Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

MontyB said:
I have a feeling Erdogan is playing a game and in the end both will be admitted to NATO, Turkey needs American aircraft and weaponry and the US wants Sweden and Finland in NATO, the funny thing is that your best friend in all of this is Greece and it's objection to Turkey getting the aircraft.

My guess is that Greece gets the F-35 in return Turkey gets the F-16s, Sweden sells some weaponry to Turkey and Turkey drops it's objections, but until this happens Erdogan plays the tough guy for the home crowd.

Basically this is Turkeys only bargaining chip they have to make the most of it.
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Yes, you are probably right. Sweden hasn't sold a lot of weapons to Turkey before. Turkey has a rather big defense industry so they don't need to buy Swedish stuff. There is an election in Turkey pretty soon and Erdogan needs to improve his rating so he does what must politicians with a dwindling support, creates something that makes him look tough and strong to get support.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, you are probably right. Sweden hasn't sold a lot of weapons to Turkey before. Turkey has a rather big defense industry so they don't need to buy Swedish stuff. There is an election in Turkey pretty soon and Erdogan needs to improve his rating so he does what must politicians with a dwindling support, creates something that makes him look tough and strong to get support.
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Yes but let's face it ATGMS are the weapon of the week and Sweden does produce a desirable one of those, Erdogan is a politician slip him a few bucks and he will sign off on anything while denying any involvement.

There is of course the other option, Turkey says no, USA decides not to sell fighters to Turkey and expresses dissatisfaction with the decision prior to Turkish elections and Erdogan looks less powerful especially with an angry Russia not that far away and elections become a bit more contested.

I believe both NATO and the US want Sweden/Finland in NATO (specifically Finland given it's geographical position) and will give what ever sweeteners or threats needed to Turkey to make it happen but the political BS needs to happen first.
 
The Ukrainians get the long range artillery system. The Russians are successful in Donbas when they are concentrating their forces to one geographical area.

Do the Ukrainians have the man power and the weaponry to stop the Russian offensive?

The war elsewhere seems to be in a war of attrition, Russia has more men and military tools, can they win this type of war. However, how much more can or rather are the Russians willing to take? They have suffered a huge amount of casualties, their economy has more or less crashed. The morale among the Russian troops seem to be low.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Ukrainians get the long range artillery system. The Russians are successful in Donbas when they are concentrating their forces to one geographical area.

Do the Ukrainians have the man power and the weaponry to stop the Russian offensive?

The war elsewhere seems to be in a war of attrition, Russia has more men and military tools, can they win this type of war. However, how much more can or rather are the Russians willing to take? They have suffered a huge amount of casualties, their economy has more or less crashed. The morale among the Russian troops seem to be low.
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It is hard to know what Russia has left in terms of material, on paper it has tons but on the battlefield it seems they are running on empty, there are rumours that Belarus is giving it's armour to Russia.

Manpower wise I get the impression Putin is desperate to avoid a general mobilisation as that puts the kids of western Russia in uniform, up until now this war seems to be being fought by dumb arses from the poor areas of eastern Russia. As soon as they start calling up conscripts from the wealthy urban part of Russia dissention will start to grow and I believe they are trying hard to avoid this.

I also see rumours of Russian troops build ups north of Kiev again, I assume this is to tie up Ukrainian forces defending the area but it would be interesting to see whether they have enough left to open yet another front.

On the whole it really doesn't matter how Ukraine works out for Russia now, it's military is pretty much relegated to a second tier power and there is nothing they can achieve in Ukraine that is going to change that.
 
MontyB said:
It is hard to know what Russia has left in terms of material, on paper it has tons but on the battlefield it seems they are running on empty, there are rumours that Belarus is giving it's armour to Russia.

Manpower wise I get the impression Putin is desperate to avoid a general mobilisation as that puts the kids of western Russia in uniform, up until now this war seems to be being fought by dumb arses from the poor areas of eastern Russia. As soon as they start calling up conscripts from the wealthy urban part of Russia dissention will start to grow and I believe they are trying hard to avoid this.

I also see rumours of Russian troops build ups north of Kiev again, I assume this is to tie up Ukrainian forces defending the area but it would be interesting to see whether they have enough left to open yet another front.

On the whole it really doesn't matter how Ukraine works out for Russia now, it's military is pretty much relegated to a second tier power and there is nothing they can achieve in Ukraine that is going to change that.
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The Russian ability to wage war somewhere else or as you said elsewhere in Ukraine is probably reduced. The sanctions may also reduce their ability to replace all the losses. It will take a long time to build up their forces to the numbers they had prior the war.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
The Russian ability to wage war somewhere else or as you said elsewhere in Ukraine is probably reduced. The sanctions may also reduce their ability to replace all the losses. It will take a long time to build up their forces to the numbers they had prior the war.
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There are a number of unknowns yet to play out though:
Russia effectively can only get weaker, it needs to replace troop loses but can't or won't mobilize fully which means it isn't getting a large influx of troops to train nor are the recruits it is getting receiving full training and sanctions are hitting it's arms industry so it is struggling to equip what it gets.
On top of this corruption is rife through out the system which leads to substandard training and equipment.

Ukraine on the other hand, as long as it can survive the next couple of months will be seeing the recruits from the start of this war arriving at the front after receiving western training and equipment.

Effectively without Russia mobilising fully everything it trains goes to maintaining it's combat strength while Ukraine builds it's combat strength and receives better equipment (I would be exceedingly surprised if there isn't a couple of Ukrainian squadrons learning to fly the F-16 somewhere).

So how does it end?
There are problems here as well, the further Russia pushes west the less likely Ukraine will negotiate and if they are getting stronger then why would you negotiate with a country you know will be back in 4-5 years for another slice of territory.

Putin has the problem of a "special military operation" that was going to last a week tops if you include the victory parades has become a WW1 artillery slogging match and the army the world once feared as an all conquering armoured juggernaut now looks more like a Blackadder goes forth comedy skit, instead of generating fear it generates internet memes.

A lot of people think this will end when Putin reaches his goal and decides to declare an end but it won't end until Ukraine agrees to stop as well, I could see the possibility of Ukraine writing off Crimea and Donbas but it would have to come with concessions from the Russians which I suspect would be Ukraine receiving peacekeepers and membership of some cast iron defence agreements with the west.
I don't see Ukraine accepting any peace deals if Odessa is lost though.
 
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While international media continues to report on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is an underlying narrative that merits more attention. In this piece for Project O Five, my colleague Siddhant Hira - a current MA National Security Studies candidate at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London - takes a look at the media and narrative strategy that Ukraine's policymakers may have missed and could consider. Perhaps it is time to step up the ante and win the psychological battle. #strategy #ukraine #russia #military #narrative #tactics

Should Ukraine Refine Its Media And Narrative Strategy?
 
Tuan said:
While international media continues to report on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is an underlying narrative that merits more attention. In this piece for Project O Five, my colleague Siddhant Hira - a current MA National Security Studies candidate at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London - takes a look at the media and narrative strategy that Ukraine's policymakers may have missed and could consider. Perhaps it is time to step up the ante and win the psychological battle. #strategy #ukraine #russia #military #narrative #tactics

Should Ukraine Refine Its Media And Narrative Strategy?
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I am not sure much of this isn't already being done but I think it misses the one untapped market so to speak...
Information needs to getting to Russians themselves, currently Putin has managed to control the narrative within Russia and until that changes it really doesn't matter how Ukraine pushes it's story.

I think the key to ending this mess lies in getting the population of western Russia (the bulk of the educated population) to understand the reality of the war.

I do agree with this editorial 100%.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ns-ukrainians-to-an-agonising-war-without-end
 
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Russia-controlled so-called DNR Republic leader Pushilin said, that DNR is to confiscate cargo of 15,000 tons of steel slabs, loaded onto Bulgarian bulk carrier TSAREVNA. Bulk carrier has been stuck in Mariupol port, Ukraine, Azov sea, since the beginning of Russian invasion in Feb. Steel produced by Azovstal Mariupol, is destined for steel mills of San Giorgio di Nogaro, Monfalcone, Italy. Ship’s cost is $9 mil, slabs cost is $12 mil. Italy considers act of “nationalizing” foreign cargo by rogue DNR republic as an act of theft.
As if it’s not enough, Pushilin declared setting up of DNR own merchant marine fleet, to be based on merchant ships “confiscated” in occupied Mariupol Port, understood at least 5 cargo ships (plus probably, the sixth, TSAREVNA), stuck in port since Russian invasion. Among ships to be “nationalized” 3 ships are controlled or owned by Ukrainian companies, 1 by Turkish Company, and 1 by Lebanese company.

Russia meanwhile, is busy with taking out from Mariupol Port to Russia some 200,000 tons of steel stored in Port prior to invasion; and some 12,500 tons of grain. The first shipment of 2,700 tons of steel was already loaded onto Russian freighter RM-3, to be transported to Rostov Port, Russia, Azov sea (understood RM-3, with AIS switched off, already reached Rostov, with stolen steel – to call things their true names).



Russia didn’t yet officially rebuke Pushilin’s claims. DNR iwith Pushilin on top, is under Russian control, so how to take this story, that Russia doesn’t mind? Pushilin doesn’t have any formal education except secondary, but instead, he has a criminal history, with participation in Russian finance pyramid scheme, MMM. Piracy and hijack, looting and criminal “confiscation” – nothing like what’s going on in Mariupol ever happened, on such a scale, in modern history

From Fleetmon
 
George said:
Russia-controlled so-called DNR Republic leader Pushilin said, that DNR is to confiscate cargo of 15,000 tons of steel slabs, loaded onto Bulgarian bulk carrier TSAREVNA. Bulk carrier has been stuck in Mariupol port, Ukraine, Azov sea, since the beginning of Russian invasion in Feb. Steel produced by Azovstal Mariupol, is destined for steel mills of San Giorgio di Nogaro, Monfalcone, Italy. Ship’s cost is $9 mil, slabs cost is $12 mil. Italy considers act of “nationalizing” foreign cargo by rogue DNR republic as an act of theft.
As if it’s not enough, Pushilin declared setting up of DNR own merchant marine fleet, to be based on merchant ships “confiscated” in occupied Mariupol Port, understood at least 5 cargo ships (plus probably, the sixth, TSAREVNA), stuck in port since Russian invasion. Among ships to be “nationalized” 3 ships are controlled or owned by Ukrainian companies, 1 by Turkish Company, and 1 by Lebanese company.

Russia meanwhile, is busy with taking out from Mariupol Port to Russia some 200,000 tons of steel stored in Port prior to invasion; and some 12,500 tons of grain. The first shipment of 2,700 tons of steel was already loaded onto Russian freighter RM-3, to be transported to Rostov Port, Russia, Azov sea (understood RM-3, with AIS switched off, already reached Rostov, with stolen steel – to call things their true names).



Russia didn’t yet officially rebuke Pushilin’s claims. DNR iwith Pushilin on top, is under Russian control, so how to take this story, that Russia doesn’t mind? Pushilin doesn’t have any formal education except secondary, but instead, he has a criminal history, with participation in Russian finance pyramid scheme, MMM. Piracy and hijack, looting and criminal “confiscation” – nothing like what’s going on in Mariupol ever happened, on such a scale, in modern history

From Fleetmon
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He also seems to have overlooked the fact that the minute these stolen ships show up in another countries waters they will be impounded and returned to their owners.

I seriously struggle to understand how a country the world saw as a superpower has been reduced to a bunch of thieves and pirates run by a petulant child, between Putin, Kadyrov and Lukashenko it is like a convention of the criminally insane.
 
When I was in Germany in the 1980's on exercise, with the TA I was looking at the portal axles of a German army unimog truck, the driver seeing my interest said ''The next time we go into Russia, the snow wont stop us''

I reckon he might get his wish.
 
George said:
Flying low https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/ne...sedgntp&cvid=9b38fa6fa8ce482ebf9c557735825c92
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I guess from the Ukrainian perspective, it doesn't matter how they hit the ground as long as they do it at speed.

George said:
Another Russian A.F. article https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=9b38fa6fa8ce482ebf9c557735825c92
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To be honest I just don't think the Russian air force ever really existed anywhere but on paper.
On paper they have around 2000 combat aircraft but given the high level of corruption I wouldn't be surprised if many of them never existed in the first place and a sizable portion of those that did have probably been cannibalised and sold on the black market to keep the base commander in vodka and hookers.

BritinBritain said:
When I was in Germany in the 1980's on exercise, with the TA I was looking at the portal axles of a German army unimog truck, the driver seeing my interest said ''The next time we go into Russia, the snow wont stop us''

I reckon he might get his wish.
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I have to admit if Putin stays in office I would be surprised if the west wasn't in a shooting match in the Baltic before the decade is out and I think we would be foolish if we were not preparing for it now.
 
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I3BrigPvSk said:
Yes, you are probably right. Sweden hasn't sold a lot of weapons to Turkey before. Turkey has a rather big defense industry so they don't need to buy Swedish stuff. There is an election in Turkey pretty soon and Erdogan needs to improve his rating so he does what must politicians with a dwindling support, creates something that makes him look tough and strong to get support.
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And there ya go, Turkey drops it's objections...

This is the Turkish media so it will be pro-Turkey but I chose it to show that the agreement is being sold as a done deal in Turkey (oh and it also seems I need to learn to spell Turkey as Turkiye).

https://www.dailysabah.com/politics...sign-memorandum-on-nordic-countries-nato-bids
 
MontyB said:
And there ya go, Turkey drops it's objections...

This is the Turkish media so it will be pro-Turkey but I chose it to show that the agreement is being sold as a done deal in Turkey (oh and it also seems I need to learn to spell Turkey as Turkiye).

https://www.dailysabah.com/politics...sign-memorandum-on-nordic-countries-nato-bids
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It was expected. We will see if the Turkiye (yes, it will take some time to spell it in the new way) gets into the F-35 program and the new and upgrades for their F-16s. The Turkish military probably wants to buy NLAW too.
 
I3BrigPvSk said:
It was expected. We will see if the Turkiye (yes, it will take some time to spell it in the new way) gets into the F-35 program and the new and upgrades for their F-16s. The Turkish military probably wants to buy NLAW too.
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I would be surprised if they get into the F-35 program but I expect the deal is for upgraded F-16s.
 
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