Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

[I3BrigPvSk]

The thing is the west did meddle in Ukraine but it is kind of irrelevant as it wasn't the west that crossed the borders.
No matter how Putin and his cronies want to spin it Ukraine has a right to choose its own path and it chose a western one, at no stage was Ukraine ever a threat to Russia militarily and had Russia not been a country that is a wholly unlikable, bully maybe Ukraine would have stayed in its sphere.

As for where this war is going, I don't know, my gut feeling is that they will push from Kherson, I believe the Melitopol axis is a bad option as it creates an extra front, by leaving Russia there and pushing from Kherson it puts all of the Russian forces along sea of Azov in a narrow salient as Ukrainian missiles can hit the Perekop isthmus from Kherson in the south and Melitopol from Zaporozhye in the east.

But there is another option and that is Russia going on the offensive probably in the north, trying another Kiev run, the question is whether Russia has the material capacity to do it or not.

Why I don't believe the Ukrainian offensive will originate in the Kherson region is they will be forced to do a river crossing under fire when the Russians are on the east side of the river. Melitopol is on the supply route between Donbas and Crimea. The latter has a strategic significance for the Russians, but they are more vulnerable on Crimea than in Donbas.

The Russian might "force" the Belarusian to participate in an offensive.

 

[MontyB]

Why I don't believe the Ukrainian offensive will originate in the Kherson region is they will be forced to do a river crossing under fire when the Russians are on the east side of the river. Melitopol is on the supply route between Donbas and Crimea. The latter has a strategic significance for the Russians, but they are more vulnerable on Crimea than in Donbas.

The Russian might "force" the Belarusian to participate in an offensive.

At this stage I wouldn't be surprised if the Belarusian military swapped sides rather than taking on Ukraine, just the rumor of taking part last time triggered resignations.
While I wouldn't discount the possibility of Belarus joining in I think even Putin realizes the thought of them joining in has as much value in tying down Ukrainian forces.

That said I still believe NATO or a couple of individual countries should be warning Belarus that their entry would open the door to others joining in on behalf of Ukraine.
They are paranoid enough that large scale and extended NATO exercises in North Eastern Poland would force a redeployment of Belarusian troops.

 

[lljadw]

Legal yes, if they care. It wouldn't cause a major maintenance problem when the countries that have them are capable to maintain the tanks by themselves.

Better :IF the countries that have them are capable to maintain the tanks by themselves .
On 11 January the Polish president said that Poland would send enough Leo2s to form a company ,which means only 12 tanks ,while Poland has 242 Leos .
Why is Poland unwilling to send more Leos ?
1 Maybe Ukraine asks only for 12,knowing it can use only 12, or that it needs only 12 tanks .
2 Maybe the other 230 ones are no longer operational,as the production of the Leo2s started 44 years ago and that they will no longer be used after 2030 .
3 An other possibility is that these 12 tanks are also not operational and that Poland has only some 40 operational Leo2s .
4 It is also possible that Poland knows that to send more than 12 tanks is only a wast .
As I already said : there is the bridge problem : the Leos weigh 55 tons , but the bridges can sustain only 44 tons .
5 Why is Ukraine asking for Leos,of which they know that it can obtain only a small number ,a number that is useless in a defensive or offensive role against 2000 Russian tanks ?

 

[MontyB]

Better :IF the countries that have them are capable to maintain the tanks by themselves .
On 11 January the Polish president said that Poland would send enough Leo2s to form a company ,which means only 12 tanks ,while Poland has 242 Leos .
Why is Poland unwilling to send more Leos ?
1 Maybe Ukraine asks only for 12,knowing it can use only 12, or that it needs only 12 tanks .
2 Maybe the other 230 ones are no longer operational,as the production of the Leo2s started 44 years ago and that they will no longer be used after 2030 .
3 An other possibility is that these 12 tanks are also not operational and that Poland has only some 40 operational Leo2s .
4 It is also possible that Poland knows that to send more than 12 tanks is only a wast .
As I already said : there is the bridge problem : the Leos weigh 55 tons , but the bridges can sustain only 44 tons .
5 Why is Ukraine asking for Leos,of which they know that it can obtain only a small number ,a number that is useless in a defensive or offensive role against 2000 Russian tanks ?

I think it is a bit of an assumption to say Russia has 2000 tanks and that Poland only has 40 operational L2s.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

At this stage I wouldn't be surprised if the Belarusian military swapped sides rather than taking on Ukraine, just the rumor of taking part last time triggered resignations.
While I wouldn't discount the possibility of Belarus joining in I think even Putin realizes the thought of them joining in has as much value in tying down Ukrainian forces.

That said I still believe NATO or a couple of individual countries should be warning Belarus that their entry would open the door to others joining in on behalf of Ukraine.
They are paranoid enough that large scale and extended NATO exercises in North Eastern Poland would force a redeployment of Belarusian troops.

Russia will react when Ukraine gets Leo2 and the C2 and maybe "force" Belarus to attack Ukraine. Is that what Germany is concerned about? Exercises close to the Belarusian border can prevent it.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Better :IF the countries that have them are capable to maintain the tanks by themselves .
On 11 January the Polish president said that Poland would send enough Leo2s to form a company ,which means only 12 tanks ,while Poland has 242 Leos .
Why is Poland unwilling to send more Leos ?
1 Maybe Ukraine asks only for 12,knowing it can use only 12, or that it needs only 12 tanks .
2 Maybe the other 230 ones are no longer operational,as the production of the Leo2s started 44 years ago and that they will no longer be used after 2030 .
3 An other possibility is that these 12 tanks are also not operational and that Poland has only some 40 operational Leo2s .
4 It is also possible that Poland knows that to send more than 12 tanks is only a wast .
As I already said : there is the bridge problem : the Leos weigh 55 tons , but the bridges can sustain only 44 tons .
5 Why is Ukraine asking for Leos,of which they know that it can obtain only a small number ,a number that is useless in a defensive or offensive role against 2000 Russian tanks ?

They can maintain them. It's a part of the deal to have Leo2s made in the country that buy them. That's why all the Leo2s in different countries are slightly different from each other. There is a difference between the Swedish leo2s and the Finnish leo2s. This is common when countries are buying defense systems. Poland will be making K2 Black Panthers under license, but they are waiting to get the first batches of Abrams and K2 before handing over any tanks to the Ukrainians.

We will see what happens tomorrow at the meeting in Ramstein AB.

 

[lljadw]

Meanwhile the German PM said that he would give tanks without saying how many , IF ,thus on the condition, that the US also would give tanks .
Thus he said :everything depends on the US and the US will invent also an excuse and if the US send tanks, Germany will invent an other reason to not send tanks .And then,we can start again .
Why is Poland not saying that it will give all their tanks (242 ) on the condition that the other countries with Leos will replace these 242 tanks ?

 

[lljadw]

I think it is a bit of an assumption to say Russia has 2000 tanks and that Poland only has 40 operational L2s.

If Poland has more than 40 operational L2s,why is it saying that it will send only 12 of them ?
And even if the Russians have only 1000 tanks in Ukraine (they have lost some 1400/1500 ),12 Leo2s against 1000 Russian tanks is totally ridiculous .

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Meanwhile the German PM said that he would give tanks without saying how many , IF ,thus on the condition, that the US also would give tanks .
Thus he said :everything depends on the US and the US will invent also an excuse and if the US send tanks, Germany will invent an other reason to not send tanks .And then,we can start again .
Why is Poland not saying that it will give all their tanks (242 ) on the condition that the other countries with Leos will replace these 242 tanks ?

I don't know what the Polish government thinks about it, but if we speculate about it. They want to get rid of all German made weapons when the Leo2s are replaced with Abrams and K2s. Although, they can't give all of them right now. However, the Leo2s are the best options for Ukraine when several countries have Leos. These countries can hand over some Leo2s without jeopardizing their own defense.

The German reluctance will have consequences for the German defense industry. The Americans, the British, and the French will be happy about it when they can sell their stuff without the competition from the Germans

 

[MontyB]

Russia will react when Ukraine gets Leo2 and the C2 and maybe "force" Belarus to attack Ukraine. Is that what Germany is concerned about? Exercises close to the Belarusian border can prevent it.

About the only thing Russia seems capable of doing is firing missiles at apartment blocks and playgrounds, Germany I suspect is either playing both sides to avoid escalation for some reason (most likely to hide the state of the German military) or because it is still hiding behind WW2 guilt.

I tend to believe that the deployment of a large NATO force to NE Poland would force Belarus and possibly Russia to redeploy some of its forces which would be of benefit to Ukraine.

If Poland has more than 40 operational L2s,why is it saying that it will send only 12 of them ?
And even if the Russians have only 1000 tanks in Ukraine (they have lost some 1400/1500 ),12 Leo2s against 1000 Russian tanks is totally ridiculous .

Possibly because they only want to give 12, no matter how much they would like to help Ukraine they still have their own operational needs.

 

[MontyB]

They can maintain them. It's a part of the deal to have Leo2s made in the country that buy them. That's why all the Leo2s in different countries are slightly different from each other. There is a difference between the Swedish leo2s and the Finnish leo2s. This is common when countries are buying defense systems. Poland will be making K2 Black Panthers under license, but they are waiting to get the first batches of Abrams and K2 before handing over any tanks to the Ukrainians.

We will see what happens tomorrow at the meeting in Ramstein AB.

They received the first K2A1 tanks in September last year.

https://www.gov.pl/web/national-def...er-to-the-soldiers-of-the-polish-armed-forces

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

They received the first K2A1 tanks in September last year.

https://www.gov.pl/web/national-def...er-to-the-soldiers-of-the-polish-armed-forces

That's great. I also read the Poles are considering to hand over Leo2s to the Ukrainians even without the German consent. It will be a great way for NATO countries with German weapons to give it all to Ukraine regardless what the Sourcroats are saying and never buying any military equipment from Germany again. It will be interesting to see what the Poles do when all the Leos are replaced with Abrams and K2s.


It is also official, Sweden will give the Archer artillery system, the CV90 vehicles, and additional NLAWS to Ukraine

 

[MontyB]

That's great. I also read the Poles are considering to hand over Leo2s to the Ukrainians even without the German consent. It will be a great way for NATO countries with German weapons to give it all to Ukraine regardless what the Sourcroats are saying and never buying any military equipment from Germany again. It will be interesting to see what the Poles do when all the Leos are replaced with Abrams and K2s.


It is also official, Sweden will give the Archer artillery system, the CV90 vehicles, and additional NLAWS to Ukraine

I am not sure what the Germans are playing at but I am starting to wonder whether the L2 isn't fit for purpose like the Puma.
I see Denmark has increased the number of Caesar units it is sending from 6 to 19 as well.

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-to-get-caesar-mobile-howitzers-from-denmark/

I also think we need to start helping out Moldova, before Putin tries something there...

https://www.euractiv.com/section/gl...es-says-russia-trying-to-destabilise-country/

Not sure why they need air defence more than fuel and economic support at the moment though.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I am not sure what the Germans are playing at but I am starting to wonder whether the L2 isn't fit for purpose like the Puma.
I see Denmark has increased the number of Caesar units it is sending from 6 to 19 as well.

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-to-get-caesar-mobile-howitzers-from-denmark/

The German excuse for not allowing other countries to contribute Ukraine with some of their Leo2s is quite ridiculous and naive. It would most likely hurt the German industry a lot. The politically price will also be high. The three major European political powers in NATO will not be France, UK, and Germany. It will be the UK, France, and Poland

 

[MontyB]

The German excuse for not allowing other countries to contribute Ukraine with some of their Leo2s is quite ridiculous and naive. It would most likely hurt the German industry a lot. The politically price will also be high. The three major European political powers in NATO will not be France, UK, and Germany. It will be the UK, France, and Poland

I guess it comes down to how the German people feel on the matter, it is a rather fragile government that probably doesn't and shouldn't risk alienating itself by making an unpopular call.

I find this interesting, wonder what they are expecting to happen...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/pantsir-air-defense-systems-appear-on-moscow-rooftops

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I guess it comes down to how the German people feel on the matter, it is a rather fragile government that probably doesn't and shouldn't risk alienating itself by making an unpopular call.

I find this interesting, wonder what they are expecting to happen...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/pantsir-air-defense-systems-appear-on-moscow-rooftops

I can understand if the Germans don't want to send their own weapon system when they allowed their own armed forces to decline to an extreme low level. But not allowing the Poles, The Finns, the Danes, the Swedes, etc, etc to not provide Ukraine with German made weapons will only harm the German defense industry and reduce Germany politically within the NATO alliance.


It looks like a paranoid move by the Russians

 

[MontyB]

I can understand if the Germans don't want to send their own weapon system when they allowed their own armed forces to decline to an extreme low level. But not allowing the Poles, The Finns, the Danes, the Swedes, etc, etc to not provide Ukraine with German made weapons will only harm the German defense industry and reduce Germany politically within the NATO alliance.


It looks like a paranoid move by the Russians

Yes but it is also a move that says "this isn't going to plan", wasn't it Goring that said “If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Göring. You can call me Meyer.”

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Yes but it is also a move that says "this isn't going to plan", wasn't it Goring that said “If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Göring. You can call me Meyer.”

You know the expression; No battle plan survives its first contact with the enemy.

I don't know if Goering said that. I think Hitler said something like this. To start a war is like open the door to a dark room, you never know what you will find.

The German government reminds me of Chamberlain

 

[lljadw]

Der Spiegel said that Germany has 300 + Leo2s,but that only 160 0f them are operational .
Germany said that it would deliver(directly/indirectly ? )Leos,at the condition that the US would deliver Abram tanks,but the US refuse to deliver these ,giving as reason ( excuse ?) maintenance problems and that Ukraine has not the needed fuel for these tanks .
Conclusion :both are looking for reasons /excuses to not to do what they said they would do .
About Germany and Chamberlain :
Chamberlain did much more to rearm Britain than Churchill ,when Churchill was Chancellor of the Exchequer,and Chamberlain did also more than the German leaders are doing today .
Attenuating circumstance for Germany is
a the refusal of the Greens to rearm
b the inability of Germany to rearm because it has not the needed money :there is even no money to give the pensioners a decent pension .

 

[lljadw]

The German excuse for not allowing other countries to contribute Ukraine with some of their Leo2s is quite ridiculous and naive. It would most likely hurt the German industry a lot. The politically price will also be high. The three major European political powers in NATO will not be France, UK, and Germany. It will be the UK, France, and Poland

Poland is only a dwarf compared to Germany .