Okay, so do you think that the 10-20% figures of 1944's armament production in 1940 was because germany didn't have the resources? Why they had them in 1944?
Actually 44 was the absolute peak of German capability, even German tanks had lower grade steel, same tank produced in 43 would have a significantly better protection.
Do you think that they were mobilizing all resources they could in 1940? I cannot believe that.
Exactly, Hitler did not order to build new tanks in 1940, Wehrmacht did not expand fast at all, in 40-41 Germany is still significantly under its true production capacity in order to keep the population happy with goods.
All right, so lets see: in 1940 to 1942 AFV production increased from 1,800 to 4,200, then in 1943 it increased to 14,000 and 19,000 in 1944!
That would be because more factories were open and more efficient assembly lines were put up but again Germany had a finite amount of steel, rubber and other resources, while 44 is their peak notice how sharply production drops in 45 and thats even before their factories are moonscape or overrun, it wasnt just the question of having X factories to produce Y tanks, rubber and synthetic materials were in short supply, steel too.
And their european empire in 1941 didn't have the resources? Germany had more resources in early 1941 than in mid 1944, and in the latter period armament production was 4 to 6 times larger (in terms of planes and AFV).!
The problem again is that Germany did not begin to fully develop its industrial capacity untill 42, when you read up on Hitler you notice how German industry kept producing domestic goods to keep people happy, after the failure of Moscow and the Russian counteroffensive they shifted to full gear and reached peak production by 44 but by then resource shortages were already visible.
As for resources, their steel came from the Nordic countries, oil came from Romania and synthetic sources (and to a small degree from Austria) and it was just not enough, Germany has been constrained by natural resources more than simple industrial capacity, why do you think they invaded Russia?
The point is that in the first 40 months of the war germany was not producing what they could. This proved fatal in the long run. The question is: What if they had mobilized after France and Britain declared war on them instead of mobilizing after losing Stalingrad?
While i agree that Germans were not producing what they could you have to reallize that Germany was not America, the industrial shift could not be as fast due to specifics of industry organisation plus the big thing was to keep people happy, Hitler needed popular support and Germans loved him, he gave them homes, cars, free holidays and all that was taxing the industry.
So yes Germany was not at its full capacity untill 43/44 but no it could mobilise fully unless faced with stalemate or defeat and when it did it was already too late.
Also even if Germany would mobilise and attacked Russia with shall we say 8.000 tanks instead of 3.500, they would still get bogged down in the snow, they would still face a massively superior force of Russian divisions and Moscow would still be unlikely to get overrun since Russians proved at Stalingrad just how stubborn they were.