Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Washington Post
February 21, 2008
Pg. 3
Government Issues Warnings, but Scientists Discount Danger
By Marc Kaufman and Josh White, Washington Post Staff Writers
The Bush administration sounded new warnings yesterday about the risk of exposure to toxic fuel from the out-of-control spy satellite that it plans to shoot down, even as some scientists said their calculations showed the chances of actual harm are close to zero.
After the Navy said its "window of opportunity" to shoot down the satellite with a ship-based missile is now open, two federal agencies yesterday released information about how to handle a possible hydrazine incident.
The Centers for Disease Control sent out a health advisory starkly describing the risks posed by the rocket fuel, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency released a newly published, 18-page document detailing how emergency workers should handle the substance.
The "First Responder Guide for Space Object Re-Entry" was sent by e-mail to communities across the nation, and the administration also mobilized six of what it called "joint interagency task forces" around the country to reach the site of any satellite debris impact. The steps were taken in coordination with the Defense Department.
But several scientists, including Massachusetts Institute of Technology research professor Geoffrey Forden, said they had estimated the risks of exposure to the satellite and its components, including the fuel, and found them to be exceedingly low.
Forden found a 3 percent chance that an individual somewhere in the world would be injured by the hydrazine if any fell to Earth. For a resident around Los Angeles, for example, the risk of being harmed is one in a billion, Forden said. The government estimates the risk of being struck by lightning at one in 700,000.
Forden and his colleagues concluded that the possibility of the toxic gas making it to land is very close to zero. "The amount of pressure on that tank will be enormous -- about 50 times the gravitational force on Earth," he said. "We can't see how it would possibly make it through the atmosphere."
Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell separately concluded the chance that a piece of the satellite might strike someone directly is about one in a million. The chances the hydrazine will land within 100 yards of someone if the tank makes it through Earth's atmosphere, he said, are higher: about 2 in 100. But "if people just walk away from it, they won't be harmed at all," he said.
Both McDowell and Forden said that NASA and the Defense Department should release the data used by the government to conclude the health risks were so great that the satellite should be destroyed by a missile -- at an estimated cost of more than $30 million -- before it enters Earth's atmosphere and breaks apart.
Skeptics in the arms control community have speculated that the administration chose to undertake the shoot-down partly so it can test potential anti-satellite weapons and missile defense technology. Some have also speculated that Washington may want to send a message to China, which conducted an anti-satellite test last year, or to keep potentially valuable technology from falling into the wrong hands.
Pentagon officials have denied the claim and said they take the risks seriously, noting that a similar tank on the space shuttle Columbia fell unbroken to Earth during a 2003 disaster. Yesterday's CDC health advisory said, for example, that those who breathe hydrazine can suffer convulsions, tremors or seizures.
"There's only a small chance the hydrazine will land in a populated area or cause injury or death, but there's still a chance that it could," said Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman. "The United States has a chance to mitigate that risk or possibly eliminate it. We have this capability and can reduce the risk to human life on this planet, and that's why we're doing it."
Forden and others say it is unfair to compare the Columbia mishap with what might happen with the spy satellite. While the Columbia broke apart at about 40 miles above Earth, and was traveling considerably more slowly than a satellite, this satellite is expected to break apart not long after it hits the atmosphere, at about 80 miles above Earth, giving it longer to burn up.
Although the Navy said it had positioned and prepared three ships in the Pacific by yesterday, it appeared that weather and rough seas in the Pacific Ocean would prevent a first intercept attempt last night.
Senior defense officials said the Navy will have less than one minute during each day before Feb. 29 to hit the satellite directly with an SM-3 missile, which does not carry an explosive warhead. Officials say they want to take advantage of daylight and the heat generated by the sun's reflection, and they want to ensure that the destroyed satellite passes over water or unpopulated areas to minimize potential damage.
"Each day there will be one window," said a senior military official who briefed Pentagon reporters yesterday. "You have to be at exactly the right place, exactly the right time, and all criteria have to line up exactly right."
Once it enters Earth's atmosphere, the satellite could tumble and be nearly impossible to track.
February 21, 2008
Pg. 3
Government Issues Warnings, but Scientists Discount Danger
By Marc Kaufman and Josh White, Washington Post Staff Writers
The Bush administration sounded new warnings yesterday about the risk of exposure to toxic fuel from the out-of-control spy satellite that it plans to shoot down, even as some scientists said their calculations showed the chances of actual harm are close to zero.
After the Navy said its "window of opportunity" to shoot down the satellite with a ship-based missile is now open, two federal agencies yesterday released information about how to handle a possible hydrazine incident.
The Centers for Disease Control sent out a health advisory starkly describing the risks posed by the rocket fuel, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency released a newly published, 18-page document detailing how emergency workers should handle the substance.
The "First Responder Guide for Space Object Re-Entry" was sent by e-mail to communities across the nation, and the administration also mobilized six of what it called "joint interagency task forces" around the country to reach the site of any satellite debris impact. The steps were taken in coordination with the Defense Department.
But several scientists, including Massachusetts Institute of Technology research professor Geoffrey Forden, said they had estimated the risks of exposure to the satellite and its components, including the fuel, and found them to be exceedingly low.
Forden found a 3 percent chance that an individual somewhere in the world would be injured by the hydrazine if any fell to Earth. For a resident around Los Angeles, for example, the risk of being harmed is one in a billion, Forden said. The government estimates the risk of being struck by lightning at one in 700,000.
Forden and his colleagues concluded that the possibility of the toxic gas making it to land is very close to zero. "The amount of pressure on that tank will be enormous -- about 50 times the gravitational force on Earth," he said. "We can't see how it would possibly make it through the atmosphere."
Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell separately concluded the chance that a piece of the satellite might strike someone directly is about one in a million. The chances the hydrazine will land within 100 yards of someone if the tank makes it through Earth's atmosphere, he said, are higher: about 2 in 100. But "if people just walk away from it, they won't be harmed at all," he said.
Both McDowell and Forden said that NASA and the Defense Department should release the data used by the government to conclude the health risks were so great that the satellite should be destroyed by a missile -- at an estimated cost of more than $30 million -- before it enters Earth's atmosphere and breaks apart.
Skeptics in the arms control community have speculated that the administration chose to undertake the shoot-down partly so it can test potential anti-satellite weapons and missile defense technology. Some have also speculated that Washington may want to send a message to China, which conducted an anti-satellite test last year, or to keep potentially valuable technology from falling into the wrong hands.
Pentagon officials have denied the claim and said they take the risks seriously, noting that a similar tank on the space shuttle Columbia fell unbroken to Earth during a 2003 disaster. Yesterday's CDC health advisory said, for example, that those who breathe hydrazine can suffer convulsions, tremors or seizures.
"There's only a small chance the hydrazine will land in a populated area or cause injury or death, but there's still a chance that it could," said Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman. "The United States has a chance to mitigate that risk or possibly eliminate it. We have this capability and can reduce the risk to human life on this planet, and that's why we're doing it."
Forden and others say it is unfair to compare the Columbia mishap with what might happen with the spy satellite. While the Columbia broke apart at about 40 miles above Earth, and was traveling considerably more slowly than a satellite, this satellite is expected to break apart not long after it hits the atmosphere, at about 80 miles above Earth, giving it longer to burn up.
Although the Navy said it had positioned and prepared three ships in the Pacific by yesterday, it appeared that weather and rough seas in the Pacific Ocean would prevent a first intercept attempt last night.
Senior defense officials said the Navy will have less than one minute during each day before Feb. 29 to hit the satellite directly with an SM-3 missile, which does not carry an explosive warhead. Officials say they want to take advantage of daylight and the heat generated by the sun's reflection, and they want to ensure that the destroyed satellite passes over water or unpopulated areas to minimize potential damage.
"Each day there will be one window," said a senior military official who briefed Pentagon reporters yesterday. "You have to be at exactly the right place, exactly the right time, and all criteria have to line up exactly right."
Once it enters Earth's atmosphere, the satellite could tumble and be nearly impossible to track.