Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

I've read a report that Ukraine has forced Russian troops off of Snake Island. Putin said ''It was a gesture of goodwill'' to pull Russian troops out'' :-o

In your opinions, do you think Putin will resort to nuclear weapons or would he be disposed of before that could happen?
 
BritinBritain said:
I've read a report that Ukraine has forced Russian troops off of Snake Island. Putin said ''It was a gesture of goodwill'' to pull Russian troops out'' :-o

In your opinions, do you think Putin will resort to nuclear weapons or would he be disposed of before that could happen?
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I was a bit concerned when the Russians withdraw from Kiev. It looked like a withdraw to utilize a nuke. It never happened so I pleased. I doubt he will use a nuke, the political price is too high.
 
BritinBritain said:
I've read a report that Ukraine has forced Russian troops off of Snake Island. Putin said ''It was a gesture of goodwill'' to pull Russian troops out'' :-o

In your opinions, do you think Putin will resort to nuclear weapons or would he be disposed of before that could happen?
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I can't see it at this stage.
The simple reality is that MAD works and while I doubt Putin cares a great deal about the Russian people he knows that neither he nor Russia will survive that action.

I think the biggest threat of nuclear action would come if Belarus decides to enter the war.
 
MontyB said:
I can't see it at this stage.
The simple reality is that MAD works and while I doubt Putin cares a great deal about the Russian people he knows that neither he nor Russia will survive that action.

I think the biggest threat of nuclear action would come if Belarus decides to enter the war.
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Why if Belarus enters? Vs Moldova if they took out the Russian troops in their Country & came to Ukraine's help because of the map showing Russia taking their coast?
 
George said:
Why if Belarus enters? Vs Moldova if they took out the Russian troops in their Country & came to Ukraine's help because of the map showing Russia taking their coast?
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Moldova won't invade Ukraine, at best Russian troops in Transnistria may coordinate something with Russian troops coming out of Kherson (one of the reasons I think a Ukrainian offensive in the south is important), the only country likely to come to Russias aid is Belarus and if they do then I think the west should and probably would get involved and once they do then Putin may panic and anything could happen.

But despite the risk of major escalation I think the west should make Belarusian entry into the war a condition for putting troops into western Ukraine at least that way we can at least prevent Ukraine from being stabbed in the back.
 
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MontyB said:
Moldova won't invade Ukraine, at best Russian troops in Transnistria may coordinate something with Russian troops coming out of Kherson (one of the reasons I think a Ukrainian offensive in the south is important), the only country likely to come to Russias aid is Belarus and if they do then I think the west should and probably would get involved and once they do then Putin may panic and anything could happen.

But despite the risk of major escalation I think the west should make Belarusian entry into the war a condition for putting troops into western Ukraine at least that way we can at least prevent Ukraine from being stabbed in the back.
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Was thinking in the opposite direction. Moldova has been considered pro-Putin and has allowed Russian troops in the Transnistria, but..what if the map showing Russia annexing their coast might cause a change of position, order the Russians out or actively join Ukraine in self defence...
 
George said:
Was thinking in the opposite direction. Moldova has been considered pro-Putin and has allowed Russian troops in the Transnistria, but..what if the map showing Russia annexing their coast might cause a change of position, order the Russians out or actively join Ukraine in self defence...
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The current Moldovan government is by all accounts pro-Europe and was given EU candidacy with Ukraine, Britain has even been offering to equip them with NATO standard weapons.
From what I gather Transnistria is another breakaway region that Russia seems to claim.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/tr...top-threat-invasion-by-russia-the-2022-05-20/
 
George said:
Was thinking in the opposite direction. Moldova has been considered pro-Putin and has allowed Russian troops in the Transnistria, but..what if the map showing Russia annexing their coast might cause a change of position, order the Russians out or actively join Ukraine in self defence...
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Here is an example of what I suspect is Russian games to drag Belarus into the war...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/2/7356018/
 
Russia hits a supermarket killing 19 people, then complains when Ukraine hits Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukraine border, killing three people.

It appears Russia is suffering a number of calamitous incidents, they scored an own goal when one of their fleet was sunk by one of their own mines, a grain carrier has broken down in Turkish waters, return to sender! Russian surface-to-air missile does a U-TURN and smashes into the troops who fired it in spectacular malfunction, on top of that the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Kuznetsov (Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Kuznetsov).
The cursed carrier – technically a heavy aircraft cruiser – has been undergoing a refit since 2018, and it is much like a junker that is back in the shop.

However, in its case, it has been undergoing repairs for years.

Initially scheduled to return to duty by 2020, the warship has suffered what can only be described as a series of unfortunate mishaps. Yet as recently as last month, there were reports that the Admiral Kuznetsov would finally begin sea trials in September.

Clearly, however, someone spoke too soon.

This week, it was reported that the aircraft cruiser has suffered another repair delay and won’t likely reenter service until 2024… at the earliest! A source in the Russian defense sector told state media that there have been defects in the work that has already been completed on the vessel, and as such Admiral Kuznetsov will remain in dry dock for longer than initially planned.

If I were Putin I'd call it a day and go home
 
I would say the Ukrainian won the first phase of this war. This phase is going a bit different than the first one. The war has turned into a war of attrition and artillery duels, which is beneficial for the Russians when they have much more of everything and can hit the Ukrainians with long range artillery. The Ukrainians cannot counter the Russian artillery yet. The Russian artillery is, however, showing signs of fatigue and lacking modern target finding systems. It seems the Russians are bringing old artillery systems into service. The Ukrainians are on lacking the amount of artillery systems to counter the Russian artillery and must deal with a delay when they need to be trained to use western equipment.
 
BritinBritain said:
Russia hits a supermarket killing 19 people, then complains when Ukraine hits Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukraine border, killing three people.

It appears Russia is suffering a number of calamitous incidents, they scored an own goal when one of their fleet was sunk by one of their own mines, a grain carrier has broken down in Turkish waters, return to sender! Russian surface-to-air missile does a U-TURN and smashes into the troops who fired it in spectacular malfunction, on top of that the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Kuznetsov (Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Kuznetsov).
The cursed carrier – technically a heavy aircraft cruiser – has been undergoing a refit since 2018, and it is much like a junker that is back in the shop.

However, in its case, it has been undergoing repairs for years.

Initially scheduled to return to duty by 2020, the warship has suffered what can only be described as a series of unfortunate mishaps. Yet as recently as last month, there were reports that the Admiral Kuznetsov would finally begin sea trials in September.

Clearly, however, someone spoke too soon.

This week, it was reported that the aircraft cruiser has suffered another repair delay and won’t likely reenter service until 2024… at the earliest! A source in the Russian defense sector told state media that there have been defects in the work that has already been completed on the vessel, and as such Admiral Kuznetsov will remain in dry dock for longer than initially planned.

If I were Putin I'd call it a day and go home
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Surely they can sell it to India, they will do anything for a discount.
This war has been nothing but a complete disaster for Russia weapons systems and I imagine sales, by the end of this the only countries buying Russian weapons will be 3rd world dictatorships and terrorist organisation's with a death wish.

As for Putin calling it a day, what would be the point as he doesn't care how many Russians die to enrich him and his military can't sink a lot lower in every aspect than they already have, besides I don't think he has left a bunker since this began has he, say what you like about Zelensky at least he has hidden from the war.




I3BrigPvSk said:
I would say the Ukrainian won the first phase of this war. This phase is going a bit different than the first one. The war has turned into a war of attrition and artillery duels, which is beneficial for the Russians when they have much more of everything and can hit the Ukrainians with long range artillery. The Ukrainians cannot counter the Russian artillery yet. The Russian artillery is, however, showing signs of fatigue and lacking modern target finding systems. It seems the Russians are bringing old artillery systems into service. The Ukrainians are on lacking the amount of artillery systems to counter the Russian artillery and must deal with a delay when they need to be trained to use western equipment.
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I would have thought many of the western trained troops would be ready to go, although Britain is offering to train 10000 a month so who knows.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
I would say the Ukrainian won the first phase of this war. This phase is going a bit different than the first one. The war has turned into a war of attrition and artillery duels, which is beneficial for the Russians when they have much more of everything and can hit the Ukrainians with long range artillery. The Ukrainians cannot counter the Russian artillery yet. The Russian artillery is, however, showing signs of fatigue and lacking modern target finding systems. It seems the Russians are bringing old artillery systems into service. The Ukrainians are on lacking the amount of artillery systems to counter the Russian artillery and must deal with a delay when they need to be trained to use western equipment.
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On the Sunday TV news programs a US Vet volunteer said the Russians are now hunting Ukrainians with drones in the East.
 
George said:
Belarus President says all of Europe might be next. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=afb036e5645c46bb81f2c24cc7e3df9f
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To be honest I get the impression that these are two dictators doubling down on the rhetoric for the local market, they rattle the sabre, puff out their chests but at the end of the day the only weapon Russia has to stop NATO parking tanks in red square are nuclear ones and that is effectively a death sentence for everyone themselves included.

Let's be perfectly honest NATO is undergoing a major reinvigoration, if Russia thinks that the ragtag bunch of morons and thugs it calls an army is going to drive to London when they lost 35% of the countries armour trying to drive 150km to Kyiv and failed.
I guess the concern for the west is the surprisingly poor state of the German military in terms of equipment and procurement.

German issues
 
MontyB said:
To be honest I get the impression that these are two dictators doubling down on the rhetoric for the local market, they rattle the sabre, puff out their chests but at the end of the day the only weapon Russia has to stop NATO parking tanks in red square are nuclear ones and that is effectively a death sentence for everyone themselves included.

Let's be perfectly honest NATO is undergoing a major reinvigoration, if Russia thinks that the ragtag bunch of morons and thugs it calls an army is going to drive to London when they lost 35% of the countries armour trying to drive 150km to Kyiv and failed.
I guess the concern for the west is the surprisingly poor state of the German military in terms of equipment and procurement.

German issues
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Quite frankly I'm gobsmacked, I thought South African military and corrupt ANC government was bad and inept.

Whenever I've come across the Germany Army on exercise in Germany they were a professional and capable Army or at least seemed they were..

I hope they sort themselves out in the face of Russian aggression.
 
BritinBritain said:
Quite frankly I'm gobsmacked, I thought South African military and corrupt ANC government was bad and inept.

Whenever I've come across the Germany Army on exercise in Germany they were a professional and capable Army or at least seemed they were..

I hope they sort themselves out in the face of Russian aggression.
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I think it worth pointing out:
A. I don't think it is corruption but rather typical German "over engineering ", they have become so busy crossing the t's and dotting the i's that they never get anything done.

B. He does point out that German servicemen are well trained and professional it is just a lack of equipment.
 
There's been a number of articles the last few years saying the Navy and Luftwaffe look a lot better on paper than as an operational force.
 
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