure for. Wars can only be so just, and the invaders or the liberators can only be so right or so wrong. Sooner or Later the line gets blurred. War should not be fought but it is. (I'm not a peace freak by any means) But War is really not the answer, any soilder can agree with me on that.

To leave with a quote.

"War is young men dying, and Old men Talking"

Semper Fi
May 28th, 2004  
RnderSafe
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by USMC Johnny
You guys want the opionion of someone that was actually in Afghanistan?
I thought that's what I gave!

Good post, Johnny.
May 28th, 2004  
USMC Johnny
 
I love smart butt Admins.

They are like Drill Sergeants. You just gotta love them


May 28th, 2004  
Eric
 
rndrsafe wrote: "Back to normal you say "


Actually I said back to THEIR normality of war lords and fiefdom.... "...everything will return to normal, to a world they understand"...that is where Somalia and Afghanistan I believe are similar.

Sure they love us, in the cities we hold....small businesses are booming, carpets with Kalachnikov-tanks-war scenes are even sold on the Internet along with headscarves for Barbie dolls...I have a nice Kabul made stuffed camel that plays local music when you squeeze it and a bear in desert camo uniform singing "who let the dogs out". I got tons of baseball caps with all the logos one need embroided in them...
These are just opportunistic businesses....they were there with the Brits, the Russians....and now us.
How long do you think it would take these guys to kick their women back in the kitchens after our departure ??? They never wore jeans or attended universities but in the controlled cities, under the Russians or our forces of today.
Nobody has ever ruled Afghanistan! It is a name on a country on a map....it is a 12th century France of battling opportunistic warlords!
Rndrsafe, you have been there, in both places and many other...would you go as a civilian attend their universities? They are a couple of these kind of places I went to and fell in love with...I would go back in a hearbeat in a military environment. Never as a tourist!
The point is well summarized in a 1860 book I have describing the French North African possessions, what is now Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco...
Warlords, ethnic groups, tribes but not really countries....The author said it would take hundred years of colonial occupation to bring them to a semblance of modernity and self rule!!! It took them a hundred bloody years to get independance and even today, that is 140 years later, these countries still have ways to go.
May 28th, 2004  
RnderSafe
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric
rndrsafe wrote: "Back to normal you say "


Actually I said back to THEIR normality of war lords and fiefdom.... "...everything will return to normal, to a world they understand"...that is where Somalia and Afghanistan I believe are similar.

Sure they love us, in the cities we hold....small businesses are booming, carpets with Kalachnikov-tanks-war scenes are even sold on the Internet along with headscarves for Barbie dolls...I have a nice Kabul made stuffed camel that plays local music when you squeeze it and a bear in desert camo uniform singing "who let the dogs out". I got tons of baseball caps with all the logos one need embroided in them...
These are just opportunistic businesses....they were there with the Brits, the Russians....and now us.
How long do you think it would take these guys to kick their women back in the kitchens after our departure ??? They never wore jeans or attended universities but in the controlled cities, under the Russians or our forces of today.
Nobody has ever ruled Afghanistan! It is a name on a country on a map....it is a 12th century France of battling opportunistic warlords!
Rndrsafe, you have been there, in both places and many other...would you go as a civilian attend their universities? They are a couple of these kind of places I went to and fell in love with...I would go back in a hearbeat in a military environment. Never as a tourist!
The point is well summarized in a 1860 book I have describing the French North African possessions, what is now Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco...
Warlords, ethnic groups, tribes but not really countries....The author said it would take hundred years of colonial occupation to bring them to a semblance of modernity and self rule!!! It took them a hundred bloody years to get independance and even today, that is 140 years later, these countries still have ways to go.
I know men in the backwoods of the US that expect their women to be barefoot and in the kitchen. They aren't allowed to vote, per their husbands wishes and they most certainly do not speak out of turn. Shall we dub the entire US based on certain rural areas? Afghanistan was a progressive country, normality for the masses before the Russians WAS Universities, movies and fun weekends.

Quote:
Rndrsafe, you have been there, in both places and many other...would you go as a civilian attend their universities? They are a couple of these kind of places I went to and fell in love with...I would go back in a hearbeat in a military environment. Never as a tourist!
Would I personally go to Afghanistan as a civilian? Yes. Would I go to Somalia? Hell no, and I would throw a fit if I had to go back with the military unless it was to evac the innocents that wanted to leave and bomb the rest to hell and back.

There are different factors at play in Afghanistan that those in Somalia. Afghanistan today, is fundementalist - they've had to endure others pulling the strings on the country as if it were a puppet, they've had to be players in a game they did not volunteer to play - and now we wish to sit back and call them barbarians. You made the comment they were united against what they percieve as a bigger evil .. they are not united in the least. For the most part, they mill about their days doing their own thing without any enforcement of law, without any working social construct. They are just there, existing. And it will continue to be that way until someone steps in and sets the standards.

The cities will conform, cities ALWAYS conform easier than rual areas. When you have a population living so close, it's easy to garner influence.
May 28th, 2004  
Carl_von_Clausewtiz
 

Topic: back on track?


I really like the amount of response for my humble topic however I just wanted to post a tiny little bitty note if anyone remembers, the question at hand is what do you think about this - http://clik.to/nacams Afghanistan analysis. (click to enter and then on the analysis tab and then click on the first analysis about Afghanistan) It is a rather long analysis (4-5pages) thats why im not posting it, however if any of u is into the theories pls let me know what u think.

PS
I'd post the exact link but that site appears weird and all the pages appear as: http://clik.to/nacams
June 2nd, 2004  
Eric
 
Sorry...got carried away...

Was that the topic:
Do we agree with the analysis that states:"The last, but of course not least aspect to be discussed consists of the forces used. This is where the supporters of the “new warfare” try to make a strong case. The US-led coalition used quite extensively the USAF capabilities along with intense intelligence gathering, small SOF executing covert operations and training opposition fighters. It is exactly this over-reliance on technological superiority mixed with low utilization of own forces and ever larger reliance on opposition forces that caused many to declare it as a new way of waging war – ultimately a new warfare. "

Modern History is full of examples of the use of this this type warfare. Nothing new here.
As far as Afghanistan goes, I agree that most of the people just "exist", like in so many countries that are ruled by ethnic groups, tribal rules or warlords. Before the Russians, the Kingdom wasn't a real democracy and it has never really been a democracy. Afghanistan is a new artificial country (1885 after 3 wars)) and Afghanis are not savages but like so many countries they are far from feeling like they belong to a country. 2 kings tries to modernize the country and one was deposed in 1929/30 and the other assassinated in the 30ies...Border crisis throughout history, a coup in 73, another in 78, invasion in 79 war, the Talibans, war...Maybe in the cities they had time for a "normal life"...
We are there now and modern softer Talibans pressuring the south...
Where do we go from now?