What is the future for Libya now?

perseus

perseus

Active member
It seems that regime change is almost complete in Libya, after a rare co-ordinated assault on Tripoli by the various rebel factions, which seems to have taken everyone by surprise. Perhaps NATO had something to do with this or is that in itself contradictory!

Will Libya fare any better than Iraq? Some political analysts claim it is nothing more than a collection of tribes. Will the West demand compensation for the military cost via oil generating cynicism of the true motives? What will happen to Qaddafi and his sons, measured justice at the International court of human justice at the Hague or a Saddam like end via the rope?
 
perseus said:
Perhaps NATO had something to do with this or is that in itself contradictory!
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It is unlikely that the rebel forces are fighting on their own. Watch for any signs of special operations forces from participating NATO countries quietly leading the offensive and preparing operations.
 
42RM said:
It is unlikely that the rebel forces are fighting on their own. Watch for any signs of special operations forces from participating NATO countries quietly leading the offensive and preparing operations.
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Yes, I rwad an article a few months ago about how SAS had been inserted into some of the tribal areas to make contact with the Brega Tribesmen there (for supply missions). So I'll wager OPFOR is there (and has been for awhile) keeping a low profile.

On a related note, the French have admitted to supplying small arms to the Rebels in the same area (Brega), so the fact SAS was there earlier might not have been a coincidence.
 
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perseus said:
Will Libya fare any better than Iraq?
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Rather than an Iraqi-style insurgency, perhaps a bigger concern is that the situation in Libya could become similar to those seen after the overthrow of the regimes in Somalia in 1991 and Afghanistan in 1992. In those cases, the factions that took down the incumbent governments began fighting with one another — and some of the remnants of the former regimes — in a free-for-all battle for control after failing to agree on a power-sharing formula.
 
Libya will devolve into another dictatorship of some sort. The various rebel groups will fight each other for power. One will reign supreme and will crush the others with secret police, etc.... The American Experiment is a rare thing.

I truly believe that the majority fared better under American and European Colonialism. Africa, some parts of Asia, and some parts of the Middle East. Didn't have ethnic cleansing, rebel factions, etc....

I have to say that South America has done pretty good for the majority of it's modern history. Yeah, there have been civil wars and communists revolutionaries (that need to get wiped off the face of the Earth) but for the most part South America is pretty civilized.
 
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As the experiences of recent years in Iraq and Afghanistan have vividly illustrated, it is far easier to depose a regime than it is to govern a country. History is replete with examples of coalition fronts that united to overthrow an oppressive regime but then splintered and fell into internal fighting once the regime they fought against was toppled.​
 
A rubble of a rebellion are suddenly well coordinated and well carried out.
I wonder how THAT came to be.

Two ways that place can go.

1. A country where power is shared amongst the tribes in some sort of tribal system.
2. Up shits creek without a paddle.

The number one option CAN work if the surrounding world keep true to their word and only support the people realizing that the powersharing is best for their nation.
But I reckon companies will start bidding for contracts playing different tribes against one and other untill the place erupts in total anarchy.

Only time will tell.

KJ sends..
 
it remains to be seen

iraq looked pretty f***ed for a while but now its steadily building a future. so i think whatever happens in libya and egypt and syria will take a while to play out and we will ahve to wait and see what happens.


i see iran trying to exert influence to have things stay the same they dont want mopre democratic states in the area to eventually rile up their people to the same point that the arabs currently and really enact change

any change is good, and is really needed, in libya, syria, and to a different degree, in egypt
 
Outside influence exploiting regional and tribal fault lines is also a potential danger in Libya. Egypt is a relatively powerful neighbor that has long tried to meddle in Libya and has long coveted its energy wealth. While Egypt is currently focused on its own internal issues as well as the Israel/Palestinian issue, its attention could very well return to Libya in the future. Italy, the United Kingdom and France also have a history of involvement in Libya.​
 
I see Libya going down the path of another dictatorship. They have tribal issues but they're educated. But because of tribal issues and foreign fornication. The Libyan people will be screwed again.
 
Libya's future ...

Personally, I look for a short period of civil unrest with the possibility of a civil war to determine who will end up ruling Libya. As far as outside interference, I look for Iran (and NATO), to try to influence the type of governing body that will emerge from the violent stages. More than likely, there will end up being military rule, with ANOTHER General taking Gaddafi's place. [There is still a possibility of civilian rule though].

As far as Gaddafi and his sons, they will most likely be killed. If captured, I don't look for them to be tried outside of Libya (even though they could be tried for crimes against humanity before the tribunal in the Hague) ... I believe they will be tried by Libyans, found guilty and be executed - (whoever takes power, won't dare allow ANY of the Gaddafi males to live and become a danger to the new regime).

The history of Gaddafi's 40+ years of rule, are laced with a history of violence towards his own countrymen, where he and his sons are known ro have been involved with crimes against humanity. This alone, will lead to guilty findings and their executions.

Bottom line - with Gaddafi and his sons out of the picture, Libya stands a chance of becoming a country where civilians can determine their own destinies (if another dictator doesn't take power).
 
It could be another Dictator, but then again the Libyans really do look keen to have some sort of representative government. They might have a chance.
 
What happens next largely depends on the level of leadership that the country gets, with a good free leadership they could do very well with the resources that they have. If they wind up with another Dictator then he will line his pockets at the publics expense.
 
It seems to me that a number of lessons emerge from all this.

1. It is important to remember that Libya in itself may not be important to the world, but it matters to Libyans a great deal.

2. Do not assume that tyrants lack support. Gadhafi didn’t govern Libya for 42 years without support.

3. Do not assume that the amount of force you are prepared to provide is the amount of force needed.

4. Eliminating the option of a negotiated end to the war by the means of international courts may be morally satisfying, but it causes wars to go on and casualties to mount. It is important to decide what is more important — to alleviate the suffering of people or to punish the guilty. Sometimes it is one or the other.

5. The most important, do not kid the world about wars being over. After George W. Bush flew onto an aircraft carrier that was emblazoned with a “mission accomplished” banner, the Iraq war became even more violent, and the damage to him was massive. Information operations may be useful in persuading opposing troops to surrender, but political credibility bleeds away when the war is declared over and the fighting goes on.
 
Personally as cruel as it sounds I don't give a damn what happens in Libya because I don't own stock in BP and its none of my business.

Libya has gas and that makes the world care. It bodes better for its future than say... The Ivory Coast or Liberia.

Wont it be interesting to watch in our lifetime as the gas and oil run out and people begin fighting for more significant commodities like water?

Look at the globe and see if you can predict where the wars for survival will play out. China is already altering the course of the water that feeds the Ganges...
 
They've already done it and have plans to slice a bit more off, here and there as they see fit. They've blasted away enough rock to change the run-off on some mountains so the spring thaw brings water to China and not India anymore.

Don't worry Suez will come to the rescue... for a price.
 
bulldogg said:
Personally as cruel as it sounds I don't give a damn what happens in Libya because I don't own stock in BP and its none of my business.

Libya has gas and that makes the world care. It bodes better for its future than say... The Ivory Coast or Liberia.

Wont it be interesting to watch in our lifetime as the gas and oil run out and people begin fighting for more significant commodities like water?

Look at the globe and see if you can predict where the wars for survival will play out. China is already altering the course of the water that feeds the Ganges...
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The ChiComs are going to own the 21st Century. They have studied what made the great powers of the past and are doing the same with a twist. They aren't developing a conscious and they don't give a damn about anyone else. The ChiComs are getting ready for a smack down on resources and also are doing business with anyone for what they want. They don't care if their customers ethnically cleanse half of their population as long as they pay on time.

There are those in this world that have power and those that don't. The USA is losing it's power not because of someone stronger then us but because of weakening ourselves through liberalism and socialist ideals. We need to start worrying about ourselves and stop giving a damn about the rest of the world. If we're going to be involved in Libya it shouldn't because because we want to export freedom of democracy. It should be so we can get oil and shore up our interests in the region.
 
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