Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

The new HIMARS seem to be working pretty well for the Ukrainians.

Blue on blue happens in almost all wars. Usually the air force is firing on friendly ground forces. I am quite surprised to see the Russian air defense shooting down one of their own aircrafts. I thought the Russian air force was on a vacations (sarcasm)
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The new HIMARS seem to be working pretty well for the Ukrainians.

Blue on blue happens in almost all wars. Usually the air force is firing on friendly ground forces. I am quite surprised to see the Russian air defense shooting down one of their own aircrafts. I thought the Russian air force was on a vacations (sarcasm)
Click to expand...

Apparently they are scaring polar bears...

https://www.arctictoday.com/russia-...mbers-over-arctic-as-part-of-training-flight/

Rumour is that they are looking to join NATO.
 
Its been suggested that Putin nukes England, but spare Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland;-).

Personally I'd nuke Scotland to get rid of those horrible bagpipes and men running around in skirts, Wales because they speak funny and love sheep, and Northern Ireland because they built the Titanic
 
With the new kit and equipment Ukraine is receiving and being trained by Western Militaries, I cannot see Russia getting nearer to the west of Ukraine. Putin must be getting desperate to empty the jails for prisoners to act as cannon fodder.

As is well known, Stalin had no regard for human life, Putin is definitely following in his footsteps.
 
BritinBritain said:
With the new kit and equipment Ukraine is receiving and being trained by Western Militaries, I cannot see Russia getting nearer to the west of Ukraine. Putin must be getting desperate to empty the jails for prisoners to act as cannon fodder.

As is well known, Stalin had no regard for human life, Putin is definitely following in his footsteps.
Click to expand...

The main problem I can see at the moment is the amount of gear Ukraine needs, while it is receiving excellent gear it doesn't seem to be getting enough to tip the balance, let's face it a dozen Himars can't be everywhere they are needed.
I still think Ukraine needs to keep things together until winter to gain the time to concentrate the new equipment if it is ever going to push the Russians back.
 
MontyB said:
The main problem I can see at the moment is the amount of gear Ukraine needs, while it is receiving excellent gear it doesn't seem to be getting enough to tip the balance, let's face it a dozen Himars can't be everywhere they are needed.
I still think Ukraine needs to keep things together until winter to gain the time to concentrate the new equipment if it is ever going to push the Russians back.
Click to expand...

I think the West reasoning is; we keep Ukraine supplied enough to prevent Russia from winning the war and hoping the Russians get rid of Putin.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I think the West reasoning is; we keep Ukraine supplied enough to prevent Russia from winning the war and hoping the Russians get rid of Putin.
Click to expand...

The only way to get rid of Putin is force him into a general mobilisation, the bulk of Russians don't care how many kids from poor villages in eastern Russia die but they will care when rich kids from western Russia start coming home in body bags.

My guess is that Putin knows this and it is the primary reason Russia hasn't mobilised but he can't keep losing troops and material at the rate they are or they will struggle to maintain any momentum.

I did find this rather interesting...

https://uawire.org/more-than-1-000-russian-troops-encircled-by-ukrainian-forces-in-kherson-region#
 
MontyB said:
The only way to get rid of Putin is force him into a general mobilisation, the bulk of Russians don't care how many kids from poor villages in eastern Russia die but they will care when rich kids from western Russia start coming home in body bags.

My guess is that Putin knows this and it is the primary reason Russia hasn't mobilised but he can't keep losing troops and material at the rate they are or they will struggle to maintain any momentum.

I did find this rather interesting...

https://uawire.org/more-than-1-000-russian-troops-encircled-by-ukrainian-forces-in-kherson-region#
Click to expand...

That is interesting and if I remember correctly, didn't the Russians deploy their T-62s to the southern sector?

I also heard something interesting. I have argued for the destruction of the Crimean bridge (the Ukrainians cannot do that right now, maybe with HIMARS most powerful missile) The former president of Ukraine said something about that bridge "We (Ukraine) want to keep the bridge to provide with an escape route for the Russians when we recapture Crimea"
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
That is interesting and if I remember correctly, didn't the Russians deploy their T-62s to the southern sector?

I also heard something interesting. I have argued for the destruction of the Crimean bridge (the Ukrainians cannot do that right now, maybe with HIMARS most powerful missile) The former president of Ukraine said something about that bridge "We (Ukraine) want to keep the bridge to provide with an escape route for the Russians when we recapture Crimea"
Click to expand...

I don't see why if they have the accuracy they couldn't just take out the rail bridge, forcing the Russians to truck everything would consume a lot of resources.

With regard to the report, I am inclined to be skeptical of the claims as I can't find any corroborating reports but there is little doubt they are making some progress in the south since taking out the bridges in the area.
 
MontyB said:
I don't see why if they have the accuracy they couldn't just take out the rail bridge, forcing the Russians to truck everything would consume a lot of resources.

With regard to the report, I am inclined to be skeptical of the claims as I can't find any corroborating reports but there is little doubt they are making some progress in the south since taking out the bridges in the area.
Click to expand...

I think it has to do with the firing distance of the weapons the Ukrainians have available to hit the bridge. They can maybe use drones for it but can the drones carry missiles powerful enough to take out the bridge? If they get the missiles with the range and powerful enough to do it, they might do it soon. But I guess the different logistical hubs elsewhere are higher on the Ukrainian "to do" list.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I think it has to do with the firing distance of the weapons the Ukrainians have available to hit the bridge. They can maybe use drones for it but can the drones carry missiles powerful enough to take out the bridge? If they get the missiles with the range and powerful enough to do it, they might do it soon. But I guess the different logistical hubs elsewhere are higher on the Ukrainian "to do" list.
Click to expand...

As far as logistical hubs go stopping Russian use of the rail section of that bridge should rate highly as it forces all military and civilian traffic into Crimea onto vehicles and that would be one hell of a traffic foul up.
I am proposing hitting just the rail bridge so as to increase Russian maintenance requirements (fuel, vehicle deterioration, logistics personnel numbers) as far from the front as possible on top of that they will still have to feed and convince the population of Crimea that everything is under control and running to plan.

Another article I found interesting regarding the reasons for the war...

https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/183514
 
MontyB said:
As far as logistical hubs go stopping Russian use of the rail section of that bridge should rate highly as it forces all military and civilian traffic into Crimea onto vehicles and that would be one hell of a traffic foul up.
I am proposing hitting just the rail bridge so as to increase Russian maintenance requirements (fuel, vehicle deterioration, logistics personnel numbers) as far from the front as possible on top of that they will still have to feed and convince the population of Crimea that everything is under control and running to plan.

Another article I found interesting regarding the reasons for the war...

https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/183514
Click to expand...

Yes, if the Ukrainians can force the Russian to use trucks instead of the railroad would help the Ukrainians. If they can hit the railroad hubs in Russia would also be beneficial for the Ukrainians. If the bridge is attacked, the people in Crimea may begin to questioning if everything is going according to the plan
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, if the Ukrainians can force the Russian to use trucks instead of the railroad would help the Ukrainians. If they can hit the railroad hubs in Russia would also be beneficial for the Ukrainians. If the bridge is attacked, the people in Crimea may begin to questioning if everything is going according to the plan
Click to expand...

I certainly think getting information to the general Russian populace would help Ukraine's cause as well.
 
MontyB said:
I certainly think getting information to the general Russian populace would help Ukraine's cause as well.
Click to expand...

I haven't looked at the Russian casualty figures for awhile and of course we can't trust the data anyway. However, the Russian government cannot hide the high amount of casualties. If the Russian mothers got pissed about the losses in Afghanistan, they will be furies about what happens to their sons in Ukraine
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I haven't looked at the Russian casualty figures for awhile and of course we can't trust the data anyway. However, the Russian government cannot hide the high amount of casualties. If the Russian mothers got pissed about the losses in Afghanistan, they will be furies about what happens to their sons in Ukraine
Click to expand...

I am not sure we can't trust the data, certainly Ukrainian estimates are exaggerated but the Oryx and NATO estimates I suspect are fairly accurate.
Obviously they are not 100% but I doubt the Russians know the exact numbers either given how dubious their systems are.


Oryx methodology regarding equipment losses seems fairly robust.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top