Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
May 1, 2007
Even as the U.S. Marines prepare to deploy the first MV-22 squadron to Iraq in the coming months, defense analysts are still debating whether the tilt-rotor aircraft is the technological leap the service says it is.
An even those who applaud the Marines' deployment decision remain uncertain about some of the production expectations for the Osprey. Cost and especially capability are pillars that buttress the Marines' support for the V-22. The service says the Ospreys will save it money it will no longer have to spend on the upkeep of its aging helicopter fleet.
And the Ospreys will enable the Marines to do the kind of missions they can do now, and do them more safely and efficiently, they say.
Those comparisons have invited criticism.
"Critics argue that the V-22's performance should be compared to contemporary aircraft (such as the EH-101), not one that is 30 years old," reports Congressional Research Service military aviation analyst Christopher Bolkcom in his March briefing on the Osprey. "When compared to contemporary helicopters, critics argue, the V-22's capabilities don't appear nearly as impressive."
Other analysts, such as the Teal Group, say the V-22 has proven itself and the debate needs to move on.
"Teal believes in the technical side of this program," the analyst reported in its April briefing released this week. "Or, at least, we don't have the full information needed to doubt it."
For the Teal Group, the question is money.
"The only serious remaining questions concern the budget," the April report says. "New programs, especially expensive ones, face a difficult budget future. "It does not help that Osprey unit costs have hit 70 something million; that's a great source of cash and political notoriety," the report says.
Besides, the report says, the aircraft is already in production and 200 Ospreys, MV-22s, is a good minimum, the Teal Group argues. As for the 360 the Marines want, the Teal Group gives the service a 3-1 shot.
"There is still talk of a multiyear procurement contract," the Teal Group says. "We think it has a very good chance. Plus-ups might continue for another year or two also."
Special Operations Command will be good for another 50-plus aircraft, too, the Teal Group says. "The Navy could get 40 MV-22s for support and rescue (it no longer wants HV-22s), although the service is focusing its requirements around the MH-60R/S and E-2 for now, and doesn't plan to make a V-22 decision until 2010 or beyond," the report says.
The idea of the Air Force getting some combat SAR Ospreys to replace its HH-60G fleet looks dormant, replaced by the difficult CSAR-X program and the problematic HH-47 decision. But if the CV-22 matures as planned, they could easily take away some of that mission, the report says.
--Michael Fabey
May 1, 2007
Even as the U.S. Marines prepare to deploy the first MV-22 squadron to Iraq in the coming months, defense analysts are still debating whether the tilt-rotor aircraft is the technological leap the service says it is.
An even those who applaud the Marines' deployment decision remain uncertain about some of the production expectations for the Osprey. Cost and especially capability are pillars that buttress the Marines' support for the V-22. The service says the Ospreys will save it money it will no longer have to spend on the upkeep of its aging helicopter fleet.
And the Ospreys will enable the Marines to do the kind of missions they can do now, and do them more safely and efficiently, they say.
Those comparisons have invited criticism.
"Critics argue that the V-22's performance should be compared to contemporary aircraft (such as the EH-101), not one that is 30 years old," reports Congressional Research Service military aviation analyst Christopher Bolkcom in his March briefing on the Osprey. "When compared to contemporary helicopters, critics argue, the V-22's capabilities don't appear nearly as impressive."
Other analysts, such as the Teal Group, say the V-22 has proven itself and the debate needs to move on.
"Teal believes in the technical side of this program," the analyst reported in its April briefing released this week. "Or, at least, we don't have the full information needed to doubt it."
For the Teal Group, the question is money.
"The only serious remaining questions concern the budget," the April report says. "New programs, especially expensive ones, face a difficult budget future. "It does not help that Osprey unit costs have hit 70 something million; that's a great source of cash and political notoriety," the report says.
Besides, the report says, the aircraft is already in production and 200 Ospreys, MV-22s, is a good minimum, the Teal Group argues. As for the 360 the Marines want, the Teal Group gives the service a 3-1 shot.
"There is still talk of a multiyear procurement contract," the Teal Group says. "We think it has a very good chance. Plus-ups might continue for another year or two also."
Special Operations Command will be good for another 50-plus aircraft, too, the Teal Group says. "The Navy could get 40 MV-22s for support and rescue (it no longer wants HV-22s), although the service is focusing its requirements around the MH-60R/S and E-2 for now, and doesn't plan to make a V-22 decision until 2010 or beyond," the report says.
The idea of the Air Force getting some combat SAR Ospreys to replace its HH-60G fleet looks dormant, replaced by the difficult CSAR-X program and the problematic HH-47 decision. But if the CV-22 matures as planned, they could easily take away some of that mission, the report says.
--Michael Fabey
