Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

I3BrigPvSk said:
I haven't looked at the Russian casualty figures for awhile and of course we can't trust the data anyway. However, the Russian government cannot hide the high amount of casualties. If the Russian mothers got pissed about the losses in Afghanistan, they will be furies about what happens to their sons in Ukraine
Click to expand...
The Western guess is 15,000. Sounds like a good start...
 
The data by Oryx seems to be quite reliable, but it is more difficult to make estimates about the Russian casualties. If we take the BMP's and the BTR's losses. Did they have the troops in them when they were destroyed or not. If I remember correctly both of them have a crew of three and both can take an infantry squad. The BTR has a capacity of more soldiers than the BMP.

I haven't seen the lethal Ukrainian tractor force for awhile. Are they regrouping and preparing for a counter offensive? :smile:
 
I have been thinking and discussing with others about the performance of the Russian military. If we take their communication equipment; the Russian army has used civilian cellphones for communication, which is a really bad idea in a war zone. They did the same in Chechnya and in Georgia, so why don't they have military graded communication equipment. Can it be corruption? They must have known about it and probably tried to get good communication, but the money might ended up somewhere else.

The performance of the Russian military made me really questioning their military training. It is the same here. To train and having exercises cost a lot of money. The commanders might have used the funding for exercises to something else.

I found this video by the same guy that talked about the German army

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4&t=511s
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I have been thinking and discussing with others about the performance of the Russian military. If we take their communication equipment; the Russian army has used civilian cellphones for communication, which is a really bad idea in a war zone. They did the same in Chechnya and in Georgia, so why don't they have military graded communication equipment. Can it be corruption? They must have known about it and probably tried to get good communication, but the money might ended up somewhere else.

The performance of the Russian military made me really questioning their military training. It is the same here. To train and having exercises cost a lot of money. The commanders might have used the funding for exercises to something else.

I found this video by the same guy that talked about the German army

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i47sgi-V4&t=511s
Click to expand...
It's been said Russia is just a 3rd World country armed with nukes....
 
George said:
It's been said Russia is just a 3rd World country armed with nukes....
Click to expand...

I tend to agree, they seem to be a little bit more "European" west of Moscow but the levels of institutionalised corruption are phenomenal.

Watching a few of the various videos of "rural" Russia it seems incredibly backward to the point that I suspect Napoleon would recognise some of the infrastructure, it is unfortunate that they don't seem capable of getting past their paranoia about the world outside Russia long enough to take the giant leap out of the 18th century and into the 21st.

I think the video gives an accurate picture of a country where everyone is shafting everyone else to make a few rubles and it is now so normal an event that no one cares until you steal from someone one step higher on the totem pole and then you are in trouble unless of course, you can buy your way out of trouble.
 
Last edited:
I reply here to what you said in the thread about the new Panther tank.

It makes sense, we have seen very little of the Russian infantry and they drove into urban areas without using infantry to clear it the houses and the area from Ukrainian infantry. Only because they don't have the infantry required to do it.

So we have two major questions and we probably got the answer to the question where is the Russian infantry, and yet we still wonder where the Russian air force is.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I reply here to what you said in the thread about the new Panther tank.

It makes sense, we have seen very little of the Russian infantry and they drove into urban areas without using infantry to clear it the houses and the area from Ukrainian infantry. Only because they don't have the infantry required to do it.

So we have two major questions and we probably got the answer to the question where is the Russian infantry, and yet we still wonder where the Russian air force is.
Click to expand...

I think the answer to where the air force is, is much simpler, it doesn't exist.
The Russian air force like everything Russian had been hyped beyond belief and now when it could have proved it's ability it has failed to show, I would argue that it is operationally much smaller in reality than it is on paper and it is probably operating at full capacity in Ukraine it is just that "full capacity" is more or less undetectable.
Like everything Russian it is a product of sycophantic management and endemic corruption.
 
It's interesting to follow the Ukrainian counter attack around the city of Kherson. It seems the Ukrainians are pretty close to isolate the Russian 49th army on the western side of the river. The Ukrainians have the initiative for the moment, but that can change pretty fast.

If the Ukrainians are able to recapture Kherson, the Ukrainians will be able to turn off the drinking water to the Crimean peninsula
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It's interesting to follow the Ukrainian counter attack around the city of Kherson. It seems the Ukrainians are pretty close to isolate the Russian 49th army on the western side of the river. The Ukrainians have the initiative for the moment, but that can change pretty fast.

If the Ukrainians are able to recapture Kherson, the Ukrainians will be able to turn off the drinking water to the Crimean peninsula
Click to expand...

I think the term "isolate" is a little inaccurate as they can still receive limited supplies, reinforcements and air/artillery support from the south side of the river.
Offensive operations would be more difficult but I doubt defending Kherson would be inhibited greatly until Ukrainian artillery could effectively counter Russian artillery south of the Dnipro.
 
It is hard to get a picture about how effective the Ukrainians are to hit the Russian supply depots, but it seems the Russian supply problems remains even without the Ukrainians hitting their supply lines
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It is hard to get a picture about how effective the Ukrainians are to hit the Russian supply depots, but it seems the Russian supply problems remains even without the Ukrainians hitting their supply lines
Click to expand...

Just wondering, what are the chances that Russia's "operational pause" is due to them wearing out their artillery, they keep claiming that they were firing up to 60000 rounds a day which surely is going to mean a lot of guns needing rebarrelling.
 
MontyB said:
Just wondering, what are the chances that Russia's "operational pause" is due to them wearing out their artillery, they keep claiming that they were firing up to 60000 rounds a day which surely is going to mean a lot of guns needing rebarrelling.
Click to expand...

I doubt they are firing that amount of artillery shells. The Russians have had supply problems since day one and that without the Ukrainians influencing their supply lines. The Russian are too dependent on their railroad for the supply and it is quite easy to detect the supply hubs where they transfer the supplies from railroad to trucks.

It is a strange war, I still smile when I am thinking about what you said a few months ago. "We had the Wars of The Roses, the War of the Oranges, and now we have the war of WTH?"
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I doubt they are firing that amount of artillery shells. The Russians have had supply problems since day one and that without the Ukrainians influencing their supply lines. The Russian are too dependent on their railroad for the supply and it is quite easy to detect the supply hubs where they transfer the supplies from railroad to trucks.

It is a strange war, I still smile when I am thinking about what you said a few months ago. "We had the Wars of The Roses, the War of the Oranges, and now we have the war of WTH?"
Click to expand...

My reason for wondering this is simply because Russian artillery fire seems to have diminished significantly since the start of the eastern campaign, some of this is likely due to Ukraine targeting Russian ammo dumps but it has tapered off a lot more than I would have expected in the last couple of weeks, there are even reports that the Russians are receiving more inbound than they are sending.

This is a war that makes little sense no matter what angle you look at it, seems as though the Russians never expected anyone to shoot back and I really struggle to believe they could be that naive.

One aspect of the Ukrainian defense that I have found interesting has been their ability to train and equip an army in the middle of a conflict and at the same time re-equip from Soviet to NATO standard gear, it has been an impressive feat.


I have been reading a report on Russian military corruption by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, it paints an interesting picture, I recommend reading it and it can be downloaded here.

https://www.ffi.no/en/publications-archive/russian-military-corruption-scale-and-causes
 
Last edited:
MontyB said:
Just wondering, what are the chances that Russia's "operational pause" is due to them wearing out their artillery, they keep claiming that they were firing up to 60000 rounds a day which surely is going to mean a lot of guns needing rebarrelling.
Click to expand...
Have seen an article talking about burst muzzles seen on Russian guns.
 
I begin to think the Ukrainian counter-attack/offensive in the south is not the real counter attack. I think the Ukrainian armed forces are trying to get the Russians to regroup their forces and it seems like the Russian have done just that.

It isn't wise to announce where to counterattack or launch a counteroffensive before it happens.
 
Last edited:
I3BrigPvSk said:
I begin to think the Ukrainian counter-attack/offensive in the south is not the real counter attack. I think the Ukrainian armed forces are trying to get the Russians to regroup their forces and it seems like the Russian have done just that.

It isn't wise to announce where to counterattack or launch a counteroffensive before it happens.
Click to expand...

I have to admit I am suspecting the same thing, it is a counter attack with a goal they show no signs of moving toward.
I am wondering whether they don't want the Russians to break away from the artillery war they have been fighting in the east.
 
MontyB said:
I have to admit I am suspecting the same thing, it is a counter attack with a goal they show no signs of moving toward.
I am wondering whether they don't want the Russians to break away from the artillery war they have been fighting in the east.
Click to expand...

Yep, the counter attacks around Kherson is a diversion, an Ukrainian version of "Operation Fortitude" that force the Russian to deploy forces to the south. The Ukrainians army is quite successful in the north and has pushed the Russian forces back a few clicks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top