US Role in the Coming World Order

[Peter Pan]

There is a great flux in the international order, currently and beyond.

Four issues encompass the same:

1. Globalisation of world economy.
2. Rise of fundamentalism in all religions.
3. Growing insecurity.
4. The security role of the sole global superpower.

Economic growth and globalization will coalesce the world, but unequal competition might produce disorder as will the rapid growth in some countries from the ‘Stone Age’ to the “Rocket Age’. The have-nots may employ means what is called ‘non-state actors’, importantly the terrorists.

The terrorists could be of the semi centralized AQ type or footloose cannons.

Terrorism has not only visited the US but earlier was and is rampant in Asia, fuelled by religious fanatics. Europe and Russia too are not free of this vermin.

Divergent national interests, causative of the end of the Cold War has given rise to the quest to form new alliances of convenience (eg EU Defence and the European cosying up with China). This may negate a common world policy in tackling these elements

These non traditional alliances is diluting the US role in the world order, especially in the global policeman role since the US strategic reach (an essential ingredient in the global superpower status) manifest in the bases of the transatlantic alliance, which is showing signs of being frayed at the edges.

The US dependence on foreign oil supplies also makes it more vulnerable as the competition for secure access grows and the risks of uninterrupted supply increase. Radical politics makes the Middle East a tinderbox.

An Arab Israeli conflict resolution would foster greater affinity of the Arab world towards Europe, which has been favorable to the Arabs over the Israelis. This would further dilute the US pivotal position to maintain her role as the ‘sole global superpower’.

Notwithstanding, Middle East could still embody instability owing to the clash of civilsation and be a fertile ground for the spread of terrorism as also proliferation of WMD since not only Iran has the knowhow, but it is alleged that Saudi Arabia and Syria are also nuclear threshold capable.

Rapid changes are taking place in Asia in the form of surging economies, military and technological advancement. This will increase the competition between them and could lead to conflict in the quest for regional supremacy.

The Korean and Taiwanese issues are rapidly emerging as a challenge to the US hegemony making it a necessity for Japan to play a more leading and important role in the area. This is possible only by changing the Japanese Constitution, which is not readily acceptable to its pacifist population nor to its neighbours, haunted by Japan’s militarist past.

Africa may continue to remain instable. The vast untapped geological resources is ideally lucrative for global players to profit through instability since satraps are more amenable to lures of personal glory and profit than democratic and established govt.

That being the perceived world scenario, it must also be remembered that no country is within the striking distance to overhaul the US in any of the spheres that hallmarks a global superpower, be it military, the strategic reach or economy.

In such a scenario, what would be the role of the US and how should it iron out the global imbalances to bolster her position as the sole global superpower?

 

[godofthunder9010]

I believe you are vastly overstating the dominance of the USA in the world. Most of that dominance is granted and by a general sense of trust, and could easily be taken away by the world community.

The USA vs the World === the USA loses.

We just don't see that because the USA doesn't do anything blatantly horrible or obviously unjust. Iraq has shaken the faith of the World Community, regardless of whether it was right or wrong.

 

[Peter Pan]

I believe you are vastly overstating the dominance of the USA in the world. Most of that dominance is granted and by a general sense of trust, and could easily be taken away by the world community.

The USA vs the World === the USA loses.

We just don't see that because the USA doesn't do anything blatantly horrible or obviously unjust. Iraq has shaken the faith of the World Community, regardless of whether it was right or wrong.

That is not the point.

I have just given the situation that is evolving. Now it is for you to contribute to the thread and not attack the messenger.

Unlike you (if I got it right), I don't think that the world has moved away from the US. It is just that the large majority do not see the same way as the US only in Iraq. Even that should change, if things work out.

And this is not an anti US thread. The first post just gives the situation in the world and asks what is to be done to maintain a credible superpower status in this slowly emerging conflict areas. That is all.

 

[godofthunder9010]

My point was, the USA is already weaker and less influential. As the world situation evolves, it is a pretty safe bet that the USA's power and influence will continue to slowly diminish. The USA's role as the sole superpower cannot last for long, IMHO.

Much of what you are putting forward is difficult to respond to because much of it makes assumptions about what direction the world is going. If history teaches us anything at all, it certainly teaches us that the unexpected or bizarre can happen at the most unexpected times, from unexpected sources.

Some unforseeable sequence of events may happen that will guarantee that the USA will be the most powerful nation on the planet for the next 1000 years. Something similar might happen that will guarantee Superpower status to Indonesia.

So if things keep going the way they are going?

China will probably do something drastic somewhere and touch off a massive bloody conflict in Southeast Asia. Probably either over Taiwan or Japan or both. What happens next there is anybody's guess and far too messy to try to predict.

The Middle East will continue to be a hotbed for growing fundamentalist groups. The nations of that region will continue to remain unstable and under-developed. Feuds and rivalries between the nations, tribes and ethnic groups of that region will continue to cripple them from achieving any true power. Oil will keep the rest of the world deeply involved until there isn't anymore left.

India and Pakistan will continue their bitter relations and border skirmishes. It very likely will escalate to something very very terrible ... eventually.

Russia will bottom out and begin to recover and rebuilt itself, as will the other nations that were previously part of the USSR. As a coalition of nations, their power will increase steadily, but will probably never come close to equalling their former status and power.

About 1/4 of the population of Africa will die of AIDS. Africa will remain unstable indefinitely, except for a handful of countries.

Latin America will remain unstable.

Nobody will immigrate to Antartica.

 

[Peter Pan]

Thank you.

I apologise. I misunderstood your post.

Fine, lets take the easy things first.

Let's look at Europe.

1. What is to be done to bring Europe back to being one entity and focussed as it was before.

2. What is to be done to Russia so that it does not feel that the West is attempting to encircle her as also diminishing the natural leadership of Russia over the erstwhile Soviet states?

3. How can the European economy be brought to work in tandem with the US economic goals?

Nobody will immigrate to Antartica.

For the sake of discussion lets take the time specturm tto be till 2020 in all cases of Post No 1.

 

[Doppleganger]

There is one thing you have missed, which is the effect of the possible muslimification of Western Europe. This could have a fundamental effect on the policies of one of the most influential and richest areas of the planet.

http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1056046/posts

The above link is interesting and alarmist, but I'm not sure whether things will exactly come to pass as it postulates. I would like to state that the above link does not reflect my own opinion, but it's quite revealing nonetheless.

 

[Missileer]

Thank you.

I apologise. I misunderstood your post.

Fine, lets take the easy things first.

Let's look at Europe.

1. What is to be done to bring Europe back to being one entity and focussed as it was before.

2. What is to be done to Russia so that it does not feel that the West is attempting to encircle her as also diminishing the natural leadership of Russia over the erstwhile Soviet states?

3. How can the European economy be brought to work in tandem with the US economic goals?

Nobody will immigrate to Antartica.

For the sake of discussion lets take the time specturm tto be till 2020 in all cases of Post No 1.

What time period are you asking about in no. 1? The only time I've known
of Europe being focused was when it was at war with a common enemy.

As for no. 2, Russia refuses to meet anyone half way on anything. Glasnost was the last communications breakthrough concerning the West. I think paranoia is a national trait.

No. 3, could you elaborate on what you mean by US economic goals as they relate to Europe?

 

[Dark Ventrue]

1. What is to be done to bring Europe back to being one entity and focussed as it was before.

First of all EU needs to stop arguing. they must get one currency and all nations in the EU must except the EU constitution that has been drawn up.

2. What is to be done to Russia so that it does not feel that the West is attempting to encircle her as also diminishing the natural leadership of Russia over the erstwhile Soviet states?

Give the space to manoeuver and perhaps the world should stop interfering in Russian internal affairs.

3. How can the European economy be brought to work in tandem with the US economic goals?

Good question. Even if the US and European countries are friends they are very different in leadership, culture you name it.
Perhaps something simple would help. They produce what we needs we buy or vice versa.

 

[godofthunder9010]

3. How can the European economy be brought to work in tandem with the US economic goals?

They are already heavily interlinked. The USA and Europe and their respective economies are extremely interrelated. Are we exploring how to increase this interdependence?

 

[Sexybeast]

it is more like a multi-super power world in the future, rather than U.S is the king of the world

 

[Peter Pan]

There is one thing you have missed, which is the effect of the possible muslimification of Western Europe. This could have a fundamental effect on the policies of one of the most influential and richest areas of the planet.

http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1056046/posts

The above link is interesting and alarmist, but I'm not sure whether things will exactly come to pass as it postulates. I would like to state that the above link does not reflect my own opinion, but it's quite revealing nonetheless.

Thank you.

Indeed, that is an important input and that should also be considered and the ways evolved where immigrants do not impose their culture over the native culture of the country (the way France is trying).

And what is the effect of immigrant culture that is going unchecked as in Britain.

If the political correctness becomes a runaway horse, then it will surely skew the whole world equation.

This commentary is also interesting.

"Washington will be increasingly uncomfortable with the challenges that Western Europe's more independent posture poses to its leadership. But in the final analysis the Community's growing unity can be an enormous asset for the United States if a new basis for cooperation between America and Europe on economic and defense matters can ... "

This is from the book Redefining Europe and the Atlantic Link
Robert D. Hormats

Robert D. Hormats is Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs International. He was Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs in 1981 and 1982, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 1978 to 1981, and Senior Staff Member for International Economic Affairs on the National Security Council staff in the early 1970s.

 

[Whispering Death]

First off, Al Qaida is a very very decentralized outfit.
Secondly, U.S. has never had a hegemony in Asia. As you are seeing right now, the U.S. policy is to make N.Korea deal with the Chinese. Basically we are saying "China, clean up your own back yard." They are the dominant power in that region and the involvement of the U.S. is to keep that dominant power in check.

 

[Knightraptor]

I think that Aide and Relief operations will still be dependant on the USA. I mean look at the Tsunami Disaster. But, I really don't know.

 

[Peter Pan]

First off, Al Qaida is a very very decentralized outfit.
Secondly, U.S. has never had a hegemony in Asia. As you are seeing right now, the U.S. policy is to make N.Korea deal with the Chinese. Basically we are saying "China, clean up your own back yard." They are the dominant power in that region and the involvement of the U.S. is to keep that dominant power in check.

Since we don't know much about the AQ (at least through open sources), it would be a tad difficult to pinpoint is heirachy and control over others. I think the US NIC 2020 opines semi centralised. I take it for whatever that is worth.

US has no hegemony per se in Asia. But it does have immense influence in the events in Asia. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are in the sphere of influence and these countries have a key role in the strategic perspective.

That apart, to vector on to Europe.

How best can the US allay the Russian fear of being encircled? This is a key issue since Russia can play a major role to destabilise the old Soviet states that are now Independent.

It is important to take the Russian aspect into consideration since already it is playing Iran against the US.

France's economy seems to be on the move, even though slightly (as per the CNBC) and she is trying to exert herself in the EU. Germany, if she stabilises economically, then she has tremendous potential as a major European nation (wonder when she will stabilise though). UK's election will be key issue.

Therefore, inspite of this flux, how can the US influence the EU (the former Warsaw Pact countries are firmly behind the US) to strengthen the Europe US equation, and even if they disagree in so far as Iraq, at least have a common platform of address for the remainder of the world.

That US and EU shape global destiny, of that there is no doubt.

Islamisation will also affect the countries of Europe since they would not like to have an internal security problem that is out in the open i.e. armed insurrection of a light variety (if there is anything like that).

 

[Whispering Death]

No we know a lot about how AQ operates. In 9/11 they picked a small team to execute a plan, they where individually smuggled into the ocuntry and operated in small groups who reported no higher than to their team leader. Even before they got into the U.S. they where no longer under Osama Bin-Laddin. Also look at the terorrists in the Phillipines, quite a different batch than the Saudis; completely different MO, warfare style, culture, not much direct contact with OBL to speak of yet they are still connected with AQ.

Madrid Train bombings where more the standard flashy AQ MO, and this coroborates what we know about AQ through 9/11. The higher ups create the plan, pick the team, and finance, and they send the team to go off autonomously to try and fulfill the plan as best they can.

Al-Zarqawi claims to be an AQ operative now but we know of no affiliation between him and OBL. His MO is way different than what we think of as the standard AQ MO or even the AQ-sponsored MO like in the Philpines.

Very decentralized.

 

[godofthunder9010]

it is more like a multi-super power world in the future, rather than U.S is the king of the world

That depends on your opinion. Is the USA actually king of the world now? I believe that they only manage to appear to be based 100% on a delicate balancing act. The USA intervenes in situations where they are able to tip the balance. The USA is in excellent geographical position to play the game that way. They are able to intervene in situations involving countries weaker than them becoming a threat to the USA or others.

The USA absolutely cannot just (agressively) walz into China or India or Europe uninvited -- that is not counting nukes. The USA has the freedom of movement, diplomatic ties and military might to be the most powerful influencing nation on the planet. But if I am king, shouldn't I have the power to forcably put my subjects back into line?

 

[Whispering Death]

This idea of U.S. being king is very odd... I can't think of one time in history this has been the case. Now instead of 2 superpowers you have the U.S. and a variety of smaller powers filling the vacum left by the Soviet Union. You know what I see in the future? I see some of these rivaling powers (EU, Russia, China, India) getting into tangles as they try to vie for the piece of the power pie that the U.S. doesn't occupy.

 

[Peter Pan]

I think that we can leave this 'King' issue not nettle serious discussion, notwithstanding how sentimental that rationale be on either sides.

A discussion would be more fruitful devoid of 'name calling' (if that is the word I want?). The same sentiment could be expressed with some inputs that would achieve the prupose as also educate or awaken.

It is not that I wish to hector, but I am am very keen to know what others around the world feel and ways out of this rather interesting situation without resorting to war and with the interest of all nations more or less intact.

That was the rationale why I raised this thread.

I sure would feel a bit sad if this goes the same way my last thread went - like an fighter aircraft hit by the enemy - in flames!

 

[godofthunder9010]

I think that we can leave this 'King' issue not nettle serious discussion, notwithstanding how sentimental that rationale be on either sides.

A discussion would be more fruitful devoid of 'name calling' (if that is the word I want?).

"Stereotyping" perhaps? You are quite right, it isn't important to the discussion.

So what direction were you looking for the discussion to go? "This situation" can mean several things.

 

[Peter Pan]

Thor ( I hope you don't mind the short name)

Thank you. Then stereotyping it is.

Before we hit the world order, let's segmentise the discussion for ease of comprehension and contributiuon since we can flit from continent to continent.

The issue is solely US and its role in the Coming World Order till 2020.

While other Nation maybe vying to be Global Powers, but we would do well to keep it US Centric and if we are to discuss the influence of such challengers we could dwell as to how they can hinder it or assist it and what would be the counter to it and this could also be cranked in.

Let's first tackle Europe and its Equation with the US.

Europe can be discussed under the four points I mentioned and Islamisation which I think you or Whisper mentioned.

Islamisation

Let's look at Islamisation.

There is the threat of Islam swamping Europe and skewing the political and cultural fabric.

Therefore, to obviate this a Euro -Islam culture has to be enforced so as to nullify the radicalism that is prevalent in their lands of origin.

Theocratic schools should be banned and secular education enforced. Religion and religious teaching should be kept within the four walls of the home. Embarrassing as it may appear, but the French way of forcing a common dress in schools and Preachers of all religions forced to impart their God's word in French, would go a long way to build the a common French identity.

In fact, with modern education, some Islamic mindset is changing. They have serious doubts about the concept of jihad (if Time magazine is correct) TIME states:

A survey carried out by the Mori agency for Eastern Eye, Britain's biggest selling Asian newspaper, shows that 87% of the Muslims polled are loyal to Britain, even though 64% oppose the U.S.-led strikes against Afghanistan.

It should be mandatory for immigrants to undertake a psychological test as also some type of a test to sift the wheat from the chaff.

That much for the Islamisation and it being secondary to the national identity.

Another worrisome aspect that can affect global strategy is that Islamic nation because of their oil wealth have heavily subscribed to the US and European economy.


Economy

The Islamic countries have invested vast sums of money upfront which can be controlled; yet vast amounts that are laundered cannot be controlled. What are the ways and means that can be employed to ensure that the Islamic countries do not have the leverage to play the European economy to suit their purpose?

In so far as the US and Europe equation and also the global equation, what should be done to ensure that the WTO is fair to all countries and competitive so as to make the economy nd the equations more predictable?

What are the means by which, within the WTO arrangement, US continues to call the shots.

One of the above board ways is cornering the oilfields or at least influence its fortunes and then using the oil prices and productions to manipulate the markets. I have explained this in details elsewhere with reference to the Defence Policy Guidance and the National Energy Policy.

Russia

The US has organised the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2003. This led to the Revolution of the Roses and other former USSR states freeing itself from the sphere of Russia. Therefore Russia feels threatened.

What are the means by which the fear of being encircled can be reduced. The negative offshoot is that Russia is cosying up to Iran over the nuclear question and Russia is a nuclear power. This could result in a stand off.

Therefore, what should be done in the short term and what in the long term?

How Europe could be brought back to the old form of Europe US Relations

You all are experts and so I leave it to your suggestions.

And so on.