What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?




 
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What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?
 
December 3rd, 2011  
perseus
 
 

Topic: What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?


What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?
The parts which they have already left to the Afghan forces to administer provide a good pointer:

Quote:
The US pulled out of parts of Kunar last year, beginning the withdrawal process. What has happened in the province since then makes for grim reading.

The new roads are now pock-marked with craters left by militants who plant bombs targeting Western and Afghan forces.

The province is becoming more dangerous - UK aid worker Linda Norgrove was kidnapped on one of the main roads in Kunar last year and in the past few months an Afghan translator was also abducted from exactly the same area.

The stretch between Chaw Kay and Nur Gal has become a favourite haunt of militants seeking targets.

The Taliban now roam at will in some rural districts, ruling villages by night while the government exerts nominal power by day. Taliban radio stations broadcast daily and hypnotic chants exhorting jihad (holy war) dominate Kunar's airwaves.
Continue reading the main story
February 28th, 2012  
Jay
 
 
this is what i feared would happen and will happen in the iraq and afghanistan struggle involving the U.S. at this time Obama thinks that it's in HIS power to pull out all troops from the conflicting countries, what he does not account for is that because of the direct influences of his administration and bush's that came before the U.S. the middle eastern government now is extremely reliant on U.S. intervention. if Obama is re-elected later this year and pulls out the troops in the middle east their governments will easily fall to the taliban leaving our enemy in charge of possible nuclear warheads and other WMD's that we may not be prepared to handle.
February 29th, 2012  
brinktk
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay
this is what i feared would happen and will happen in the iraq and afghanistan struggle involving the U.S. at this time Obama thinks that it's in HIS power to pull out all troops from the conflicting countries, what he does not account for is that because of the direct influences of his administration and bush's that came before the U.S. the middle eastern government now is extremely reliant on U.S. intervention. if Obama is re-elected later this year and pulls out the troops in the middle east their governments will easily fall to the taliban leaving our enemy in charge of possible nuclear warheads and other WMD's that we may not be prepared to handle.

I disagree. I just left Iraq in Dec. and even though the ISF may not be on par with the US military, I think they are good enough for the situation they are in. If you've ever dealt with Arabs, you'll know what I mean by that. A 100% Coalition solution is far worse than a 50% Arab solution...

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, we are basically p!ssing in the wind. As long as the Afghan government continues to have unmolested corruption at all levels, and as long as the Pakistani ISI and military is complicit in allowing VEN groups to operate from their country we can effectively accomplish nothing. Trust me, if the terrorists get their hands on a WMD/Nuke we will find out. A lot of red flags are raised when something of these sorts goes missing. Not to mention a delivery system which would be almost impossible to either smuggle or obtain for them.

The US is not prepared to what is necessary to win, because to do so would mean essentially invading the border region of Pakistan, flooding the country with AT LEAST 250,000 more coalition troops, and pissing off the entire Muslem world even more than they are already. THEY HAVE TO FIX THIS, the Afghans, Arabs, Persians, etc. etc...we cannot and should not do it for them. I am convinced there will come a time when the people get tired of the BS and start throwing these idiots out. This will take time...and patience...something western countries tend to be quite weak at.

I think Iraq is much closer to achieving some sort of stability than Afghanistan. We did what we could...now it's up to them. The training wheels are off and they are riding it solo so far...I can only hope this continues.
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What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?
February 29th, 2012  
Jay
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by brinktk
I disagree. I just left Iraq in Dec. and even though the ISF may not be on par with the US military, I think they are good enough for the situation they are in. If you've ever dealt with Arabs, you'll know what I mean by that. A 100% Coalition solution is far worse than a 50% Arab solution...

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, we are basically p!ssing in the wind. As long as the Afghan government continues to have unmolested corruption at all levels, and as long as the Pakistani ISI and military is complicit in allowing VEN groups to operate from their country we can effectively accomplish nothing. Trust me, if the terrorists get their hands on a WMD/Nuke we will find out. A lot of red flags are raised when something of these sorts goes missing. Not to mention a delivery system which would be almost impossible to either smuggle or obtain for them.

The US is not prepared to what is necessary to win, because to do so would mean essentially invading the border region of Pakistan, flooding the country with AT LEAST 250,000 more coalition troops, and pissing off the entire Muslem world even more than they are already. THEY HAVE TO FIX THIS, the Afghans, Arabs, Persians, etc. etc...we cannot and should not do it for them. I am convinced there will come a time when the people get tired of the BS and start throwing these idiots out. This will take time...and patience...something western countries tend to be quite weak at.

I think Iraq is much closer to achieving some sort of stability than Afghanistan. We did what we could...now it's up to them. The training wheels are off and they are riding it solo so far...I can only hope this continues.

i would agree with you on a lot of what you are saying, however do you really expect Iraq to not fall off the wagon once or twice more, i only hope that when this happens the U.S. will give them the space to learn and try and recover before offering them a crutch like they did in the past.
March 1st, 2012  
Yossarian
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by brinktk
I am convinced there will come a time when the people get tired of the BS and start throwing these idiots out. This will take time...and patience...something western countries tend to be quite weak at.
Agreed, on that first bit however, fingers crossed that they don't throw out the old idiots and get a case of "this next guy has got it " Syndrome.

Also I am not surprised, American Policy makers don't have much patience in many things, when a Congressman or woman can get coffee in a matter of minutes, text home instantly and make a few phone calls all in about 10 minutes before voting on a matter such as the occupation of Afghanistan, then it shows through our culture, that we are tailored to be impatient.
March 1st, 2012  
brinktk
 
 
There is still a lot on the plate for Iraq to get through before they can focus on moving forward.

There is still quite a large rift between the Sunni's and the Shi'a. The Kurds don't really have any interest in the country outside of the Kurdish autonomous region. Iran has a lot of influence through their agents within the Shi'a population. VEN groups are still present and conducting acts of terror within their borders. To name a few...

I DO expect the Iraqi's to go through more difficult times. I know, and more importantly, they know difficult times are ahead of them. BUT, they do have a taste of modern society. Our culture has definitely rubbed off on the population under 30 years of age which represents over 60% of the population. They now have their cell phones and satellite TV and Xbox's. Much of the younger generation loves hip hop and many of them desire more freedom than has been traditionally allowed under Islamic law. This is the group that will bring change. This is the group that is protesting their corrupt and ineffective government. These are the ones that are seeking more education and a liberalization of the tribal and Islamic customs that have traditionally been so strong in this society. They needed those things to survive under Saddam...now I think they are realizing there is a bigger world out there that they are a part of and I am hoping that they join it.

fingers crossed...
March 2nd, 2012  
Jay
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by brinktk
There is still a lot on the plate for Iraq to get through before they can focus on moving forward.

There is still quite a large rift between the Sunni's and the Shi'a. The Kurds don't really have any interest in the country outside of the Kurdish autonomous region. Iran has a lot of influence through their agents within the Shi'a population. VEN groups are still present and conducting acts of terror within their borders. To name a few...

I DO expect the Iraqi's to go through more difficult times. I know, and more importantly, they know difficult times are ahead of them. BUT, they do have a taste of modern society. Our culture has definitely rubbed off on the population under 30 years of age which represents over 60% of the population. They now have their cell phones and satellite TV and Xbox's. Much of the younger generation loves hip hop and many of them desire more freedom than has been traditionally allowed under Islamic law. This is the group that will bring change. This is the group that is protesting their corrupt and ineffective government. These are the ones that are seeking more education and a liberalization of the tribal and Islamic customs that have traditionally been so strong in this society. They needed those things to survive under Saddam...now I think they are realizing there is a bigger world out there that they are a part of and I am hoping that they join it.

fingers crossed...
your statements about desiring more freedom is an interesting perspective on this issue, i never thought of it that way before but it does make sense, and it does add a new aspect to the Iraqi conflict.
March 3rd, 2012  
asma18
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay
this is what i feared would happen and will happen in the iraq and afghanistan struggle involving the U.S. at this time Obama thinks that it's in HIS power to pull out all troops from the conflicting countries, what he does not account for is that because of the direct influences of his administration and bush's that came before the U.S. the middle eastern government now is extremely reliant on U.S. intervention. if Obama is re-elected later this year and pulls out the troops in the middle east their governments will easily fall to the taliban leaving our enemy in charge of possible nuclear warheads and other WMD's that we may not be prepared to handle.
Fellows let us not get caught in maybes,Iraq had WMD, remember? The only way to fight the afghanis is the fortified villages,free fire zones and no local traffic on the roads between dusk and dawn.Or all villages brought down to the forts, protected, but no movement out of them after dark.Exactly like the poms used to defeat the C.Ts in malaya and what we should have done in Vietnam
March 3rd, 2012  
Padre
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by perseus
The parts which they have already left to the Afghan forces to administer provide a good pointer:


Continue reading the main story
I go in and out of optimism / pessimissim on Afghanistan. It's like three steps forward, and then two steps back (when our lads get murdered by the Afghan comrades who they've just trained and supported).

We've lasted longer and achieved more than the Russians did in the 80's, but at what cost?!

I think long term, the major cities (if you can call them that) will be secured, not pro-West but not fanatically anti-West either), but the out-posts will always be or will return to Taliban control with Al Qeda as welcomed guests should they want some turf to train and live on in Afghanistan.

I think then, that we need to pull ground troops out and just do specific targeting with drones or Air Forces or long range targeting from missiles.
March 3rd, 2012  
asma18
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by perseus
The parts which they have already left to the Afghan forces to administer provide a good pointer:


Continue reading the main story
The sooner our govts can be convinced that Islam wherever it is, is our enemy the better. There is WW3 on its way between the West and Islam, we had better be ready and no holding back, they wont. They are determined to destroy us and our way of life,when the U.S. did not do retalitory raids on Tehran after they took your embassy, that was when in their minds you are easy prey.The U.S. is reluctant to finish anything and it is going to bite all of us on the behind.In a big way.
 


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