Thoughts on the Russo-Ukranian War?

[MontyB]

I am speculating so I guess he wants something from the US. It can be new fighter planes. the Russian air defense system he bought might not be that good as he thought. Maybe he wants to get US made air defense systems instead. The Turkish economy isn't that good so he does this to get military hardware without buying them. It can also be his way to punish Europe for how the EU treated Turkey in the past when they wanted to join EU, but EU denied it

My personal thoughts about Erdogan are; He seems to want to reestablish the Ottoman empire. He is quite similar in this regard to Putin. The failed coup did something with him, he sounds quite paranoid at times

They did want to be involved in the F-35 program but got booted from that, my understanding is that they also want more F-16s but Greece is not enthusiastic about that so I guess it is possible that the US will sell them F-16s in return for Turkey dropping it's objection to Finland and Sweden joining NATO with Greece being pacified with entry to the F-35 program (although I doubt Greece can afford them).

I suspect the Turkish coup was a bit of a setup by Erdogan himself to cement his position as it was conducted so ineptly it never really had any chance of success and the aftermath was a clean out of any opposition.

In other developments, this could get get messy but I think it is the right idea...

https://gcaptain.com/support-grows-for-naval-escorts-for-ukraine-grain/

And who knows another 3 months of fighting in Ukraine and the T-34 may make a comeback, seems they are down to the T-62 now.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-deploys-50-year-old-t-62-tanks-to-ukraine-front

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

They did want to be involved in the F-35 program but got booted from that, my understanding is that they also want more F-16s but Greece is not enthusiastic about that so I guess it is possible that the US will sell them F-16s in return for Turkey dropping it's objection to Finland and Sweden joining NATO with Greece being pacified with entry to the F-35 program (although I doubt Greece can afford them).

I suspect the Turkish coup was a bit of a setup by Erdogan himself to cement his position as it was conducted so ineptly it never really had any chance of success and the aftermath was a clean out of any opposition.

In other developments, this could get get messy but I think it is the right idea...

https://gcaptain.com/support-grows-for-naval-escorts-for-ukraine-grain/

And who knows another 3 months of fighting in Ukraine and the T-34 may make a comeback, seems they are down to the T-62 now.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-deploys-50-year-old-t-62-tanks-to-ukraine-front

I have never looked into why the Turkish coup, but it helped Erdogan a lot to get rid of the opposition.

I read about escorting ships from Ukraine and the Ukrainians getting Harpoon missiles. The Russian have taking a dump in the blue cupboard with launching the war. Taking a dump in the blue cupboard is a Swedish expression about screwing things up badly.

T62s, huh. I haven't cared much about the Ukrainian data about how many tanks the Russian have lost in Ukraine. They have lost a lot of tanks and other vehicles. I am not completely surprised after seeing the Russian using old BMP1s, which are more or less old as the T62.

 

[MontyB]

I have never looked into why the Turkish coup, but it helped Erdogan a lot to get rid of the opposition.

I read about escorting ships from Ukraine and the Ukrainians getting Harpoon missiles. The Russian have taking a dump in the blue cupboard with launching the war. Taking a dump in the blue cupboard is a Swedish expression about screwing things up badly.

T62s, huh. I haven't cared much about the Ukrainian data about how many tanks the Russian have lost in Ukraine. They have lost a lot of tanks and other vehicles. I am not completely surprised after seeing the Russian using old BMP1s, which are more or less old as the T62.

I see Russia has offered to open some shipping lanes for food shipments in return for sanctions relief, I am opposed to this and would sooner see western navies take on the escort role I don't want to see Russia blackmail it's way out of responsibility for this war.

https://caspiannews.com/news-detail...-in-return-for-sanctions-relief-2022-5-25-51/

At this stage I would sooner us join the war than let Putin win.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I see Russia has offered to open some shipping lanes for food shipments in return for sanctions relief, I am opposed to this and would sooner see western navies take on the escort role I don't want to see Russia blackmail it's way out of responsibility for this war.

https://caspiannews.com/news-detail...-in-return-for-sanctions-relief-2022-5-25-51/

At this stage I would sooner us join the war than let Putin win.

It is much better if the NATO navies begin to escorting ships to and from Odessa than easing up the the sanctions.

 

[MontyB]

It is much better if the NATO navies begin to escorting ships to and from Odessa than easing up the the sanctions.

The only issue is what the mission would entail, I assume it would only be to safeguard "civilian" and humanitarian cargo's as anything else would be tantamount to going to war with Russia.

So how do you arrange inspections of in bound ships in such a way to keep the Russians "happy" that they are not carry arms, alternatively do you just give Putin the finger and take over the Black Sea at the end of the day Ukraine's application to join NATO is still current.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

The only issue is what the mission would entail, I assume it would only be to safeguard "civilian" and humanitarian cargo's as anything else would be tantamount to going to war with Russia.

So how do you arrange inspections of in bound ships in such a way to keep the Russians "happy" that they are not carry arms, alternatively do you just give Putin the finger and take over the Black Sea at the end of the day Ukraine's application to join NATO is still current.

Can the Russian navy take control over the Black Sea? I thought the vicious Ukrainian tractor force had towed all the Russian ships to secret location.

 

[MontyB]

Can the Russian navy take control over the Black Sea? I thought the vicious Ukrainian tractor force had towed all the Russian ships to secret location.

In most armies you get medals for achieving thing on a battlefield, the Ukrainians have gone one step further...

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

So where are we right now. The Ukrainian offensive around Kharkiv continues and can maybe cut off the Russian supply lines to the Russian forces around Izyum. Russian forces are advancing in the northern Donbass, but the progress is pretty slow and the Ukrainians are inflicting heavy casualties on the Russian forces.

The Ukrainians are also counterattacking around the city Kherson in the south. I still want the Ukrainian to take out the bridge between Crimea and Russia.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

In most armies you get medals for achieving thing on a battlefield, the Ukrainians have gone one step further...

So David Attenborough was referring to the Ukrainian tractors (dangerous predators, watch out if you see any where you live) in the mockumentary about Russian tanks are going to Ukraine to die.

 

[MontyB]

So where are we right now. The Ukrainian offensive around Kharkiv continues and can maybe cut off the Russian supply lines to the Russian forces around Izyum. Russian forces are advancing in the northern Donbass, but the progress is pretty slow and the Ukrainians are inflicting heavy casualties on the Russian forces.

The Ukrainians are also counterattacking around the city Kherson in the south. I still want the Ukrainian to take out the bridge between Crimea and Russia.

I am not sure there is a plan to take out the Kerch straight bridge, I personally think the Kharkiv counter offensive was a pointless exercise that did little except waste resources as there was nothing of strategic value in holding the area.
I believe that the Ukrainians biggest threat was in the south and to a large degree this has proven to be the case, I think they should have thrown their limited offensive capabilities at Kherson and toward cutting the Crimean link as this would have cut the supply links to the whole southern Ukraine for the Russians.
Holding Kherson has not only allowed the Russians to maintain its offensive around Propasna which is threatening to cut off Ukrainian troops in the Luhansk region but also gives them a springboard to attack Odessa.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I am not sure there is a plan to take out the Kerch straight bridge, I personally think the Kharkiv counter offensive was a pointless exercise that did little except waste resources as there was nothing of strategic value in holding the area.
I believe that the Ukrainians biggest threat was in the south and to a large degree this has proven to be the case, I think they should have thrown their limited offensive capabilities at Kherson and toward cutting the Crimean link as this would have cut the supply links to the whole southern Ukraine for the Russians.
Holding Kherson has not only allowed the Russians to maintain its offensive around Propasna which is threatening to cut off Ukrainian troops in the Luhansk region but also gives them a springboard to attack Odessa.

I think the Ukrainians are thinking the offensive around Kharkiv has the goal to force the Russians to deploy forces to prevent the Ukrainians from cutting off the Russian supply lines to the forces north of the Luhansk region.

The counter offensive in the south has probably the goal to prevent the Russians from attacking Odessa. The Ukrainian forces can focus more on the the Russian ground forces now when the risk for a Russian amphibious attack has decreased. Especially if the Ukrainians get Harpoons from Denmark.

The war is in a stalemate, the Ukrainians are probably waiting to get MLRS systems to fight back against Russian MLRS systems.

It is rather strange. The Russians are deploying T-62s, I have seen old BMP1s for awhile. Have the Ukrainians inflicted that amount of vehicle losses so they are forced to take out T-62s from storage. Russia must save some of its best units if the this war escalate to a conflict with NATO

 

[MontyB]

I think the Ukrainians are thinking the offensive around Kharkiv has the goal to force the Russians to deploy forces to prevent the Ukrainians from cutting off the Russian supply lines to the forces north of the Luhansk region.

The counter offensive in the south has probably the goal to prevent the Russians from attacking Odessa. The Ukrainian forces can focus more on the the Russian ground forces now when the risk for a Russian amphibious attack has decreased. Especially if the Ukrainians get Harpoons from Denmark.

The war is in a stalemate, the Ukrainians are probably waiting to get MLRS systems to fight back against Russian MLRS systems.

It is rather strange. The Russians are deploying T-62s, I have seen old BMP1s for awhile. Have the Ukrainians inflicted that amount of vehicle losses so they are forced to take out T-62s from storage. Russia must save some of its best units if the this war escalate to a conflict with NATO

Well according to Oryx, Russia has lost around 740 MBTs which is almost their entire operational tank force in Western Russia prior to the war, let's face if they had more modern tanks available they would be using them.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

I expect that you are right about the Ukrainian aims in the north but it was rather short sighted as the Russians can just retreat back into Russia, reform and return as Ukraine can't cross the border meanwhile Kherson is the rail hub for the Russian advance in the south if they lose that they have to truck supplies to support their whole southern operation.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I have been thinking about the Harpoon missiles and these missiles make me think the Ukrainians are planning to open up the Black Sea for their shipping. Russia has already lost two major ships and some smaller ones. I also think the Ukrainians don't need to be worried about the Russian air power in that area. The air force is somewhere else, I actually read the Russian air force doesn't have a lot of guided munition left and that makes the air force lesser likely to hit what the air force want to hit. To achieve a greater probability to hit, they must fly much lower and that makes them vulnerable to the Ukrainian air defense.

 

[MontyB]

I have been thinking about the Harpoon missiles and these missiles make me think the Ukrainians are planning to open up the Black Sea for their shipping. Russia has already lost two major ships and some smaller ones. I also think the Ukrainians don't need to be worried about the Russian air power in that area. The air force is somewhere else, I actually read the Russian air force doesn't have a lot of guided munition left and that makes the air force lesser likely to hit what the air force want to hit. To achieve a greater probability to hit, they must fly much lower and that makes them vulnerable to the Ukrainian air defense.

I don't think Ukraine can use Harpoons to keep shipping lanes open as the minute commercial shipping enters the area the Russians will use them as cover, there is no doubt that the missiles will keep the Russian navy at bay but shipping will still need to be escorted, on top of this one of the Russian demands for opening the Black Sea was that Ukraine had to demine it's ports which makes them vulnerable to attack and we know how little Russia cares about international law or conventions.

At this stage I am convinced that a naval escort program (similar to what is used around the straights of Hormuz and gulf of Aden) is the only way to go.


The Harpoons worry me a little as their presence may be the excuse Russia will use to continue it's offensive toward Odessa.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I don't think Ukraine can use Harpoons to keep shipping lanes open as the minute commercial shipping enters the area the Russians will use them as cover, there is no doubt that the missiles will keep the Russian navy at bay but shipping will still need to be escorted, on top of this one of the Russian demands for opening the Black Sea was that Ukraine had to demine it's ports which makes them vulnerable to attack and we know how little Russia cares about international law or conventions.

At this stage I am convinced that a naval escort program (similar to what is used around the straights of Hormuz and gulf of Aden) is the only way to go.


The Harpoons worry me a little as their presence may be the excuse Russia will use to continue it's offensive toward Odessa.

Harpoons can be fired from surface ships, submarines, and aircrafts. Can the Ukrainians use them on their Turkish drones?

 

[MontyB]

Harpoons can be fired from surface ships, submarines, and aircrafts. Can the Ukrainians use them on their Turkish drones?

Yes but my suspicion is that Russian ships will get as close as they can to the commercial vessels and hope like hell a Harpoon hits one or that Ukraine won't fire while they can.
The Harpoons will allow Ukraine to push Russian ships further back and that is a good thing but the presence of unescorted civilian ships in the area will provide the Russians with cover.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

Yes but my suspicion is that Russian ships will get as close as they can to the commercial vessels and hope like hell a Harpoon hits one or that Ukraine won't fire while they can.
The Harpoons will allow Ukraine to push Russian ships further back and that is a good thing but the presence of unescorted civilian ships in the area will provide the Russians with cover.

I think you are correct, some sort of convoys between Odessa to Turkish waters would be the best.

 

[MontyB]

I think you are correct, some sort of convoys between Odessa to Turkish waters would be the best.

I think cargo vessels heading in should be inspected in the Bosphorus by a joint Russian/NATO approved group for weapons (which for safety sake may have to include tractors)and then escorted into Ukrainian ports by Western naval units probably based at Constanta in Romania.

 

[I3BrigPvSk]

I think cargo vessels heading in should be inspected in the Bosphorus by a joint Russian/NATO approved group for weapons (which for safety sake may have to include tractors)and then escorted into Ukrainian ports by Western naval units probably based at Constanta in Romania.

When this war is over, all countries will buy Ukrainian tractors.

I find the Turkish objection to let Finland and Sweden to join NATO interesting. I think they will use their veto to stop Sweden, maybe they will agree with letting Finland to join. We can sell them more weapons and stop the economic support to YPG, but Sweden will never extradite Kurds and other of Erdogan's political opponents residing in Sweden. Turkey isn't completely wrong about YPG and its connection with PKK.

 

[MontyB]

When this war is over, all countries will buy Ukrainian tractors.

I find the Turkish objection to let Finland and Sweden to join NATO interesting. I think they will use their veto to stop Sweden, maybe they will agree with letting Finland to join. We can sell them more weapons and stop the economic support to YPG, but Sweden will never extradite Kurds and other of Erdogan's political opponents residing in Sweden. Turkey isn't completely wrong about YPG and its connection with PKK.

I have a feeling Erdogan is playing a game and in the end both will be admitted to NATO, Turkey needs American aircraft and weaponry and the US wants Sweden and Finland in NATO, the funny thing is that your best friend in all of this is Greece and it's objection to Turkey getting the aircraft.

My guess is that Greece gets the F-35 in return Turkey gets the F-16s, Sweden sells some weaponry to Turkey and Turkey drops it's objections, but until this happens Erdogan plays the tough guy for the home crowd.

Basically this is Turkeys only bargaining chip they have to make the most of it.