Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Washington Times
December 1, 2006
Pg. 13
Security command out of reach
By Sharon Behn, Washington Times
Sectarian allegiances have weakened Iraq's army, say analysts who question assertions by the Bush administration that the military is free from the religious strife that riddles the police force.
Moreover, pushing the fledgling military to solve the country's vicious conflicts is not a realistic solution, and pulling out U.S. forces could open the way for a regional war, they warn.
"The capabilities of the Iraqi army, national police and police force have been systematically exaggerated," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
"The reality is that out of the supposed Iraqi battalions, which are formed and which are in the lead, only a small fraction actually exist and have combat capability," he said.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said yesterday that in seven months the Iraqi military would be ready to take over the country's security.
"I can say that Iraqi forces will be ready, fully ready, to receive this command and to command its own forces, and I can tell you that by next June our forces will be ready," he told ABC News.
Bob Perito, senior program officer at the United States Institute of Peace, questioned that assessment.
"They don't have any logistics, armor or support capacity. It is a light infantry with no heavy weapons, no lift," he said.
"The U.S. Marines are having trouble holding their own, and our soldiers are the best in the world. It is a little hard to see how recently trained Iraqis without all those things would do it," Mr. Perito said.
Although the Iraqi army largely has stayed out of the sectarian violence, he said, sectarian loyalties exist within the military.
Ed O'Connell, a senior analyst with the Rand Corp., said in a telephone interview that the Iraqi military was chiefly built along sectarian lines. The majority are Shi'ites.
"There have been recent efforts to recruit the Sunni, but no one wants to die, so that has been largely unsuccessful," he said.
"These guys are not ready for prime time," said Mr. O'Connell. "These guys are nowhere near taking any sort of role to protect against sectarian violence."
"The idea that everyone is going to get along if we pull out is wishful thinking. If anything, it increases the chances of regional war," he said.
The bipartisan Iraq Study Group's report, to be released Wednesday, recommends a greater shift of security responsibility to Iraqi forces, the Associated Press said, quoting an official familiar with the group's deliberations.
According to the Brookings Institution's Iraq Index, Sunnis make up less than 10 percent of the existing forces, and out of the total Iraqi army of 300,000, about 80,000 were operational.
Brookings puts the insurgency and militia forces at between 20,000 and 30,000. Radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr claims he can raise 1 million people to his cause. One of his followers earlier this year said Sheik al-Sadr's Mahdi Army had about 200,000 armed supporters and was trying to recruit more.
Sheik al-Sadr is Mr. al-Maliki's mainstay of support. His level of influence became clear this week when he led a boycott of the parliament and five ministers walked out of the Cabinet to protest Mr. al-Maliki's summit with President Bush in Jordan.
Mr. al-Maliki's hold on power became more fragile yesterday when his vice president, Tariq al-Hashemi, said he wanted the current government gone and a new coalition put into place, the Associated Press reported.
In violence yesterday, the U.S. military reported the deaths of two soldiers. Iraqi officials said 47 persons had been killed, including 37 whose bodies were found dumped in various regions of the country.
December 1, 2006
Pg. 13
Security command out of reach
By Sharon Behn, Washington Times
Sectarian allegiances have weakened Iraq's army, say analysts who question assertions by the Bush administration that the military is free from the religious strife that riddles the police force.
Moreover, pushing the fledgling military to solve the country's vicious conflicts is not a realistic solution, and pulling out U.S. forces could open the way for a regional war, they warn.
"The capabilities of the Iraqi army, national police and police force have been systematically exaggerated," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
"The reality is that out of the supposed Iraqi battalions, which are formed and which are in the lead, only a small fraction actually exist and have combat capability," he said.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said yesterday that in seven months the Iraqi military would be ready to take over the country's security.
"I can say that Iraqi forces will be ready, fully ready, to receive this command and to command its own forces, and I can tell you that by next June our forces will be ready," he told ABC News.
Bob Perito, senior program officer at the United States Institute of Peace, questioned that assessment.
"They don't have any logistics, armor or support capacity. It is a light infantry with no heavy weapons, no lift," he said.
"The U.S. Marines are having trouble holding their own, and our soldiers are the best in the world. It is a little hard to see how recently trained Iraqis without all those things would do it," Mr. Perito said.
Although the Iraqi army largely has stayed out of the sectarian violence, he said, sectarian loyalties exist within the military.
Ed O'Connell, a senior analyst with the Rand Corp., said in a telephone interview that the Iraqi military was chiefly built along sectarian lines. The majority are Shi'ites.
"There have been recent efforts to recruit the Sunni, but no one wants to die, so that has been largely unsuccessful," he said.
"These guys are not ready for prime time," said Mr. O'Connell. "These guys are nowhere near taking any sort of role to protect against sectarian violence."
"The idea that everyone is going to get along if we pull out is wishful thinking. If anything, it increases the chances of regional war," he said.
The bipartisan Iraq Study Group's report, to be released Wednesday, recommends a greater shift of security responsibility to Iraqi forces, the Associated Press said, quoting an official familiar with the group's deliberations.
According to the Brookings Institution's Iraq Index, Sunnis make up less than 10 percent of the existing forces, and out of the total Iraqi army of 300,000, about 80,000 were operational.
Brookings puts the insurgency and militia forces at between 20,000 and 30,000. Radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr claims he can raise 1 million people to his cause. One of his followers earlier this year said Sheik al-Sadr's Mahdi Army had about 200,000 armed supporters and was trying to recruit more.
Sheik al-Sadr is Mr. al-Maliki's mainstay of support. His level of influence became clear this week when he led a boycott of the parliament and five ministers walked out of the Cabinet to protest Mr. al-Maliki's summit with President Bush in Jordan.
Mr. al-Maliki's hold on power became more fragile yesterday when his vice president, Tariq al-Hashemi, said he wanted the current government gone and a new coalition put into place, the Associated Press reported.
In violence yesterday, the U.S. military reported the deaths of two soldiers. Iraqi officials said 47 persons had been killed, including 37 whose bodies were found dumped in various regions of the country.