US involvement in the China and Taiwan conflict?




 
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Boots
 
April 7th, 2005  
Red_Army
 
 

Topic: US involvement in the China and Taiwan conflict?


I like the theme of this thread to be "Cause and Effect," whereas one action leads to another.

I strongly believe a war between China and Taiwan is coming very soon, probably within 1-3 years. When Chinese troops invade Taiwan, the US will most likely block its path with an aircraft carrier. Thus, resulting in a Sea and Air battle between Chinese ships and a US/Taiwan fleet. Because of the strength of US navy, Chinese troops would not be able to land on Taiwan. Thus, China will launch missiles at Taiwan instead. As time goes by, a lot of Chinese troops and Taiwanese civilians will die. Since China said it will pay any price for victory, expect this war to last at least 10 years and death in the millions.
April 7th, 2005  
Whispering Death
 
 
Well, the big problem for a Chinese invasion is getting from point A to point B. Not only would it be prohibitively difficult for the relatively much weaker Chinese Navy and Air Force to defeat a U.S. carrier force, but the Taiwanese have a strong coastal defence force as well. Therefore, it seems that it would be prohibitively difficult for the Chinese army to make landfall.

The only strategy I think might prove fruitful to defeat the U.S. would be to play the American moralle card since the majority of the American public doesn't even know where Taiwan is, much less why Americans would want to die for that island.
April 7th, 2005  
Red_Army
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whispering Death
Well, the big problem for a Chinese invasion is getting from point A to point B. Not only would it be prohibitively difficult for the relatively much weaker Chinese Navy and Air Force to defeat a U.S. carrier force, but the Taiwanese have a strong coastal defence force as well. Therefore, it seems that it would be prohibitively difficult for the Chinese army to make landfall.

The only strategy I think might prove fruitful to defeat the U.S. would be to play the American moralle card since the majority of the American public doesn't even know where Taiwan is, much less why Americans would want to die for that island.
Is it possible for the Chinese to sink a US Aircraft Carrier?
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Boots
April 7th, 2005  
Whispering Death
 
 
The way I see it, the Chinese navy is close to irrelevent in a fight with America as surface ships are easy targets and Chinese submarines are equally ineffective compared to their American hunter/killer submarine counterparts. Therefore I have to conclude that the only real danger to an American carrier force is Chinese airpower.

Now certainly an American navy is vulnerable as we've seen cruise missiles have a 100% effectiveness in wartime. The only air-to-ship cruise missile fired in war that I am aware of was in the Fawlklands island campaign where the Argentine gov't sunk an AEGIS cruiser with an cruise missile. Therefore we can see that modern ships are hardly invulnerable, even American ones.

That being said, the sheer monetary raio of American millitary spending vs Chinese millitary spending sets the Chinese at an extreme disadvantage. American sensor technology and the amount of aircraft available for missions out of just one supercarrier has the ability to effectively neutralize a Chinese airborne threat at greater than standoff distance from the carrier.
April 7th, 2005  
chewie_nz
 
WHY WONT PEOPLE LEARN?!

china VS taiwan threads get LOCKED! it's pointless!
April 7th, 2005  
Whispering Death
 
 
Chewie, how about you have the decency to let sleeping dogs lie. I'll make you a deal, if this thread gets edgy you get the privilage of being the first to point it out. Till' then how bou't we just let it be, k?
April 7th, 2005  
chewie_nz
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whispering Death
Chewie, how about you have the decency to let sleeping dogs lie. I'll make you a deal, if this thread gets edgy you get the privilage of being the first to point it out. Till' then how bou't we just let it be, k?
i tried that already....i would love a decent discussion on every facet of the geo political ramifications of any conflict in that area.


but it's been done....over and over...and pretty much without fail they get locked.


but by all means....knock your self out!
April 7th, 2005  
Mikey
 
I know this subject has been beaten to death, but I'm new here and I love the chance to discuss this subject any chance I get. Again I feel that China will not invade Taiwan, at least not anytime soon and they are simply rattling sabres to save face and maybe to get a bargaining chip in the world market (we will not invade and in return we get ....) China has threaten invasion of Tiawan at least a dozen times, but this time people are nervous because 1) the US is tied up in the war on terror 2) China has a booming economy and spending a lot of money on upgrading its military.
But to answer those questions, China's military was shocked, suprised and generally upset after the Tsunami when , while supposable having manpower issues in Iraq, the US military was able to quickly mobalize large amounts of aid, men, equipment and material to the area. China's military must have took note that if needed the US can get a large amount of force to Taiwan just as quickly, regardless on what is going on in the middle east. Second both wars in Iraq proved a valuable lesson, Quality does beat quantity. Throwing shear number of outdated Soviet equipment against a small but superior equipted force does not guarantee you victory, actually you may get your butt whooped. Both China and somewhat with Russia are upgrading for this reason.

Ohh and PS while I think the US Navy is the best navy in the world , putting a carrier fleet in the strait of Tiawan is insane and will definately get a few ships sunk. Now if that happen how quick does WW3 start and when do we all get nuked.
April 7th, 2005  
Xion
 
What quantity did Iraq have? , Saddam Husseins military was already messed up, both in numbers and quality, Iraq neither did have quantity nor did it have quality, thats why the US could subdue the army with ease and still have enough strength to combat the insurgents and also send military aid for Tsunami affected regions
April 8th, 2005  
MadeInChina
 
dude, dont forget one thing

china has land-based attack aircrafts that is alot more capable than your humble aircraft carrier, plus the sheer number of aircraft that will be involved in the marine attack will overwelm any sam system

i believe if the us navy steams it self into taiwan strait, chinse navy will pincer from east to west and vise versa, this will be the best tactic to desory the carriers

i dont believe the 7th fleet could sail that fast all the way to taiwan, by then chinese subs would've been blockading teh waters and us navy would have a hard time going through it

the invasion could take months tops, because if successful with no blockage in teh strait the marines of plan will overwelm kmt troops

strategically the chinese has more time to plan than us herself, remember every chinese general has to learn teh basis of strategy, placing it in the top piority simple because of its sheer power aginist other factors in war