Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

George said:
Considering the problems they've had with Moslems....
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And the fact that the Syrian regime needed the Russians to keep it in power, I will be interested to see how Syrian troops enjoy the sub-zero temperatures of Ukraine.
 
MontyB said:
And the fact that the Syrian regime needed the Russians to keep it in power, I will be interested to see how Syrian troops enjoy the sub-zero temperatures of Ukraine.
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really can't imagine the Russians needing outside manpower, maybe a way for Syria to pay some of its debt?
 
George said:
really can't imagine the Russians needing outside manpower, maybe a way for Syria to pay some of its debt?
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I would imagine they need manpower with some combat experience the claim is that Syrian troops have experience in urban warfare.
 
I thought this was an interesting take on Russian logistics...



russian logistics


With that video in mind would it be an option for Ukraine to devote some of it's UAV capacity to attacking rail heads and marshalling points inside Russia itself to artificially extend Russian supply lines?
 
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Reports of Putin asking China for military help, if true the Russians must be a lot weaker than it seems.
 
George said:
Reports of Putin asking China for military help, if true the Russians must be a lot weaker than it seems.
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Yes, this is war is what Monty said; the war of WTF. But I am impressed by the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces. Those who are fighting for their country, homes, families, and love ones are really motivated. There are signs of morale issues among the Russians. I am thinking the Ukrainians can pull this off
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, this is war is what Monty said; the war of WTF. But I am impressed by the performance of the Ukrainian armed forces. Those who are fighting for their country, homes, families, and love ones are really motivated. There are signs of morale issues among the Russians. I am thinking the Ukrainians can pull this off
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I agree about the performance of Ukraine's armed forces but how much of that is Russian under performance?
I don't share your optimism on the outcome as long as Putin is prepared to employ a rolling artillery barrage from one end of the country to the other and carry out a war of attrition then it is impossible for them to lose the war, they will be there for years trying to subdue an insurgency, Russia's economy will be destroyed by sanctions and I would expect Putin's life expectancy may not be all that long.

One problem in our ability to assess performance in this war is that we have two armies that use mostly identical equipment and are equally as determined to spin a story about what is going on, for example we don't really know if a burnt out T-72 is Russian or Ukrainian, I don't believe Russian POW claims of Russia shooting it's own wounded to keep the public at home in the dark as at some point 100000+ troops are going to go home and turn on the lights.

One thing I still think Ukraine should receive and use are long range drones to attack Russian logistics infrastructure in southern Russia, the further back they can expose Russian logistics and put troops on edge the worse their front line performance will be and let's face it who wouldn't smirk at a Hellfire missile damaging the paint work on the Kremlin.
 
Are the Russians claiming they are shooting their own wounded? I haven't heard that

I think the Russians are underperforming and the Ukrainians are overperforming. It is hard to really know what is going on, but I think the Ukrainians are more using infantry units with anti-tank weapons to hit and run. I don't know if the Ukrainians are letting the tank and mechanized units pass and then hit their supplies.

The longer the Ukrainians can fighting back and causes a lot of casualties they may pull this off, but that depends on how much more the Russians can take the cost of the war. The sanctions and the casualties can make them to react. It also depends on if Putin mysteriously and suddenly dies. He can't back down, but how long can the other Russians in the government live with this.

I think I said something about giving the Ukrainians systems that can deal with the Russian artillery. I would try to use their Turkish UAV's against their artillery if I were an Ukrainian officer. Another option would be to try to hit the Russian railroad hubs in southern Russia. A lot of their supplies are going on railroads and if the Ukrainians can hit where they unload their supply trains and load it on trucks would worsen the Russian logistical problems.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Are the Russians claiming they are shooting their own wounded? I haven't heard that

I think the Russians are underperforming and the Ukrainians are overperforming. It is hard to really know what is going on, but I think the Ukrainians are more using infantry units with anti-tank weapons to hit and run. I don't know if the Ukrainians are letting the tank and mechanized units pass and then hit their supplies.

The longer the Ukrainians can fighting back and causes a lot of casualties they may pull this off, but that depends on how much more the Russians can take the cost of the war. The sanctions and the casualties can make them to react. It also depends on if Putin mysteriously and suddenly dies. He can't back down, but how long can the other Russians in the government live with this.

I think I said something about giving the Ukrainians systems that can deal with the Russian artillery. I would try to use their Turkish UAV's against their artillery if I were an Ukrainian officer. Another option would be to try to hit the Russian railroad hubs in southern Russia. A lot of their supplies are going on railroads and if the Ukrainians can hit where they unload their supply trains and load it on trucks would worsen the Russian logistical problems.
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I can't find that specific comment

POW comments


POW comments


POW comments


Found it... Once again I don't speak Russian and have no idea whether he is who he says he is so make of it what you will...
POW on phone



The other thing to note is that this information is gathered under duress and that there is no confirmation that the participants are who they say they are, but if these are "genuine" Russian POWs it seems to me that they are poorly trained reservists who were basically given a gun pointed south.

And just for good measure a dissenting opinion...

Putin says...
 
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I also found this rather interesting, things could get rather sticky for the Russians if Ukraine can stay in the fight long enough to get it's reserves up to speed and equipped.

Russian failings


And...

10 Days
 
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There are so many known unknowns, hehe couldn't resist to say that. I usually don't care nor listen to what POW's are saying. They tend to say what their guards want them to say.

This war is difficult to keep track of, there is so much propaganda and I think Ukraine is winning that war. Especially when Lavrov said "Russia has not invaded Ukraine" It looks pretty much as an invasion to me.

I have asked myself how much military aid is going into Ukraine, what do they get? We know they get Javelin missiles, NLAW's, Stingers, Starstreak, panzerfaust 3, the Turkish UAV's, protection gear, and MRE food. Do the Ukrainians get more advanced air defense systems and other military aid? Is the support operation working well or not? I guess the Ukrainians get a lot of intelligence support from the West. The Russians might have lost high ranked officers, is that because of the intel they get?

The Russian advance is very slow, they seem to have huge logistical problems. Is these problems because of their own incompetence or do the Ukrainians contribute to the stalled offensive.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
There are so many known unknowns, hehe couldn't resist to say that. I usually don't care nor listen to what POW's are saying. They tend to say what their guards want them to say.
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I agree which is why I pointed out that these things are done under some duress and at the end of the day there is no proof they are even Russian soldiers but if we assume they are then you can draw several conclusions the main one is that they are not well instructed in security procedures nor do they appear particularly smart which leads me to believe they are low grade reservists (guys just serving their time).

This war is difficult to keep track of, there is so much propaganda and I think Ukraine is winning that war. Especially when Lavrov said "Russia has not invaded Ukraine" It looks pretty much as an invasion to me.
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I admit I would like to know what he sees as the difference.

I have asked myself how much military aid is going into Ukraine, what do they get? We know they get Javelin missiles, NLAW's, Stingers, Starstreak, panzerfaust 3, the Turkish UAV's, protection gear, and MRE food. Do the Ukrainians get more advanced air defense systems and other military aid? Is the support operation working well or not? I guess the Ukrainians get a lot of intelligence support from the West. The Russians might have lost high ranked officers, is that because of the intel they get?

The Russian advance is very slow, they seem to have huge logistical problems. Is these problems because of their own incompetence or do the Ukrainians contribute to the stalled offensive.
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My problem is that all this defensive equipment is great but in the end no one wins a defensive war, at some stage they have to retake ground or they will eventually lose it one metre at a time.
I still believe they have at some stage to take the war to the Russians which I think includes attacks on transport links inside Russia, oil/fuel facilities in Crimea and attacks on the Black Sea Fleet which means they need longer range offensive weapons.
 
MontyB said:
I still believe they have at some stage to take the war to the Russians which I think includes attacks on transport links inside Russia, oil/fuel facilities in Crimea and attacks on the Black Sea Fleet which means they need longer range offensive weapons.
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If there are any LNG storage within range......
 
MontyB said:
I agree which is why I pointed out that these things are done under some duress and at the end of the day there is no proof they are even Russian soldiers but if we assume they are then you can draw several conclusions the main one is that they are not well instructed in security procedures nor do they appear particularly smart which leads me to believe they are low grade reservists (guys just serving their time).



I admit I would like to know what he sees as the difference.



My problem is that all this defensive equipment is great but in the end no one wins a defensive war, at some stage they have to retake ground or they will eventually lose it one metre at a time.
I still believe they have at some stage to take the war to the Russians which I think includes attacks on transport links inside Russia, oil/fuel facilities in Crimea and attacks on the Black Sea Fleet which means they need longer range offensive weapons.
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Yes, it would be good if the Ukrainians get weapons that can reach what you stated. The problem can be if the Ukrainians are attacking logistical hubs in Belarus. It would be a military necessity, but it can drag Belarus into the war.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, it would be good if the Ukrainians get weapons that can reach what you stated. The problem can be if the Ukrainians are attacking logistical hubs in Belarus. It would be a military necessity, but it can drag Belarus into the war.
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I also think the West should make it very clear to Putin that if Belarus joins Russia and sends troops it will become an invitation for NATO countries to respond in support of Ukraine.
 
MontyB said:
I also think the West should make it very clear to Putin that if Belarus joins Russia and sends troops it will become an invitation for NATO countries to respond in support of Ukraine.
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I agree with what you are saying. This shelling of residential areas must have consequences. I have changed my mind about the no-fly zone and perhaps not stopping with a no-fly zone because a no fly zone will not stop the Russian artillery. I read the US will provide Ukraine with long range air defense systems. I also think the Ukrainians shall get the MIG's and the SU's planes. They can probably not fight back the Russian planes, but they can make it more dangerous for the Russian planes. If the Ukraine get the air defense systems and maybe the planes it can get the no-fly zone without having NATO doing it for them.

I saw the Russians are constructing a fuel pipeline, it will be a nice target for the "kamikaze" drones the US are providing Ukraine with.
 
MontyB said:
I also think the West should make it very clear to Putin that if Belarus joins Russia and sends troops it will become an invitation for NATO countries to respond in support of Ukraine.
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They have violated neutrality by allowing Russia to use their territory to invade.
 
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