South China Sea - Another Flashpoint

Another flashpoint brewing in South China Sea. Read link below.

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/armed-conflict-possible-south-china-sea-icg-003148139.html

I guess, this is where China might use their recently acquired aircraft carrier. :m16shoot:

This is what happens when you have the big bully with ridiculous demands and actions. China is like the neighbour who wants to show off its recent jewelry purchase to its other neighbour....

The day you see the chinese carrier deployed to that location is the day you see me elected President of Phillipines- it will never happen, pare... One is the fact that such a valuable asset would be wasted on a insignificant location, and two, they don't have anyone giving them directions... :)
 
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This info comes from here.

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This “string of pearls” strategy of bases and diplomatic ties includes the Gwadar port in Pakistan, naval bases in Burma, electronic intelligence gathering facilities on islands in the Bay of Bengal, funding construction of a canal across the Kra Isthmus in Thailand, a military agreement with Cambodia and building up of forces in the South China Sea.7 These “pearls” are to help build strategic ties with several countries along the sea lanes from the Middle East to the South China Sea in order to protect China’s energy interests and security objectives. Some of the claims are exaggerated, as has been the case with the purported Chinese naval presence in Burma. The Indian government, for example, had to concede in 2005 that reports of China turning the Coco Islands in Burma into a naval base were incorrect and that there were indeed no naval bases in Burma.

Still, the Chinese thrust into the Indian Ocean is gradually becoming more pronounced. The Chinese may not have a naval base in Burma but they are involved in upgrading of infrastructure in the Coco Islands and may be providing some limited technical assistance to Burma.

With almost 80 percent of China’s oil passing through the Strait of Malacca, given its reluctance to rely on US naval power for unhindered access to energy, it has moved to build up its naval power at choke points along the sea routes from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea.

China is courting other states in South Asia by building container ports in Bangladesh at Chittagong and in Sri Lanka at Hambantota. Consolidating its access to the Indian Ocean, China has signed an agreement with Sri Lanka to finance the development of the Hambantota Development Zone at the southern tip of Sri Lanka, which includes a container port, a bunker system and an oil refinery. China’s activities at Marao in the Maldives have also generated apprehension in New Delhi.
 
Based on the info that VDKMS has provided, one can understand the Chinese desire to maintain somekind of control over the South Chinese Sea. You can control the sea channel. It is most probable that this is what the Chinese envisage.

The only problem is this- what you envisage and what you can do is two entirely different thing. This situation reminds me of a simple anology- don't get into a pissing contest if your williy is not big enough...
 
The day you see the chinese carrier deployed to that location is the day you see me elected President of Philipines- it will never happen, pare... One is the fact that such a valuable asset would be wasted on a insignificant location, and two, they don't have anyone giving them directions... :)


For my country's sake, I hope you're right. But worse case scenario, I don't think we can hold on to that real estate much as we want to. We are totally outgunned. I also don't think the U.S. will come to our rescue contrary to the belief of many of my countrymen. All countries will always think about their self-interest.
 
China has two very vulnerable lifelines. One is the oil shipping lane the other is the export of their cheap products.

The location of China makes it the more difficult to defend the oil shipping lane. When we look at the map we see that India (one of China's enemies with which they also have a border dispute) is like a thorn into China's oil shipping lane and one that'll be very difficult to defend. India has the notorious BrahMos missile (although never used in combat) which could endanger Chinese vessels.

Another weak point is the passing of Indonesia. The military value of that country is low but it has a big muslim population and we know how fast the muslim comminity is being upset (remember the cartoons), there's trouble in West China with the muslim population. Suicide bombers will not stop supertankers but will slow them down.

The second lifeline will be cut off in case of a military intervention from China in whatever country. A boycot will be one of the first measures of the West.

China doesn't have a comfortable situation. They can bully small nearby countries but when the going gets though they are in big trouble.
 
Rival countries have squabbled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries. It is a dispute over territory and sovereignty over ocean areas and the Paracels and the Spratlys - two island chains claimed in whole or in part by a number of countries. Alongside the fully fledged islands, there are dozens of uninhabited rocky outcrops, atolls, sandbanks and reefs, such as the Scarborough Shoal.

The Paracels and the Spratlys may have vast reserves of natural resources around them. There has been little detailed exploration of the area, so estimates are largely extrapolated from the mineral wealth of neighbouring areas.

Chinese officials have given the most optimistic estimates of resource wealth in the area. According to figures quoted by the US Energy Information Administration, one Chinese estimate puts possible oil reserves as high as 213 billion barrels - 10 times the proven reserves of the US. But American scientists have estimated the amount of oil at 28 billion barrels.

According to the EIA, the real wealth of the area may well be natural gas reserves. Estimates say the area holds about 900 trillion cubic ft (25 trillion cubic m) - the same as the proven reserves of Qatar. The area is also one of the region's main shipping lanes, and is home to a fishing ground that supplies the livelihoods of thousands of people.

Over the years, China has tended to favour arrangements negotiated behind closed doors with the individual leaders of other countries. But the other countries have pushed for international mediation. So in July 2010, when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton became involved in the debate and called for a binding code of conduct, China was not pleased. The Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed her suggestion as an attack on China.

Agreements such as the UN's 1982 convention appeared to lay the framework for a solution. But in practice, the convention led to more overlapping claims, and did nothing to deter China and Vietnam in pressing their historical claims.

Both the Philippines and Vietnam have made bilateral agreements with China, putting in place codes of conduct in the area. But the agreements have made little difference.

Under the agreement, the countries agreed to "resolve their territorial and jurisdictional disputes by peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force, through friendly consultations and negotiations". But recent events suggest that Vietnam and China at least have failed to stick to the spirit of that agreement.
 
For my country's sake, I hope you're right. But worse case scenario, I don't think we can hold on to that real estate much as we want to. We are totally outgunned. I also don't think the U.S. will come to our rescue contrary to the belief of many of my countrymen. All countries will always think about their self-interest.

Virago, I am sure that the Chinese know that, too. And that is the reason why they are so cocky in the manner they deal with the PI. Should the US intervene, it will be a added bonus...

One way to deal with this bully is to have ASEAN be involved. I think this is a good approach because it is not the PI who has issues with China, with regards to this area in dispute. Brunei, Vietnam, and if I am not mistaken, Malaysia has the same issue with China about this. We need to stand together to face this...
 
China has two very vulnerable lifelines. One is the oil shipping lane the other is the export of their cheap products.

The location of China makes it the more difficult to defend the oil shipping lane. When we look at the map we see that India (one of China's enemies with which they also have a border dispute) is like a thorn into China's oil shipping lane and one that'll be very difficult to defend. India has the notorious BrahMos missile (although never used in combat) which could endanger Chinese vessels.

Another weak point is the passing of Indonesia. The military value of that country is low but it has a big muslim population and we know how fast the muslim comminity is being upset (remember the cartoons), there's trouble in West China with the muslim population. Suicide bombers will not stop supertankers but will slow them down.

The second lifeline will be cut off in case of a military intervention from China in whatever country. A boycot will be one of the first measures of the West.

China doesn't have a comfortable situation. They can bully small nearby countries but when the going gets though they are in big trouble.


There is another factor that China needs to consider if this is the way of their thinking- the Strait of Malacca. To control that China has to do the unthinkable- subdue or even conquer those countries near that area. Somethink that even China would not do... They just do not have the clout...
 
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