What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan? - Page 4




 
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What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?
 
May 14th, 2012  
42RM
 

Topic: What happens when we leave Afghanistan?


What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?
Worst case scenario?
A weak Afghan regime with little legitimacy in a poor condition to face the numerous tribal militias that threaten to destabilize the status-quo. The state of mutual distrust between the slew of various tribal and ethnic groups with in the country threatens to further destabilize the situation—especially given that many of these ethnic groups spill over into neighboring states, which could find themselves dragged in to Afghan conflicts against their will. In addition, India, Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran all have interests—often competing—in Afghanistan, and are likely to jockey for influence within the weak country, which could potentially become the focal point for violent great-and-medium power conflict in Central Asia.
May 14th, 2012  
Yossarian
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 42RM
In addition, India, Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran all have interests—often competing—in Afghanistan, and are likely to jockey for influence within the weak country

True, but what if they are soley interested in projecting influence in this region soley because of 10 years of American and European presence here?

That would also make sense. Although I don't know what kind of resources Afghanistan has availible out side of black market retail worth exploiting.
May 15th, 2012  
hghlndr6
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yossarian
True, but what if they are soley interested in projecting influence in this region soley because of 10 years of American and European presence here?

That would also make sense. Although I don't know what kind of resources Afghanistan has availible out side of black market retail worth exploiting.
How 'bout 600+ million barrels of oil? And maybe 7 trillion CF natural gas.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...n-barrels.html
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What happens when the US leaves Afghanistan?
May 15th, 2012  
Yossarian
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hghlndr6
How 'bout 600+ million barrels of oil? And maybe 7 trillion CF natural gas.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...n-barrels.html

Right in the time of nick,

I was hoping for a helpful interjection here.

But still, fact remains, why wouldn't someone with a different idealogy from the U.S. or Western Europe wanna project infuence here "just cause"?

Been done before.
May 15th, 2012  
Der Alte
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 42RM
India, Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran all have interests—often competing—in Afghanistan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yossarian
True, but what if they are soley interested in projecting influence in this region soley because of 10 years of American and European presence here?
India.
India has strong strategic interest in Afghanistan. In fact, it is much more than Pakistan’s who has been busy destroying the cohesion of the Afghan society. In fact, the strategic interest goes beyond Afghanistan. It stretches to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in the west, even the eastern coast of Africa as the western-most border of this strategic space; to the east, it includes the Strait of Malacca and extends up to the South China Sea; to the north, it is comprised of Central Asia; and to the south, it reaches out to Antarctica. Africa is a significant link to all these areas.

Viewed broadly, India's interest in Afghanistan is just one element within India's larger desire to be able to protect its interests well beyond South Asia. India understands its strategic interest and is silently and diplomatically working systematically to safeguard it in the long run. The master stroke of Indian diplomacy to protect its strategic interest has been the construction of the Zaranj-Delaram Road and developing ChabaharPort. Both will unchain Afghanistan from its exclusive dependence on Pakistan and give India direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Second, India wants to retain Afghanistan as a friendly country because from there it can monitor the activities of Pakistan. It can also possibly nurture resources to influence activities in Pakistan. Pakistan is indulging in all type of tricks to deny India these opportunities. Getting rid of the jihadi elements from Afghanistan will be in India’s interest, besides giving it a vantage point to dominate Pakistan also in the strategic and diplomatic sense.

Pakistan.
Pakistan needs stability in Afghanistan to be able to gain the economic dividends of its geo-strategic location by acting as the transit route for South Asia’s trade with Central and West Asia, and to utilise the expensively constructed GwadarPort. On this stability depends TAPI, the gas pipeline from Turkmenistan bringing sorely needed energy to Pakistan. They also needs that stability to be able to check the rampant smuggling and the misuse of the Afghan Transit trade facility that brings more than $5 billion worth of smuggled goods and 33 per cent of Afghanistan’s opium production into Pakistan.

The driving force behind much of Islamabad’s foreign and defense policy is its concern with neighboring India. Throughout its history, Pakistan has feared either direct war with India or encirclement by its allies, and this has had a tremendous impact on its relations with neighboring Afghanistan. In order to prevent encirclement by India, Pakistan requires a friendly government in Kabul. This objective also serves Pakistan’s planning for a future war with India: in the event of an Indian invasion, the Pakistani Army would need to fall back to positions in and along the border with Afghanistan, and a friendly government in Kabul would provide this much-needed “strategic depth.”

In terms of its Afghan policy, this has meant that Islamabad has generally supported Pashtun Islamist parties, like Hezb-e Islami and the Taliban, as a counterweight to Indian-backed Tajik groups like the former Northern Alliance.


China.
Afghanistan's future is and always has been a most important issue for Beijing and has always surfaced in China's Pakistan policy. It is an open secret that China, in alliance with Pakistan, supported the Mujahedeen against the Soviet Union during the Afghan war and did not really collaborate with US efforts. China is starved of domestic raw materials and has been going outright to the resource fields in which its own workers will find employment.

There is an active plan for a quadrilateral freight rail road from Xinjiang in western China through Tajikistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan. This would extend their land connectivity to other power centres in Asia like Iran, and the greater Central Asian region. All these projects are to support China's western development plan and supplement its basic raw material requirement. Ultimately, China aims to develop Afghan gas and oil deposits.

President Hamid Karzai and his government are keen to bring China in and Beijing in return is happy to cultivate Karzai. The question, however, is how it achieves these objectives. It is true China is beginning to enjoy comfortable relationships with almost all groups and sections of the Afghan polity. China has huge political advantage in Afghanistan.

What China will be looking at in Afghanistan and through Afghanistan is to mainly dismantle the United States' long-term strategic interests in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Gulf Region, as well as Pakistan's future role in the United States' strategic calculus in the region.
May 15th, 2012  
Der Alte
 
Russia.
Back in 2001, in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist tragedy, the United States and its NATO allies established military bases in Central Asia and quickly drove the Taliban from power in Kabul. These developments were unsettling to Russian planners, who worried that Washington was gaining influence in the region at Moscow’s expense.

In recent years, Russian thinking has adjusted to the reality that the United States and its allies could not easily contain the Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan. By 2009, Russian leaders even started to grow concerned that the Obama administration might suddenly withdraw American forces from Afghanistan, thus leaving Russia alone to deal with the threat that a resurgent Taliban would pose to Central Asia and Russia itself. Accordingly, Moscow helped the United States put together the Northern Distribution Network, a re-supply route that facilitates the overland transit of non-lethal goods from Europe to Afghanistan.

While Moscow now supports the US/NATO position in Afghanistan, the Kremlin nevertheless is striving to differentiate Russia from the West in ways that Moscow hopes will boost its standing in the eyes of President Hamid Karzai’s administration in Kabul. US relations with Karzai have experienced a marked change in recent years. The Bush Administration strongly promoted Karzai, but the Afghan leader’s relations with President Obama have often been tense. Over the same period, Russian policy has sought to emphasize Moscow’s long-term interest in a stable Afghanistan

After an American departure from Afghanistan, Russia (probably along with India and Iran) can be expected to work to prevent the Pakistani-backed Taliban from reasserting control over all Afghanistan, just as they did in the 1990’s. How successful they can be in achieving this aim, though, may well depend on whether the United States abandons Afghanistan altogether as it did during the 1990s, or whether Washington actively works with Moscow and others to contain the Taliban and its Pakistani supporters.


Iran.
Iranian policy rests on the mindset that Iran is the guardian of Afghanistan’s Farsi speakers—Tajiks and Hazaras—and its Shias against an often intrusive Pashtun power.

It is important to note that the Iranian sentiment of guardianship is not shared with equal zest by Afghanistan’s Farsi speakers, or ethnic Hazaras and other Shias. Views towards Iran differ significantly in those crowds. Some are very friendly to Iran, perhaps because they either have some ties to Iran through education or when they were refugees, or because they are currently consuming Iranian literature and broadcasts. Others hold a deep distaste for Iran mainly for what they perceive as Iran’s dissemination of religiously charged “backwardness” in their communities through the elevation and support of Qum educated Ayatollahs.

Afghanistan is responsible for more than 90 percent of the world’s illicit opium production, and more than half of that product is smuggled across the Iranian-Afghan border.16 Furthermore, a third of Afghan heroin, which accounts for more than 90 percent of world supply, is trafficked through Iran.17 However, Iran is not just a transit point for these drugs as they are smuggled into the Middle East, Europe, and beyond. Iran itself has a significant drug problem, with at least three million opiate abusers in the country and the highest rate of opiate abuse in the world—about 2.8 percent of the population aged 15 to 64; and opiate abuse is rapidly rising.

Iran has committed itself to combating the drug epidemic within its borders, cracking down on domestic opium cultivation and interdicting drug shipments from Afghanistan. The Iranian authorities routinely make the largest seizures of opiates out of any country in the world. However, Iran realizes that it can never effectively deal with drug abuse among its own citizens unless something is done about opium production in neighboring Afghanistan. Thus, the government in Tehran has developed a constructive relationship with Kabul in the field of counternarcotics, though questions remain about Iran’s role in impeding Afghanistan’s entry into the safron market as an alternative to the poppy crops.
September 12th, 2012  
USAgirl
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by brinktk
I disagree. I just left Iraq in Dec. and even though the ISF may not be on par with the US military, I think they are good enough for the situation they are in. If you've ever dealt with Arabs, you'll know what I mean by that. A 100% Coalition solution is far worse than a 50% Arab solution...

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, we are basically p!ssing in the wind. As long as the Afghan government continues to have unmolested corruption at all levels, and as long as the Pakistani ISI and military is complicit in allowing VEN groups to operate from their country we can effectively accomplish nothing. Trust me, if the terrorists get their hands on a WMD/Nuke we will find out. A lot of red flags are raised when something of these sorts goes missing. Not to mention a delivery system which would be almost impossible to either smuggle or obtain for them.

The US is not prepared to what is necessary to win, because to do so would mean essentially invading the border region of Pakistan, flooding the country with AT LEAST 250,000 more coalition troops, and pissing off the entire Muslem world even more than they are already. THEY HAVE TO FIX THIS, the Afghans, Arabs, Persians, etc. etc...we cannot and should not do it for them. I am convinced there will come a time when the people get tired of the BS and start throwing these idiots out. This will take time...and patience...something western countries tend to be quite weak at.

I think Iraq is much closer to achieving some sort of stability than Afghanistan. We did what we could...now it's up to them. The training wheels are off and they are riding it solo so far...I can only hope this continues.
I always support what my military wants to do, if they are over there and think they are making a difference, then I am in and am willing to suffer the cost, but what I am not willing to do is put the military over there and tie their hands behind their backs so they can't do the job.

And now you have Afgan soldiers turning on the US military!!! Can't trust them. In the end we will be fighting the people we trained.
September 12th, 2012  
Capt Frogman
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by USAgirl
And now you have Afgan soldiers turning on the US military!!! Can't trust them. In the end we will be fighting the people we trained.
One might say that the Americans instigated it....

It's not just the US military. All ISAF/NATO troops have taken hits.
September 15th, 2012  
USAgirl
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capt Frogman
One might say that the Americans instigated it....

It's not just the US military. All ISAF/NATO troops have taken hits.

We instigated Afganistan soldiers turning on the US military that trained them?

So the British fort was just attacked, I think two American soldiers killed and the Taliban are after Prince Harry, they want to take him hostage, do you think the Brits instigated that because they dare to be in that country? I pray they dont get him and do to him what was done to that poor American in Lybia.
September 16th, 2012  
Capt Frogman
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by USAgirl
We instigated Afganistan soldiers turning on the US military that trained them?

So the British fort was just attacked, I think two American soldiers killed and the Taliban are after Prince Harry, they want to take him hostage, do you think the Brits instigated that because they dare to be in that country? I pray they dont get him and do to him what was done to that poor American in Lybia.
I believe the base was attacked in response to the US Islam video....
 


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