Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Washington Examiner
August 22, 2007 By Rowan Scarborough, National Security Correspondent
WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon is likely to reduce troop levels in Iraq from 162,000 today to about 110,000 by this time next year, sources in and outside the Pentagon say.
Although no final recommendations are in place from Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, three developments point toward a significant reduction:
*The Army does not plan to replace five reinforcement brigades, each consisting of 3,400 to 4,000 soldiers, when their 15-month tours expire next summer.
*Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ demand for more rest time for stateside Army units means perhaps three additional Army brigades will rotate out of Iraq next year without replacements.
*The success of the troop surge so far will allow the Iraqi army to take over more security details.
An Army officer at the Pentagon said an informal assumption among some Defense Department officials is that there will be 12 combat brigades in Iraq — 10 Army and two Marine equivalents — a year from now. There are now 20 brigades in Iraq.
“The logic of the surge says you need presence in the cities, but the troop rotation base says you have to cut, and Iraqi security force improvement is slow,” Michael O’Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution, told The Examiner. “When you add up it, you wind up around 110,000 to 120,000 next summer in my judgment.”
Gates’ stated goal is for Army brigade combat teams to eventually earn two years stateside for each year spent overseas. The Army cannot meet that goal unless it eventually reduces the number of troops in Iraq beyond the five surge brigades.
Complicating troop withdrawals is the sorry state of Iraq’s supply system for soldiers. Some U.S. support units that might normally leave with combat brigades may have to stay.
“Their support services won’t be mature enough to sustain operations for a few years at best,” said retired Army Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis, a military analyst.
Added to the calculation is a new political development: Pressure from Democrats for a faster troop withdrawal seems to be losing steam.
Two of the most influential senators on military matters, Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin, D-Mich., and John Warner, R-Va., issued a statement this week that lauded the surge’s “tangible results.”
Levin previously demanded that President Bush remove troops on a set timetable, and Warner last October said Iraq was “drifting sideways.” But their visit softened their views.
“We note the continuing improvements in the ability and willingness of the Iraqi Army to conduct combat operations,” they said in their statement.
August 22, 2007 By Rowan Scarborough, National Security Correspondent
WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon is likely to reduce troop levels in Iraq from 162,000 today to about 110,000 by this time next year, sources in and outside the Pentagon say.
Although no final recommendations are in place from Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, three developments point toward a significant reduction:
*The Army does not plan to replace five reinforcement brigades, each consisting of 3,400 to 4,000 soldiers, when their 15-month tours expire next summer.
*Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ demand for more rest time for stateside Army units means perhaps three additional Army brigades will rotate out of Iraq next year without replacements.
*The success of the troop surge so far will allow the Iraqi army to take over more security details.
An Army officer at the Pentagon said an informal assumption among some Defense Department officials is that there will be 12 combat brigades in Iraq — 10 Army and two Marine equivalents — a year from now. There are now 20 brigades in Iraq.
“The logic of the surge says you need presence in the cities, but the troop rotation base says you have to cut, and Iraqi security force improvement is slow,” Michael O’Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution, told The Examiner. “When you add up it, you wind up around 110,000 to 120,000 next summer in my judgment.”
Gates’ stated goal is for Army brigade combat teams to eventually earn two years stateside for each year spent overseas. The Army cannot meet that goal unless it eventually reduces the number of troops in Iraq beyond the five surge brigades.
Complicating troop withdrawals is the sorry state of Iraq’s supply system for soldiers. Some U.S. support units that might normally leave with combat brigades may have to stay.
“Their support services won’t be mature enough to sustain operations for a few years at best,” said retired Army Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis, a military analyst.
Added to the calculation is a new political development: Pressure from Democrats for a faster troop withdrawal seems to be losing steam.
Two of the most influential senators on military matters, Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin, D-Mich., and John Warner, R-Va., issued a statement this week that lauded the surge’s “tangible results.”
Levin previously demanded that President Bush remove troops on a set timetable, and Warner last October said Iraq was “drifting sideways.” But their visit softened their views.
“We note the continuing improvements in the ability and willingness of the Iraqi Army to conduct combat operations,” they said in their statement.